Ammonia
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
Our industry-leading price assessments, powerful data, vital analysis and robust outlooks will support you through:
- Ammonia price assessments (daily and weekly), some of which are basis for Argus ammonia futures contracts, Ammonia forward curve data and clean ammonia cost assessments and modelled weekly prices
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of conventional and clean ammonia prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
H2 groups, environmentalists disappointed by IMO deal
H2 groups, environmentalists disappointed by IMO deal
Hamburg, 14 April (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism may be insufficient to stimulate short-term uptake of clean hydrogen-based marine fuels and threatens decarbonisation targets, hydrogen industry associations and environmental groups said. Delegates approved a proposed mechanism at the IMO's 83rd Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting on 11 April. The proposal will be put to an adoption vote at the next MEPC in October after which the rules could enter into force in 2027. The IMO said its "net-zero framework is the first in the world to combine mandatory emissions limits and GHG pricing across an entire sector". But the agreement does not go far enough to drive extensive uptake of clean hydrogen and derivatives, such as ammonia and e-methanol, as the mechanism's design will encourage use of LNG and biofuels instead, at least in the short-term, according to industry participants and environmental bodies. "Delegates have agreed a measure that may lock in the use of environmentally destructive biofuels and LNG" instead of providing the incentives necessary "to jump start the transition" to e-fuels based on renewable hydrogen, said the Skies and Seas Hydrogen-fuels Accelerator Coalition's (Sasha) founder Aoife O'Leary. Brussels-based environmental group Transport & Environment (T&E) took a similar stance. While the IMO's agreement "creates a momentum for alternative marine fuels… it is the forest-destroying first generation biofuels that will get the biggest push for the next decade," the group's shipping director Faig Abbasov said. "Without better incentives for sustainable e-fuels from green hydrogen, it is impossible to decarbonise this heavy polluting industry." The criticism is directed primarily at the CO2 prices set under the two-tier system. The tier 2 price of $380/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) could encourage a shift away from diesel or other "high-emission fuels", but this would likely be to "relatively affordable biofuels" rather than "significantly cleaner alternatives such as green hydrogen-derived fuels", T&E said. Industry body the Green Hydrogen Organisation (GH2) noted that reducing the penalties to $100/t CO2e price for vessels that meet "base" targets could encourage companies using "LNG and more carbon intensive fuels" to "pay to pollute rather than comply over the next few years". The group criticised the lack of "a universal levy with a meaningful carbon price". It will be key to ensure that all emissions, including methane leakage, are comprehensively accounted for and that "direct and indirect land-use change from biofuels" is factored in, GH2 said. But despite the criticism, GH2 said the agreement "sends an important signal to green fuels producers to go forward with their projects". "The greenest fuels will be able to generate credits… which they can sell," the group said, adding that the IMO will agree "a mechanism to reward zero or near-zero emission ships by March 2027". This could drive an increase in orders for dual-fuel vessels that could eventually transition to hydrogen-based fuels, it said. Off target Some groups, including T&E, the Clean Shipping Coalition and the Global Maritime Forum, argue that the shipping industry will fail to meet emissions reduction targets with the proposed framework. The measures will "at best" provide emissions reductions of 10pc by 2030 and 60pc by 2040, far below the IMO's 2023 commitments to 30pc and 80pc, respectively, T&E said. The failure to send stronger signals for uptake of hydrogen-based fuels puts at risk a target of reaching 5pc fuel use that is zero- or near-zero emission by 2030 and the industry's entire 2050 net-zero goal, the Global Maritime Forum said. Other International shipping organisations, such as the International Chamber of Shipping and the European Community Shipowners Association, voiced support for the agreement although they acknowledged that it is "not perfect". By Stefan Krumpelmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global fertilizer affordability drops to 2½-year low
Global fertilizer affordability drops to 2½-year low
London, 24 March (Argus) — Global fertilizer affordability has dropped to its lowest in two and a half years, driven by firm phosphate and potash prices, while crop values have dipped to the lowest since 2020. Nutrient affordability fell to 0.82 points in March, the lowest since November 2022, Argus data show. An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability. The index has dropped owing to higher fertilizer prices for phosphates and potash, which were partly offset by a decline in urea prices. Crop prices have fallen for all major grains and oilseeds on trade tensions. Phosphate prices were supported by competing demand for limited supply. The absence of Chinese product from the global phosphates market since late 2024 has kept supply tight. Additionally, a lack of clarity surrounding China's return to the export market, while firm sulphur and sulphuric acid costs force domestic DAP/MAP prices higher, has prevented any softer sentiment in the region. Competition between India and Ethiopia has driven DAP demand east of Suez. A significant decline in stocks in India by the end of its high season forced buyers to remain in the market during the off season. This coincided with Ethiopia switching to import DAP from NPS from the third quarter of 2024, seeking over 1mn t of the product across regular tenders. Re-emerging interest from Latin America, and with China still out of the market, has allowed suppliers to raise MAP prices, while US DAP/MAP barge prices are firming again ahead of spring applications. On potash, MOP prices have been on the up this year, also driven by tight supply. Belarus' Belaruskali began major works at its fourth mine in January, which will reduce exports of white MOP by around 1mn t in the first half of 2025. In February, Uralkali announced that it will undertake maintenance in the second quarter that will cut its MOP output by around 300,000 t/yr, further cementing the stronger market sentiment. It also said it will push more product — at least 400,000t of MOP — to the domestic market in 2025. Canpotex also confirmed that it is fully committed for the first half of this year, while uncertainty over tariffs on US imports of Canadian imports also drove up sentiment. MOP prices have been particularly low compared with other key nutrients, specifically phosphate and nitrogen products. And expectations that MOP prices are likely to rise further have encouraged buyers to step into the market earlier and for larger amounts than normal as affordability remains healthy. Urea prices have fallen steadily in March, after hitting 16-month highs in mid-February. The combination of a delayed tender issuance from India, with expectations initially appearing in early February, and the restart of Iranian urea production this month — after outages since December — have weighed on sentiment following a price rise since early December. The lack of a tender in India has enabled US importers to build the line-up for the spring season, releasing pressure on buyers for March-loading cargoes. And a lack of spot import interest in urea from Australia, which appeared earlier than usual in the first quarter of last year, has yet to tighten the balance significantly east of Suez. On the other hand, crop prices for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans have fallen sharply in March, with the crop index — which includes global prices adjusted by output volumes — dropping to the lowest since August 2020 partly on uncertainty over trade dynamics following the imposition of trade tariffs. There is a risk that declining grain prices will weigh on demand for crop inputs. By Lili Minton, Tom Hampson, Julia Campbell and Harry Minihan Global fertilizer affordability Index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Ocior touts Indian H2 drive, urges rule tweaks
Q&A: Ocior touts Indian H2 drive, urges rule tweaks
Mumbai, 6 March (Argus) — Indian company Ocior is developing renewable hydrogen and ammonia projects in India and Egypt. Its most advanced project in Odisha, India, will be developed in two phases — 200,000 t/yr in the first and 800,000 t/yr in the second — with plans to take a final investment decision (FID) for the first phase by September. Argus spoke with the firm's founder and chief executive, Ranjit Gupta, about India's regulatory framework for green hydrogen and progress of the company's projects. Edited highlights follow: How is India faring in development of the hydrogen sector? India is actually doing a very good job by creating a market for 200,000t/yr of green hydrogen use in refineries. The central government has allocated this capacity across various refineries, which are coming up with individual tenders for hydrogen plants to be put up at or around them. One tender by [state-owned refiner] IOC is already closed and other tenders are expected to close in March and April. Once a price for green hydrogen is discovered through these tenders, it will really help the industry move forward. If the government is able to demonstrate that there is offtake available, there will be no dearth of investments in this sector. What more can the government do on the regulatory side? There are a lot of things that the government could potentially do. The objective is to get green hydrogen and green ammonia costs as low as possible. And you do that by at least bringing it down on par with current grey hydrogen and ammonia prices. Both grey hydrogen and ammonia are produced from natural gas. India imports most of its natural gas, and all of it is denominated in dollars. But the refineries and [state-owned] SECI [Solar Energy Corporation of India] are giving us rupee pricing. We have requested dollar pricing—that could help us drive the cost of debt down. If you have a dollar offtake, you can go for a dollar debt, which means you don't have to hedge the dollar to rupee. Another thing, when setting up a green hydrogen and green ammonia project, it should be recognised that we are replacing imported goods. Therefore, the industry should receive benefits that help reduce taxes. If I can reduce my taxes and cost of debt, that will really help in reducing my capital expenditure number, ultimately bringing down the cost of hydrogen and ammonia. Earlier, selling renewable energy from one special economic (SEZ) zone to another was not allowed, but the government has fixed that. But selling renewable energy from an export-oriented unit to an SEZ is still not allowed. The ministry of new and renewable energy (MNRE) has been trying for last two years to get it changed at the behest of the industry. Additionally, you cannot sell excess energy outside the SEZ. That needs to change. The regulator could define taxes I have saved and determine a tariff adjustment if I sell excess renewable energy to the domestic tariff area. There are several small things like this which we are requesting the government to do. And MNRE has done a fabulous job in trying to get these things done. But when it becomes inter-ministerial, the process is drawn out a little longer. How are your projects progressing? We have two projects — in Egypt and Odisha, India. We hope to FID the first phase of the Odisha project by September, and the Egypt project by March next year. But further progress will depend on offtake. For our Odisha project, we have acquired land and started front end engineering design (FEED) study. We have contracted Norwegian company Aker solutions to work on the FEED study. We have awarded ammonia licensor contract to [US engineering firm] KBR and green certification study to [German certification provider] TUV Rheinland. We have already completed geotechnical studies. We are in discussions with GRIDCO [Grid Corporation of Odisha] for renewable power. So, a lot of progress has been made. The issue is offtake. If we are able to determine that, then we could potentially start construction of the project by August- September. We have signed a memorandum of understanding with an European trader, Ameropa, and are in discussions with other Japanese and European companies for offtake. Plus, we are going to take part in the SECI's green ammonia tender. Are you facing any challenges in developing the project in Egypt? Every country is different. In Egypt, the big advantage is that solar and wind resource are fantastic, much better than India. No issue with land availability — we have been allocated 600 km² of land for the wind project and around 11,000 acres for solar projects by the Egyptian authorities. That's a big advantage over India, where land is always a challenge to aggregate. On the regulatory framework, both countries are similar. The disadvantage of Egypt is that they don't have a good electricity grid. India has great infrastructure for project development and construction. And you will not have a problem with labor or skilled engineers. Egypt might not have that available. So, there are advantages and disadvantages to each country. How much does compliance with EU standards on renewable fuels of non-biological origins impact production costs? The biggest issue is temporal correlation. If they could do away with it, that would make things easier. In dollar terms, the difference in production costs would be close to about 10pc for the price of ammonia. The EU green lobby needs to realise that the more stringent they make green standards, the further away the pricing will be from grey hydrogen, making it more difficult for consumers to accept green hydrogen. This will also leave the doors open for blue hydrogen, which will come in somewhere in the middle. By starting with less restrictive covenants, not compromising on carbon content, green hydrogen pricing can be more competitive than blue hydrogen for EU. By Akansha Victor Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New US export capacity to dampen pressure on VLGC rates
New US export capacity to dampen pressure on VLGC rates
A slew of LPG capacity expansion projects could lift the number of VLGCs loading on the Gulf coast, writes Yohanna Pinheiro London, 4 March (Argus) — Planned LPG export capacity expansions on the US Gulf coast over the next three years could taper some previously forecast downward pressure on VLGC freight rates, in turn caused by a weighty influx of newbuilds scheduled for 2027 delivery. US midstream operator Targa Resources announced plans late last month to expand its 450,000 b/d (14mn t/yr) Galena Park LPG terminal in Houston to 625,000 b/d by the third quarter of 2027. This came after peers MPLX and Oneok unveiled their project to develop a new 400,000 b/d LPG export facility in Texas City. These projects join rival firms Energy Transfer's and Enterprise Products' plans to expand their 480,000 b/d Nederland and 763,000 b/d Baytown terminals by 250,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d, respectively, by 2026 — although these will also incorporate ethane. These projects could in theory add about 65 VLGCs/month loading on the Gulf coast once completed, although the ethane and liftings by midsize gas carriers will mean it is likely to be lower. VLGCs employed on a Gulf coast to east Asia voyage, which takes 28-45 days, stood at around 139/month last year compared with 119/month in 2023, Kpler data show, after Panama Canal transits improved and 40 newbuild VLGCs were delivered. About 100 more new vessels will have hit the water by late 2028, most due for delivery in 2027, threatening to oversupply the market. Scrapping is unlikely to balance it, despite more than 15pc of the fleet being 25 years old or more, because they will find employment in less conventional markets such as Iran. The strong VLGC orderbook was fuelled by a rush to embrace a nascent ammonia fuel market. But the adoption of ammonia has been slow and market participants do not expect enough demand to absorb the added VLGC availability before 2030. Several of the very large ammonia carriers have not been contracted by projects still under development, meaning they are likely to ship LPG until the demand from ammonia emerges. Increased capacity on the US Gulf coast could help offset this vessel supply pressure, but whether the LPG import demand in longer-haul markets matches this is uncertain. Fee-for-all The world's largest VLGC owner, BW LPG, along with a range of freight market participants have highlighted a more immediate concern from the US government's recently announced proposal to impose fees on Chinese-built vessels and shipowners with newbuild orders at Chinese yards calling at US ports. "[The measure] would have very disruptive implications on the whole shipping market… trading houses, shipping companies, oil and energy majors all have Chinese-built vessels in their fleet," chief executive Kristian Sorensen says. About 15pc of the global VLGC fleet of around 400 vessels were built in China, most of them having been built in South Korea and Japan. And 24 of the 107 VLGCs on order are at Chinese yards, he says. BW LPG's VLGC fleet of 54 includes 11 Chinese-built ships. The company remains optimistic on the outlook for the rest of 2025, despite the political and legislative uncertainty, as warmer weather in the northern hemisphere widens the US-Asia LPG arbitrage and additional export capacity on the Gulf coast opens later in the year. Further cargoes will also emerge from Qatar's North Field expansion , increasing vessel demand, BW LPG says. The potential for delays to re-emerge at the Panama Canal and an intense drydocking schedule for 80 vessels could also support rates, it says. This outlook is shared by New York-listed rival Dorian LPG, which does not expect US-China tensions to disrupt the LPG trade because of China's dependency on US exports. Norwegian owner Avance Gas meanwhile suggests more aggressive US sanctions on Iran could push demand from the shadow fleet to the conventional market, supporting VLGC rates. VLGC owners' results 4Q24 ±% 4Q23 2024 ±% 2023 BW LPG Profit $mn 39.7 -75.5 394.9 -19.9 TCE $/d 37,890 -50.2 48,300 -23.4 Dorian LPG Profit $mn 21.3 -78.7 161.2 -47.0 TCE $/d 36,071 -49.9 46,710 -25.3 Avance Gas Profit $mn 210.1 242.2 443.0 171.0 TCE $/d 28,200 -63.0 46,200 -22.5 US LPG sea export capacity exports VLGC rates VLGC newbuild orderbook Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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