Ammonia
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
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Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
HSFO defies the green tide
HSFO defies the green tide
New York, 8 May (Argus) — High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), once seen as a fading relic, is proving remarkably resilient (see table) despite the maritime sector's push toward decarbonization. The fuel remains economically attractive thanks to persistent scrubber investments and regulatory frameworks that fail to fully penalize its use. Under the EU notation, HSFO and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) are assigned the same calorific and greenhouse gas emission values. This equivalence means that ships fitted with scrubbers — systems that strip out sulphur oxides — face no additional penalties for choosing HSFO over VLSFO. As a result, greenhouse gas fees under FuelEU Maritime and the EU emissions trading system (ETS) offer no disincentive for scrubber users to stick with cheaper HSFO. In March 2025, the VLSFO-HSFO spread in Singapore narrowed to just $44/t, the lowest since the IMO 2020 sulphur cap took effect. At that level, a scrubber on a capesize bulker pays for itself in under two years. When the spread averaged $122/t in 2024, the payback period was about eight months. Even in regulated markets like Europe, economics favor HSFO. Under the EU ETS, ships operating in, out of or between EU ports must pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions in 2025. In Rotterdam, bunker prices including ETS surcharges still favor HSFO: $575/t for HSFO, $605/t for VLSFO, and $783/t for a B30 Used cooking oil methyl ester blend. While biofuels, methanol and LNG are inching forward in market share, they remain cost-prohibitive. In the meantime, HSFO, with scrubber backing, continues to punch above its environmental weight. By Stefka Wechsler Selected ports marine fuel demand t % Chg 1Q 25-1Q 24 1Q 2025 less 1Q 2024 1Q 2025 1Q 2024 Singapore HSFO 1.0% 33,160.0 4,898,372.0 4,865,212.0 VLSFO/ULSFO -13.0% -1,005,951.0 6,829,667.0 7,835,618.0 MGO/MDO -5.0% -49,012.0 907,874.0 956,886.0 biofuel blends 187.0% 237,552.0 364,418.0 126,866.0 LNG 34.0% 25,935.0 101,856.0 75,921.0 Rotterdam HSFO 1.0% 11,169.0 829,197.0 818,028.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 14.0% 118,670.0 976,249.0 857,579.0 MGO/MDO 3.0% 9,662.0 393,071.0 383,409.0 biofuel blends -60.0% -158,597.0 104,037.0 262,634.0 LNG 7.0% 7.0 104.0 97.0 Panama HSFO 22.0% 65,266.0 362,388.0 297,122.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 25.0% 177,296.0 878,776.0 701,480.0 MGO/MDO 22.0% 27,097.0 150,980.0 123,883.0 — Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Rotterdam Port Authority and Panama Canal Authority Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia
IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia
New York, 7 May (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) proposed global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism might not drive significant uptake of green methanol and green ammonia by 2035, given current market prices. Despite introducing penalties on high-emission fuels use and tradable surplus credits for low-emission fuels, the mechanism does not sufficiently close the cost gap for green alternatives. Under the system, starting in 2028 ship operators will face a two-tier penalty: $100/t CO₂e for emissions between the base and direct GHG intensity limit, and $380/t CO₂e for those exceeding the looser base limit. These thresholds will tighten annually through 2035. Ship operators can earn tradable credits for overcompliance when their GHG emissions fall below the direct limit. Assuming a surplus CO₂e credit value of $72/t — mirroring April 2025's average EU emissions trading system price — green ammonia would earn about $215/t in surplus credits in 2028 (see chart) . This barely offsets its April spot price of $2,830/t VLSFO equivalent in northwest Europe. Bio-methanol would receive about $175/t in credits, offering minimal relief on its $2,318/t April spot price. Currently, unsubsidized northwest Europe bio-LNG sits mid-range among bunker fuel options under IMO's emissions framework. While more expensive than HSFO, grey LNG, and B30 bioblends, the bio-LNG is cheaper than B100 (pure used cooking oil methyl ester), green ammonia, and bio-methanol. To become cost-competitive with unsubsidized bio-LNG — priced at $1,185/t in April 2025 — green ammonia and bio-methanol prices would need to fall by 57pc and 49pc, respectively, to around $1,220/t VLSFOe and $1,180/t VLSFOe by 2028. Unless green fuel prices drop significantly or fossil fuel prices rise, the IMO's structure alone provides insufficient economic incentive to accelerate green ammonia and bio-methanol adoption at scale. By Stefka Wechsler NW Europe, fuel prices plus IMO penalties and credits Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Low-carbon H2 hits the skids with offtake lagging
Low-carbon H2 hits the skids with offtake lagging
Houston, 5 May (Argus) — Multiple North American proposals to make hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture have taken a pause as tariffs add to cost uncertainties and potential buyers balk at making long-term commitments at current prices. Dow has iced its Path2Zero ethylene plant in Alberta that is to use low-carbon hydrogen supplied by Linde. Air Products has delayed the start-up of a hydrogen and ammonia plant in Louisiana. And US nitrogen fertilizer producer LSB Industries said it is [pausing development] of an ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel in Texas. Lower-carbon hydrogen produced from autothermal reforming with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is still expected to lead the nascent sector's development, with renewable-powered production seen as too costly for general takeoff. Most large-scale low-carbon hydrogen projects in the US have focused on exports in the form of ammonia or methanol to Asia and Europe, where governments have promised more support to implement decarbonization mandates. Long-term offtake agreements have so far lagged as regulatory uncertainty, cost concerns and now the added threat of US import tariffs muddle demand perspectives. "Demand has certainly ramped up slower than expected," said LSB chief executive Mark Behrman in an interview with Argus . "In the conversations that we've had with many offtakers in Asia and Europe, and even here domestically, there's been a lack of willingness to commit at the prices that we were able to talk about based on our capital costs," said Behrman, who also cited uncertainty around tariffs as a complicating factor. For long-term supply contracts, buyers were seeking prices below $600/metric tonne fob, said Behrman. LSB partnered with industrial gas firm Air Liquide, Japanese oil company Inpex and Vopak to build the 1.1mn t/yr ammonia facility in Texas. Air Liquide would supply the project with low-carbon hydrogen. The project's costs were largely calculated using 45Q tax credits that are awarded to companies using CCS to reduce emissions. But the release of 45V guidelines in January seemed to offer the possibility of accessing the more lucrative hydrogen production incentive because of a new section pertaining to cryogenic separation, a process that captures carbon dioxide from industrial gas streams, said LSB vice-president of clean energy, Jakob Krummenacher, while speaking at Argus' recent Green Ammonia North America conference in Houston. Cryogenic separation generates more steam than conventional solvent absorption and, if that steam is exported to another process, it may lower the carbon intensity of the resulting hydrogen to such an extent that the project could potentially qualify for 45V, Krummenacher said. As a result, many of the assumptions baked into the engineering studies related to the Houston ammonia venture have to go back to the drawing board. Air Liquide did not respond to requests for comment. If Air Liquide can avail itself of 45V, capital costs may decline and result in more competitive offers to the market. But Berhman cautioned against concluding the project will resume if it is found to qualify for 45V. "We still need a customer to move forward," Behrman said. Dow, which planned to build a hydrogen-fueled ethylene cracker at a petrochemical complex northeast of Edmonton, Alberta, paused its multibillion-dollar project citing uncertainty around US tariffs and the potential for retaliatory tariffs by US trading partners. Linde, which announced last year it would invest $2bn to build a low-carbon hydrogen facility to supply Dow's Path2Zero project, has not responded to questions about what Dow's pause means for its plans in Alberta. Linde has said it was working with Dow to them meet their goals while maintaining Linde's interest in the project. Air Products, meanwhile, further pushed back its $7bn Louisiana low-carbon hydrogen plant to late 2028 or early 2029 as it seeks to control costs by delegating CCS operations and ammonia production to partners. There have been some exceptions to the delays. Early last month, fertilizer producer CF Industries said it was moving ahead on a $4bn ammonia venture with Japan's Jera and investment firm Mitsui at its Blue Point complex in Louisiana. LSB similarly said it is forging ahead with plans to produce low-carbon ammonia at its existing plant in El Dorado, Arkansas, where it will decarbonize production by adding a CCS facility that will be operated by Lapis Carbon Solutions. "We're still big believers in global decarbonization," Behrman said. "I believe that new demand for power generation, power supply, and of course, the marine industry will evolve. I just think it's going to take longer than what everyone initially thought." By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil Aneel rejects grid access for green H2 projects
Brazil Aneel rejects grid access for green H2 projects
Paris, 30 April (Argus) — Brazil's electricity regulation agency Aneel has rejected requests for electricity grid connections filed by two renewable hydrogen projects in the northeast of the country — but the decision can be reverted, according to one of the companies. Spanish project developer Solatio, which is planning a renewable ammonia project in the state of Piaui, had its request for a grid connection rejected by Aneel in a resolution published last week. In March, Solatio received approval from Brazil's industry minister to build a 3GW electrolyser facility at the Parnaiba Export Processing Zone, with operations expected to start in early 2029. The firm had previously said it aims to achieve over 11GW of electrolyser capacity in Piaui in the long run. Aneel's decision to reject access to the grid was based on recommendations made by Brazil's grid operator ONS, which found the grid connection request to not be feasible as it "could result in overload and risks of voltage collapse". In the technical note, Aneel said that this decision "does not constitute a sanction or opposition to the investment itself". Instead it is a reflection of the "current technical limitations" of the power system. The regulator expects that "in the near future, structural works capable of safely serving large loads in the northeast will be proposed and granted". Brazil's energy ministry has already requested energy planning body EPE an expansion of 4GW of capacity in the northeast grid to accommodate demand from renewable hydrogen projects in the coming years. Solatio has already submitted a "new technical solution" that was designed with support of the Piaui government and state investment promotion agency Invest Piaui and that it could be approved soon, the developer told Argus . Earlier this month, renewables firm Casa dos Ventos also had a grid connection request rejected for its 900,000 t/yr renewable ammonia project planned at the Pecem port complex, in Brazil's Ceara state. Output from the Iracema project could supply TotalEnergies , which is a shareholder in Casa dos Ventos. Casa dos Ventos' request included a grid link to power a data centre project, which was refused by Aneel too. Aneel has asked ONS to provide "the set of technical information" for its recommendation and increase transparency on its assessments. Casa dos Ventos was not immediately available to comment. Hydrogen industry participants in Brazil have grown increasingly concerned about power grid bottlenecks. Even though the government has approved plans to expand grid capacity across the country, the sector worries that this could come too late for projects that hope to be early beneficiaries of Brazil's tax credit scheme unless the procedures are sped up. By Pamela Machado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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