Ammonia
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
Our industry-leading price assessments, powerful data, vital analysis and robust outlooks will support you through:
- Ammonia price assessments (daily and weekly), some of which are basis for Argus ammonia futures contracts, Ammonia forward curve data and clean ammonia cost assessments and modelled weekly prices
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of conventional and clean ammonia prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
Japan’s Mol orders dual-fuel LPG, ammonia VLGCs
Japan’s Mol orders dual-fuel LPG, ammonia VLGCs
Tokyo, 16 May (Argus) — Japanese shipping firm Mitsui OSK Lines (Mol) has ordered two dual-fuel very large gas carriers (VLGCs) to deliver LPG and ammonia, with commissioning expected in 2026. Mol has reached a deal with TotalEnergies' shipping arm CSSA Chartering and Shipping Services to charter two 88,000m³ VLGCs to deliver LPG and ammonia, although the specific time period is undisclosed. The vessel will be built by South Korean shipbuilder Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries, which has developed an engine that can use LPG and fuel oil. Japan's LPG consumption totalled 11.8mn t in the 2023-24 fiscal year ending 31 March, down by 3.2pc from a year earlier, according to the Japan LP Gas Association. Japan's trade and industry ministry expects the downwards trend will be driven further by technology innovation of high efficiency equipment. But its expects ammonia demand as a fuel to increase to 3mn t/yr by 2030 and to 30mn t/yr by 2050. Japan has set a goal of a 20pc ammonia co-firing at domestic coal-fired power plants by 2030 and above 50pc by 2050 to achieve the country's 2050 decarbonisation goal. By Reina Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Lack of infrastructure to hamper VLAC development
Lack of infrastructure to hamper VLAC development
London, 10 May (Argus) — Development of a very large ammonia carrier (VLAC) market could be delayed by a lack of terminal infrastructure to allow discharge of 40,000-60,000t cargoes, said Steem1960 ammonia shipbroker Lisa Maria Assmann at the Argus Clean Ammonia conference in Tokyo. Around 40 VLACs are scheduled to hit the water between 2026 and 2028, when an uptake in clean ammonia trade is likely to be pushed by public tenders from South Korea and Japan. "VLACs cannot discharge these large volumes using the existing infrastructure," Assmann said. "We have storages that are much smaller than that, terminals with draft issues, LOA (length overall) issues. With all these problems, I do not see these large volumes being discharged in a speedy manner in the short-term, not before 2035-40 at least." In the larger segment of gas carriers, the very large gas carriers (VLGCs) built between 2009 and 2022 cannot carry ammonia cargoes, according to the shipbroker. These vessels were built when there were no expectations of carrying ammonia at such volumes, and the capability was not included to save costs at that time. "By 2030 we may have about 150 VLGCs available to carry ammonia, either at 86pc or 95pc capacity, but that is still a discussion for the future because we still do not have the infrastructure in place for the discharge," Asmann said. Ship-to-ship transfers from larger to smaller vessels could be a solution in the medium term, Assmann said, but she pondered that even then there are regulation issues that would hamper its widespread use. By Yohanna Pinheiro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s J-Power steps up coal-fired power phase-out
Japan’s J-Power steps up coal-fired power phase-out
Osaka, 10 May (Argus) — Japanese power producer and wholesaler J-Power is stepping up efforts to halt operations of inefficient coal-fired power plants, while pushing ahead with decarbonisation of its existing plants by using clean fuels and technology. J-Power plans to scrap the 500MW Matsushima No.1 coal-fired unit by the end of March 2025 and the 250MW Takasago No.1 and No.2 coal-fired units by 2030, according to its 2024-26 business strategy announced on 9 May. It also aims to decommission or mothball the 700MW Takehara No.3 and the 1,000MW Matsuura No.1 coal-fired units in 2030. The combined capacity of the selected five coal-fired units accounts for 32pc of J-Power's total thermal capacity of 8,412MW, all fuelled by coal. While phasing out its ageing coal-fired capacity, J-Power is looking to co-fire with fuel ammonia at the 2,100MW Tachibanawan coal-fired plant sometime after 2030 and ensure it runs on 100pc ammonia subsequently. The company plans to increase the mixture of biomass at the 600MW Takehara No.1 unit, along with the installation of a carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology after 2030. The CCS technology will be also applied to the 1,000MW Matsuura No.2 unit, which is expected to co-fire ammonia, after 2030. J-Power plans to use hydrogen at the 1,200MW Isogo plant sometime after 2035. The company is also set to deploy integrated coal gasification combined-cycle and CCS technology at the 500MW Matsushima No.2 unit and the 150MW Ishikawa No.1 and No.2 units after 2035. The company aims to cut carbon dioxide emissions from its domestic power generation by 46pc by the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year against 2013-14 levels before achieving a net zero emissions goal by 2050. This is in line with Tokyo's emissions reduction target. The company aims to expand domestic annual renewable output by 4TWh by 2030-31 compared with 2022-23, along with decarbonising thermal capacity. Its renewable generation totalled 10.4TWh in 2023-24. Tokyo has pledged to phase out existing inefficient coal-fired capacity by 2030, which could target units with less than 42pc efficiency. The country's large-scale power producers have reduced annual power output from their inefficient coal-fired fleet by 13TWh to 103TWh in 2022-23 against 2019-20, according to a document unveiled by the trade and industry ministry on 8 May. It expects such power generation will fall further by more than 60TWh to 39.700TWh in 2030-31. Global pressure against coal-fired power generation has been growing. Energy ministers from G7 countries in late April pledged to phase out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 or "in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net zero pathways". By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Low US natgas prices help ammonia economics
Low US natgas prices help ammonia economics
Houston, 8 May (Argus) — Nitrogen fertilizer production costs in the US are primed to hit historically low levels through the third quarter, potentially creating favorable margin and arbitrage opportunities during the offseason as bloated natural gas inventories depress key feedstock prices. Estimated ammonia production costs for most US producers tied to Henry Hub natural gas prices have spent the last 12 consecutive weeks below $100/short ton (st) on sub-$2/mmBtu feedstock prices. They should benefit from sub-$3/mmBtu natural gas costs through October, based on the 7 May Nymex futures curve. A mild winter stemmed seasonal withdrawals from natural gas storage and mitigated heating demand. US natural gas inventories exited the 2023-24 winter at the highest seasonal levels in eight years. High inventories help contain US gas prices by easing concerns about spikes in demand or supply shortfalls. Slackened natural gas demand has continued through April and has maintained downward price pressure, even as producers curtail output. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that it expects inventory growth to lag average levels in the coming months as producers cut output in response to lower prices. But inventories were still expected to exit the injection season, when gas stockpiles are replenished to meet winter heating needs, at an all-time high above 4.1 Tcf, the EIA said. Natural gas is the primary feedstock for US ammonia producers, comprising on average 60-70pc of total production costs at current prices. Ammonia production costs have not spent this long below $100/st since May-July 2020, according to Argus data. Ammonia is a key feedstock for urea and UAN manufacturing. Sinking feedstock ammonia costs lowers the cost floor for upgraded nitrogen alternatives and fosters favorable margin opportunities. US producer CF Industries said during its first quarter results the energy curves between North America and Europe — with the latter a higher-cost ammonia production hub — remain wider than historical levels, creating potential arbitrage scenarios. Ammonia production costs based on the Dutch TTF natural gas day-ahead contract, which serves as the European benchmark, have averaged more than three-times more than those tied to Henry Hub since January, according to Argus data. "Longer term, we expect the global energy cost structure to continue to provide significant margin opportunities for our North American production network," CF chief executive Tony Will said during the company's earnings call. By Connor Hyde Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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