Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Saudi Sadara petchem site shuts down on US-Iran war
Saudi Sadara petchem site shuts down on US-Iran war
London, 31 March (Argus) — Sadara Chemical Company, a joint-venture between US-based chemical company Dow and Saudi Arabia's Aramco, has shut down production temporarily at its Jubail site in Saudi Arabia because of the US-Iran war, according to a regulatory filing. The cause for the shut down was cited as "ongoing disruption to Sadara's supply chains". The company does not currently have an estimate of when production will return, according to the statement. Shipping through the strait of Hormuz has remained disrupted since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February. And earlier this month, Iran threatened the petrochemical complex with missile strikes , but the site so far has not been hit. The site can produce 1.5mn t/yr of ethylene and 400,000 t/yr of propylene and is integrated to produce 750,000 t/yr of LLDPE/HDPE, 350,000 t/yr of LDPE, 330,000 t/yr of propylene oxide and 360,000 t/yr of ethylene oxide. It has a capacity of 200,000 t/yr of TDI production and 400,000 t/yr of MDI production. The site can also produce 150,000 t/yr of ethanolamines which are distributed by Saudi Arabia petrochemical producer Sabic. Sabic declared a force majeure on ethanolamines supply in late March . Dow Chemicals, which holds a 35pc stake in Sadara and markets a significant share of its ethanolamines output, declared force majeure on 10 March in some markets, including Europe. Dow said it was unable to load volumes at Jubail because of logistics disruptions stemming from the war. By George Barsted Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Chinese carbide PVC could temper US exports to Asia
Chinese carbide PVC could temper US exports to Asia
San Antonio, 31 March (Argus) — US suspension-grade polyvinyl chloride (S-PVC) prices have risen sharply since the onset of the Mideast Gulf war, driven by soaring international demand. But US exporters will have to compete with cheaper carbide-based PVC production in China, which may temper total exports into Asia. US S-PVC export prices rose to a $1,000-1,050/t fas Houston range during the week ended 27 March, up by just over 55pc from 27 February, the day before the conflict broke out in the Mideast Gulf, according to Argus data. Chinese carbide-based S-PVC prices rose to a $815-900/t fob China range at the end of March, up by only 36.1pc during the same period. Carbide-based PVC, derived from coal instead of ethylene, is cheaper to produce and is insulated from supply shocks to oil and natural gas. US export demand could erode because of this, as Chinese carbide-based exports become relatively cheaper than US ethylene-based PVC, according to participants on the sidelines of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers' International Petrochemical Conference in San Antonio, Texas, this week. More than 80pc of Chinese integrated PVC production is carbide-based, according to Argus estimates. Chinese carbide-based operating rates are estimated by Argus at around 68pc. In fact, a further 10pc hike in operating rates to meet growing demand could replace all of the more expensive US ethylene-based exports. The US exported 621,050t of PVC to Vietnam in 2025, comprising 11pc of all US exports that year and making Vietnam the US' second-largest global buyer outside of Canada. This demand could be captured by Chinese exports if carbide-based prices in China remain more competitive to buyers than US ethylene-based. Additionally, this could dampen domestic prices for US producers, who — outside of ethylene costs, which have risen by 66pc since the beginning of the war — are comparatively insulated from rising energy costs in Asia and Europe. However, US exporters could pivot to shipping ethylene dichloride (EDC) instead of PVC. Feedstock EDC from the US is already in great demand from producers in India and could be used as an alternative to lower-quality carbide PVC, which has limited applications. By Gordon Pollock and Nicole Johnson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US methanol price climbs to 4-year high
US methanol price climbs to 4-year high
Houston, 30 March (Argus) — A spot methanol barge traded at a four-year high of 135¢/USG fob ITC for April delivery today, up by 10¢/USG from last week. US Gulf coast barge prices have continued to climb since the beginning of March as war in the Mideast Gulf disrupts global commodity markets and upends trade flows. It is understood a producer bought the 10,000-bl barge today at 135¢/USG, the highest price since 8 March 2022. Bids followed the deal at 120¢/USG fob ITC against offers at 140¢/USG. By Steven McGinn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia targets 50pc biodiesel blend in 2026
Indonesia targets 50pc biodiesel blend in 2026
Singapore, 30 March (Argus) — Indonesia will increase its biodiesel-fossil gasoil blend to 50pc (B50) this year, president Prabowo Subianto said during a state visit to Japan today. The development follows months of backtracking on the country's plans for its biodiesel mandate. The president in January gave a directive that Indonesia would maintain a B40 target for 2026 because of high costs of funding the mandate due to wide palm oil-gasoil (Pogo) spreads above $350/t. At the same time, the government raised palm product export levies by 2.5pc from March to fund biodiesel production. Ministry of energy and mineral resources director general Eniya Listiani Dewi said in late 2025 that B50 could be implemented by the second half of 2026 , subject to B50 road test results and other logistical bottlenecks. The government has likely revived interest in increasing to a B50 blending target because of the war in the Middle East, which has significantly narrowed the Pogo spread and disrupted oil supplies to Indonesia. The front-month Pogo spread between Bursa Malaysia crude palm oil (CPO) futures and Ice gasoil futures hit a 41-month low of a $292/t discount at 16:30 Singapore time (08:30 GMT) today. The B50 announcement also drove third-month CPO futures to a 15-month high of 4,778 ringgit/t ($1,186/t) at the same timestamp. Indonesia is also eager to further reduce its gasoil import dependence in the current volatile market. Indonesian plantation fund management agency BPDP funds the price gap between biodiesel and fossil gasoil using revenue from export levies on palm oil and related products. It delivers the funds to biodiesel producers under the public service obligation sector after they supply biodiesel to fuel distribution companies at the cost of regular gasoil. Fuel distributors then supply blended biodiesel and gasoil to consumers. By Malcolm Goh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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