Ammonia
Market moving insight on clean and conventional ammonia – delivering robust price assessments, actionable commentary, powerful data, vital analysis and outlooks
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
Our industry-leading price assessments, powerful data, vital analysis and robust outlooks will support you through:
- Ammonia price assessments (daily and weekly), some of which are basis for Argus ammonia futures contracts, Ammonia forward curve data and clean ammonia cost assessments and modelled weekly prices
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of conventional and clean ammonia prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
Q&A: GH2 Solar outlines gaps slowing India’s H2 plans
Q&A: GH2 Solar outlines gaps slowing India’s H2 plans
Mumbai, 9 December (Argus) — Indian renewable energy firm GH2 Solar recently began construction of an alkaline electrolyser manufacturing plant in Madhya Pradesh, with an initial capacity of 105 MW/yr that it aims to expand to 500 MW/yr. The plant is developed with South Korea's AHES and UK-based Rhizome2, and received roughly 1.6bn rupees ($17.8mn) under India's second electrolyser manufacturing subsidy round. GH2 Solar also plans to build its own renewable hydrogen production facilities, having secured three-year subsidies for 10,500 t/yr of output. Argus spoke with managing director Anurag Jain and vice-president of business development and corporate strategy Sanjeev Sharma about the company's plans, views on Indian policy and localisation of key components for electrolysers. Edited highlights follow: What are the main challenges that GH2 Solar and other Indian companies face in bringing hydrogen and electrolyser projects to fruition? The challenges are quite multifaceted. For GH2 Solar, and most other Indian developers, the biggest hurdle is project bankability. The policy direction is clear, but long-term offtake certainty and stable price signals are still evolving, making lenders cautious. These are highly capital-intensive projects that combine renewable generation, balance-of-plant and storage, which means long financing cycles. Another issue is the intermittency of renewable energy, which affects electrolyser efficiency and utilisation. Managing that through batteries, round-the-clock power or hydrogen storage adds cost and complexity. India still imports critical components such as membranes and catalysts, so building a resilient domestic supply chain will take time. Add to that the need for skilled manpower, unified standards and insurance frameworks — it's a steep but achievable learning curve. How do you view India's tenders? Are they effective in driving adoption? The tenders have created momentum. The production-linked incentives (PLIs) and the National Green Hydrogen Mission bids have drawn strong private participation and signalled government commitment. But we must recognise they are first-generation schemes. Some frameworks expect immediate commercial viability and deep localisation, which can be unrealistic early on. We need longer offtake tenors, payment security mechanisms and phased localisation milestones. But the direction is right. The tenders have put India firmly on the global hydrogen map. What additional policy or regulatory measures could accelerate the sector? India should move quickly to introduce contracts for difference (CfDs) or carbon CfDs to bridge the cost gap between grey and green hydrogen. That single mechanism can transform project bankability. A national hydrogen exchange or government-anchored offtake pool would aggregate demand and provide transparent price discovery. We also need a payment security fund, harmonised pipeline and grid codes, and continued fiscal support for electrolyser research and development, especially for membranes and catalysts. What are the biggest challenges for developing a fully indigenous electrolyser manufacturing ecosystem in India? True localisation goes far beyond assembly. The challenge lies in mastering advanced materials — membranes, coated bipolar plates and catalysts — and building high-precision chemical and metallurgical capabilities. Domestic demand must scale enough to justify the capital intensity of these facilities. We also need accredited testing and certification centres in India to validate stack life and performance so that Indian-made systems are globally bankable. How can project financing for green hydrogen become more viable? Financing will follow predictability. Mechanisms such as CfDs, minimum-volume guarantees or sovereign-backed payment windows can provide stable revenue floors. Blended finance — mixing concessional debt and DFI [development finance institutions] participation — will lower the cost of capital. Allowing hydrogen assets to earn ancillary-service revenue from the grid can also enhance project economics. And finally, standardised project templates and due-diligence protocols will shorten financial-closure timelines. Offtake remains a bottleneck. What measures could resolve this? We need an aggregated demand framework. A government-backed platform that bundles demand from refineries, fertilisers, city-gas networks and even corporate buyers could issue unified offtake tenders. Sectoral mandates — such as blending targets in piped natural gas or compressed natural gas and substitution quotas in refineries — will anchor baseline demand. Tradeable green-molecule certificates would let corporates purchase decarbonisation credits even if they don't consume hydrogen physically. Internationally, India should also participate in global offtake auctions with the EU, Japan and Korea. What is GH2 Solar's long-term strategy for green hydrogen and its derivatives? Our strategy is to create an end-to-end green hydrogen ecosystem — from renewable electrons to green molecules. We're setting up a 105 MW/yr electrolyser manufacturing facility in Madhya Pradesh. Civil works are progressing, equipment orders are being worked out and pilot production is planned for late 2026, with full-scale operations set for 2027. We are simultaneously developing green hydrogen production facilities. In the short term, our focus is on domestic decarbonisation — supplying green hydrogen to refineries, fertiliser and industrial clients. In the medium term, we will expand into green ammonia — we have already announced a 100,000 t/yr green ammonia facility with two partners — and e-methanol and SAF [sustainable aviation fuel], especially for export markets. What is your view on the use of Chinese electrolysers in Indian projects? It is a pragmatic bridge. Chinese systems are currently cost-competitive and available quickly, which helps early adopters prove the business case. But India must avoid long-term dependence. Every import should come with localisation and technology-transfer clauses so that we can build domestic capability over the next 3-5 years. Our goal should be cost parity and self-reliance, not permanent import dependence. GH2 Solar was awarded the support for the electrolyser capacity with high local-value-addition (LVA) targets. How will you achieve these? We have created a detailed localisation roadmap. In the first year, we will source and assemble all balance-of-plant, frames, power electronics and casing domestically, importing only few specialised components, achieving 80pc LVA. From year two onwards, we will indigenise stack components through technology partnerships with Indian material suppliers, reaching more than 90pc localisation. Which components still need to be imported? At present, we still need to import membranes, catalysts and coated bipolar plates — the high-tech core of the stack. Domestic production of these components should start in the next 18-36 months through our joint venture and targeted PLI support. With consistent policy and demand visibility, India can achieve full indigenous capability within five years. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pattern Energy pauses Newfoundland green H2 plan
Pattern Energy pauses Newfoundland green H2 plan
Houston, 26 November (Argus) — US clean energy developer Pattern Energy has suspended plans to build a renewable hydrogen and ammonia facility in Newfoundland and will instead move forward with a standalone wind farm. Pattern's Canadian subsidiary, Argentia Renewable Wind LP, withdrew an environmental-assessment request from the province's Department of Environment, Conservation and Climate Change for a project that would have harnessed wind energy to produce hydrogen and green fuels like ammonia for export to northwest Europe. Pattern will submit a new request in the coming weeks for a wind farm to provide power to the local grid, the company said in an email. "We are preparing a new Environmental Assessment (EA) that reflects a phased approach," said Frank Davis, head of Canada for Pattern Energy in a statement to Argus . "The revised EA outlines a wind-generation project designed to deliver energy to Newfoundland & Labrador." Six companies have received permission from the province to pursue wind power-to-hydrogen projects to export either hydrogen or ammonia to buyers in Europe. Project time lines have slipped or stalled as that demand has failed to materialize as expected, sparking speculation that developers could pivot to projects providing only wind power. Pattern did not comment on what factors lead to its decision to withdraw the hydrogen project for consideration. Pattern originally conceived building a 300MW wind farm to power the production of hydrogen and green ammonia in partnership with the Port of Argentia. Earlier this year, the Port signed a letter of intent with the Hamburg Port Authority to collaborate on a so-called "hydrogen export/import corridor" between Newfoundland and Germany. The facility would have included storage and distribution infrastructure for an initial capital investment of around C$1.4bn, according to company documents. The company is now looking to build 150MW of wind power as a first phase and said "potential future phases" involve hydrogen and green fuels. In July, utility Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro issued a request for expressions of interest to supply energy and/or capacity to the province's Island Interconnected System, seeking 150mw of firm capacity and up to 500GWh of firm energy. By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Marine decarbonisation to continue despite delay
Q&A: Marine decarbonisation to continue despite delay
Sao Paulo, 24 November (Argus) — The maritime sector is staying on course towards decarbonisation, with marine biofuels and LNG gaining traction in the short term, despite the IMO postponing its net-zero framework vote until October 2026, DNV global decarbonisation director Jason Stefanatos said. No single fuel is likely to be adopted at scale in the medium to long term, and alternative marine fuels will coexist as part of the path to net zero, he said. Edited highlights follow. IMO delegates have postponed a vote on the net-zero framework until next year. What's your view on the delay, and how might it impact the adoption of alternative bunker fuels? The postponement of the IMO net-zero framework highlights the need for greater clarity on its practical implementation. But while the delay creates some uncertainty, the industry's decarbonisation targets remain unchanged. DNV's October 2025 AFI data confirms that the industry's commitment to alternative fuels remains strong Which fuels are the leading trend in maritime decarbonisation in the short and long term? In the short term, both LNG and biofuels are leading trends in maritime decarbonisation because of LNG bunkering infrastructure and because biofuels are drop-in. Over the longer term, the transition will diversify, adding more fuels in the mix, with methanol, ammonia, hydrogen and e-fuels expected to play roles as technology, supply and regulatory frameworks mature. There is no trend in the long term. The most suitable fuel and technology will be determined by each operator's specific fleet characteristics, operational requirements, overall commercial objectives, as well as global and regional geopolitical decisions and developments. With the energy transition underway in the maritime sector, is ethanol an option for mid- and long-term decarbonisation? Ethanol is technically feasible as a marine fuel, and has gained more popularity in the past months due to technical developments by engine makers and developments on the supply side. Although the vast majority today does not come from sustainable biomass, it is a promising new fuel that could play a role in the future. Its similarities with methanol enable methanol-fuelled vessels to easily switch to ethanol if needed, providing further fuel flexibility, which is important during high uncertainty times. E-fuels have been identified as a potential net-zero fuel. How do you see their development as a marine fuel, considering they are not currently available at commercial scale? E-fuels are presented as a long-term solution for maritime decarbonisation, but their commercial availability and cost competitiveness remain challenges for widespread adoption. Demand is expected to grow as regulatory requirements tighten, but supply will depend on large-scale investments in renewable energy and production capacity. Ammonia is a possible alternative fuel for the future, but barriers to its adoption remain, DNV said in a recent publication. Why does it make sense to invest in ammonia as a bunker fuel when other fuels are more established and safer? Ammonia has benefits and barriers on its adoption. On the benefits side, ammonia is a fuel without carbon content, can act as a hydrogen carrier, and has some basic infrastructure and technology in place, as there are already vessels operating with ammonia. On the other hand, safety and technical issues will require a lot of industry effort to be overcome. The FuelEU Maritime regulation introduced a 2pc reduction target for GHG emissions from vessels in 2025. Individual EU countries are implementing their own RED III regulations this year. Are these emission policies driving demand for alternative fuels, or should the EU consider tightening its restrictions? And what do these regulations mean for the wider global market? These regulations are drivers for alternative fuel demand in shipping and have contributed to accelerating investment in low-GHG fuels and technologies. However, the global impact will depend on how IMO regulations will be agreed and defined by the delegates. Some uncertainty remains as further regional regulations could lead to uneven competition and increased complexity for international operators. By Natália Coelho and Gabriel Tassi Lara Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Hiringa aims to grow Australia’s green NH3 market
Q&A: Hiringa aims to grow Australia’s green NH3 market
Sydney, 21 November (Argus) — New Zealand-based hydrogen developer Hiringa Energy has begun construction of its 15MW Good Earth Green Hydrogen and Ammonia (GEGHA) project near Moree in northwest New South Wales (NSW). Argus spoke with the firm's commercial and business development lead Jack Rickers on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Hydrogen Summit in Sydney about the company's future plans. Can you talk us through the GEGHA project and what stage it is at? We're aiming to be operational in the first quarter of 2027, [joint venture partner] Sundown Pastoral saw a similar project that we were doing over in New Zealand, where we working with a fertilizer manufacturer to decarbonise urea feedstocks. We built a 41MWh BESS system at GEGHA providing affordable, reliable supply of power into the electrolysers to make hydrogen for anhydrous ammonia supply. What is the opportunity for expanding this project into agricultural markets in Australia? Anhydrous ammonia isn't a big market on the east coast of Australia, a lot of growers used to use anhydrous but shifted due to supply chain security. What we're doing is transferring that supply chain to provide price competitiveness against fossil fuel products. More importantly for a lot of growers though is the security and the availability of that fertiliser input. What are the other uses for the hydrogen GEGHA produces? Some of the hydrogen is going to displace diesel in irrigation pumping as well as in other mobile and static on-farm equipment. Fuel and fertilizer produce the greatest emissions but also form the highest costs for these farming operations, so via GEGHA we're looking at low-carbon alternatives. What is the growth potential for green ammonia in Australia? If you look at the direct-use ammonia opportunity it's not large, I think it's averaged about 40,000-50,000 t/yr over the last 10 years. GEGHA is 4,500 t/yr but we've got a couple of other expansion projects underway. We got quite a significant [A$35.8mn ($23mn)] government grant for GEHGA, but what we're working on now is improving the economy of scale, by doing it at about five times the volume we don't think that we need the government to achieve competitive pricing of those products into the market. We've got two other projects planned in NSW, both at the 20,000 t/yr scale, meeting the market's anhydrous demand. The broader nitrogen market, though, is really our target market — which is primarily the 2mn t/yr urea market in Australia's eastern states. Farmers prefer that granular or liquid form but we're having a look at other fertilizer derivatives using anhydrous ammonia as feedstock. What model does Hiringa see as ideal for growing its anhydrous ammonia footprint? We're looking at when does it become expensive for traditional fertilizers and how does that help us compete? That's around what that delivered price is so we're producing hub and spoke projects — rather than going giga-scale then trucking [fertilizer] 500km inland, we're doing it within those regions where people are going to use it, so we don't have that transport cost. We're looking at another 20,000 t/yr plant in the [NSW] Gwydir region, a 20,000 t/yr plant in the Riverina and probably a third plant in the Darling Downs of Queensland. Why have you targeted cotton-growing regions so far? Is it a crop that supports the margins involved? Cotton uses about 75pc of Australia's direct-use anhydrous supply, it's the largest direct market for us to address. But as we start to move from that 5,000 t/yr to 20,000 t/yr scale we're looking at what other cropping products make sense, how do we produce a product suitable for winter [grains] cropping to smooth that seasonality curve of [summer-grown] cotton. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Spotlight content
Browse the latest thought leadership produced by our global team of experts.
