Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Singapore introduces grant for PET return scheme
Singapore introduces grant for PET return scheme
Singapore, 22 January (Argus) — Singapore's National Environment Agency (NEA) is introducing a beverage container return scheme (BCRS) producer transition grant to help beverage companies prepare for the rollout of the country's post-consumer polyethylene terephthalate (PET) deposit return system. All registered beverage producers will automatically receive up to S$2,500 ($1,900) to help offset early compliance costs under the new extended producer responsibility (EPR) framework, the NEA said. The grant covers product registration fees, producer fees and the cost of scheme stickers, with eligible charges automatically deducted from the grant during billing. Set to launch on 1 April, the BCRS will require beverage containers to carry a deposit mark and a Singapore-specific barcode. Consumers will pay a 10-cent deposit for most bottled and canned beverages, which can be redeemed when empty bottles and cans are returned at designated points. More than 1,000 reverse vending machines (RVMs) are expected to be deployed as part of the nationwide rollout. The deposit system is intended to lift Singapore's recovery rates for beverage containers and reduce waste sent for disposal. The NEA highlighted that cleaner, traceable streams of post-consumer PET collected through the scheme are expected to improve the availability of feedstock for recycled polymer production, supporting national waste-reduction goals. The NEA has also extended the transition period for companies from three to six months, giving producers until 30 September 2027 to fully utilise the grant. The scheme will be administered by the appointed operator, also named BCRS, formed by Singapore's largest beverage producers Coca-Cola, F&N Foods and Pokka, for managing fee collection and container returns. Sihan Long Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US homebuilders expect another gloomy year: NAHB
US homebuilders expect another gloomy year: NAHB
Houston, 21 January (Argus) — US homebuilders and the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producers that supply them are increasingly concerned that pent-up demand for new housing will not emerge this year amid continued weak demand, according to a new survey from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) decreased to 37 in January, further indicating bearish fundamentals for the domestic housing market, according to the HMI released late last week. The reading this month is down from 47 in January 2025 and off from 39 in December. The HMI is a weighted average of US homebuilders' views on present single-family home sales, expected sales in the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers on a scale of 100. Readings above 50 indicate generally bullish sentiment. Continued weakness in future sales expectations for the next six months as well as house-price cuts by builders contributed to ongoing bearish sentiment. About 40pc of homebuilders cut prices in January, with the average price decline at 6pc compared with December, NAHB said. A continued lack of consumer appetite slowed construction activity to five-year lows during the final months of 2025, data from the US Census Bureau shows. Bearish signals in the US housing market are expected to prolong weakness in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand, a trend that defined 2025 for domestic producers. US producers are optimistic that potentially lower borrowing costs could bring consumers back to the market, as 30-year mortgage rates have fallen to 6.16pc in the week of 16 January, the lowest since September 2022, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. Still, the US Federal Reserve has penciled in only one likely quarter point cut this year after making six rate cuts from a more than two-decade high in late 2024. Predictions for its rate-setting meeting next week point to no change to its target interest rate, according to the CME FedWatch tool. By Gordon Pollock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Vioneo to shift planned MTP plant to China
Vioneo to shift planned MTP plant to China
London, 19 January (Argus) — Chemical start-up Vioneo has decided to build its planned 300,000 t/yr methanol-to-polymers (MTP) plant in China instead of Europe, saying a location close to green methanol supply will "enable pricing that works … and a faster route to market". The China site will use the same technology partners, product specifications and sustainability commitments as the proposed European project. Production is likely in 2029-30, with capacity unchanged at 200,000 t/yr of polypropylene and 100,000 t/yr of polyethylene, the company said. A spokesperson said Vioneo — a subsidiary of Denmark's Moller Holding — is "pulling out" of Europe for now but may return to build polymer capacity on the continent in future. The firm's priority is to bring "fossil-free plastics to market as quickly as possible", the spokesperson said, adding that moving to China will allow the company to be more competitive on pricing. Vioneo has already signed preliminary supply deals with buyers and said it can serve these global customers from Asia rather than Europe. Vioneo had previously planned to build its first commercial-scale unit in Antwerp, Belgium. Last month it said this plant would start up in 2029, using green methanol sourced from agricultural and forestry residues that do not compete with food production. But it also noted at the time that Europe lacked sufficient feedstock and that supply might need to come from Asia. The China plant will also use agricultural and forestry residues as feedstock, the spokesperson said. The company last month welcomed the European Bioeconomy Strategy, which aims to support the use of bio-based plastics and novel materials by 2027 alongside recycling. Vioneo said the strategy would "create real advantages" for its customer base. By George Barsted Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
London, 19 January (Argus) — The IMF has upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 but warned an escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe is a "major risk." US president Donald Trump on 17 January threatened tariffs on several European countries in a bid to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. This has raised concerns about a potential trade war between Europe and the US. "If we were to enter a phase in which there would be escalation and tit-for-tat policies… that would certainly have even more of an adverse effect on the economy, both through direct channels, but also through confidence, investment, and potentially through a repricing by [financial] markets," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at the launch of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) today. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3pc, citing improvements in the US and China, and kept its projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.2pc. It puts 2025 economic growth at 3.3pc, from a previous 3.2pc. IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The IMF has repeatedly upgraded its growth projections since April 2025 and now sees 2025 and 2026 growth higher than when US-led tariff disruptions started in early 2025. The outlook's economic assumptions are current as of 31 December so do not take into account the US' latest tariff threat against European countries. It assumes an effective tariff rate of 18.5pc for US imports from the rest of the world. Any change to this would be a major risk," Gourinchas said. "This is something that could materially impact growth if we have higher levels of tariffs, if we have higher levels of geopolitical tension." The IMF said the US-led investment boom in AI and strong fiscal stimulus in China and Germany was offsetting economic losses associated with higher tariffs. But Gourinchas warned that debt financing in the AI sector was becoming more prevalent, and this could "amplify shocks if returns failed to materialise." He said any correction in AI stock market valuations would have far reaching negative effects or the global economy. The IMF said fiscal discipline is weakening across the globe, particularly in advanced economies. "The risk here [is] that countries will be unable to face the significant challenges ahead in terms of population aging, climate transition, national security or ability to support the economy, should a large shock occur," Gourinchas said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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