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Mexico denies boosting oil shipments to Cuba
Mexico denies boosting oil shipments to Cuba
Mexico City, 7 January (Argus) — Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday that the country has not increased oil shipments to Cuba, even as Mexico has become a key supplier following recent disruptions in Venezuela. "We are not sending more oil than we have sent historically," Sheinbaum said during her daily morning press conference. "Of course, with the current situation in Venezuela, Mexico has obviously become an important supplier. Before, this was Venezuela." Sheinbaum was responding to reporters' questions about whether Mexico had become Cuba's main source of crude since the US tightened sanctions on Venezuelan exports in mid-December and detained Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Mexico has supplied crude to Cuba for decades under commercial agreements and humanitarian aid programs, Sheinbaum said. Current deliveries remain within those frameworks. "It is part of the contract and also part of the aid that has been provided historically," she said. The president highlighted Mexico's longstanding energy ties with Cuba, including a $350mn investment in the Cienfuegos refinery in 1994 and technical cooperation agreements signed by state-owned Pemex in 2012. Mexico also forgave about 70pc of Cuba's debt with Bancomext in 2013, much of it linked to hydrocarbons trade. Sheinbaum earlier framed the shipments as consistent with Mexico's foreign policy and humanitarian commitments, while acknowledging the geopolitical sensitivity given Cuba's strained relations with the US, Mexico's top trading partner. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: US marine fuel imports to fall further
Viewpoint: US marine fuel imports to fall further
New York, 31 December (Argus) — Marine fuel imports could continue declining next year as countries opt to ship elsewhere because of US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Global imports to the US are projected to decline by around 6.6pc in 2026, according to consultancy firm Oxford Economics. This includes an estimated 10.7pc decrease in shipments from Mexico and a 3.6pc drop in deliveries from Canada, Oxford Economics said. Imports to the US have totaled around 26.71mn metric tonnes (t) in 2025, a 11pc decline from 2024, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa. Mexico and Canada have seen the biggest drop in maritime shipments to the US this year. Mexico posted the highest share of shipments to the US, at around 5.90mn t in 2025, Vortexa data show. But Mexico's shipments to the US dropped by about 29pc from about 8.32mn t in 2024. Canadian shipments to the US dropped by about 18pc to 2.3mn t in 2025, according to Vortexa. Canada has had the fourth highest share of marine fuel shipments to the US in 2025. A higher percentage of Mexican exports has gone to Singapore, from 8.1pc last year to 8.9pc in 2025, and to Morocco, from none to 1.8pc, according to Vortexa data. For Canada, a higher share of shipments has gone to Dutch Caribbean Island St Eustatius, rising from 10.2pc to 12.5pc in 2025, and to the Netherlands, up from 1.9pc last year to 2.5pc in 2025. Currently, the US imposes a 25pc tariff on Mexican imports and a 35pc tariff on shipments from Canada. Goods that qualify under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement and energy commodities are exempted from the tariffs. A ruling by the US Supreme Court overturning Trump's tariff actions could add volatility to marine fuel market activity, especially should the Trump administration pursue other avenues to implement its exclusionary trade policies. The court held an appeal in November of this year and a decision on the case could come at anytime before June 2026. By Luis Gronda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Suez bunker demand may rebound in 2026
Viewpoint: Suez bunker demand may rebound in 2026
Sao Paulo, 31 December (Argus) — Spot bunker demand at the Suez Canal could strengthen in 2026 as the prospect of improved security conditions in the Red Sea prompts major shipowners to weigh a return to the route. The Yemen-based Houthis signalled a pause to their maritime attacks in the Red Sea on 11 November, following a peace agreement signed between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas a month earlier. But they warned attacks would resume if fighting in Gaza restarts. Since then, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) has said the route is ready to receive container ships and has held talks with major carriers including Maersk and CMA CGM. The SCA has also introduced flexible pricing, including a 15pc discount for container ships over 130,000t. Some large container vessels have already transited, such as the 396m CMA CGM Jules Verne with a gross tonnage of 176,000t. A sustained return of large shipowners would lift bunker demand at Suez, reversing the shift to southern Africa ports seen since late 2023 when the Houthi attacks began. Smaller shipowners could follow, but they would need insurers to cut premiums, which remain high because of the attacks. After the SCA announcement, Danish firm Maersk said it is considering a return to the canal and aims to normalise transits over time, but without setting a date. The decision depends on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holding and the wider geopolitical situation. Shipping firms have increasingly switched to the longer Cape of Good Hope route since the attacks started, adding weeks to east-west voyages. In the third quarter of 2025, 3,277 vessels passed through the Suez Canal, down from 6,253 in the same period of 2022, SCA data show. The longer route has lifted bunker fuel consumption and operational expenses for shipowners. Some bunker fuel suppliers have shifted to Egypt's Port Said and paused Suez operations, but one told Argus they are already planning a return and arranging replenishments. Some market participants remain cautious, noting this is not the first time the Houthis have announced a pause in attacks. Suez transit tonnage in early May this year was about 70pc below the 2023 average, according to UN Trade and Development's 2025 Review of Maritime Transport. The rerouting boosted spot demand at Cape Town and Durban on South Africa and Port Louis in Mauritius. Spot demand at Cape ports could fall if ships return to Suez, potentially easing bunker prices in southern Africa, market participants said. Argus assessed delivered very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Cape Town at an average of $612.25/t between 8 January and 8 December 2025, while Durban averaged $598.75/t. By comparison, Port Said averaged $550.75/t and Suez $635/t over the same period, the latter reflecting higher operational costs and limited supplier activity . By Natália Coelho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: European VLSFO demand to fall in 2026
Viewpoint: European VLSFO demand to fall in 2026
Sao Paulo, 31 December (Argus) — Very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) demand at European ports is likely to fall in 2026, due to decarbonisation regulations and sulphur content restrictions. Shipowners say VLSFO is unattractive, even at lower prices. Spot VLSFO traded 13pc lower on the year at the Gibraltar-Algeciras-Ceuta (GAC) hub in 2025 to date. MGO prices fell by 8pc in the same time. This is likely to continue into 2026, with European regulations reducing demand for fuel oil. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions abatement costs will become significantly higher in 2026 with the advancement of EU ETS regulations, the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) III transposition in various countries, and the existing FuelEU Maritime requirements. A probable oversupply of VLSFO would extend a trend observed in 2025. Suppliers, especially in the Mediterranean region, noticed a steady slowdown in VLSFO demand and increased demand for fuels that comply with the requirements of the Mediterranean Emissions Control Area (ECA) that came into effect in May. An ECA requires bunker fuels utilised in that area are limited to 0.1pc sulphur content. VLSFO does not meet this unless an exhaust scrubber is used, but only around 5pc of vessels globally are equipped with these, according to DNV data. The Mediterranean ECA boosted demand for MGO in the region's ports and supported gasoil import flows to GAC from northwest Europe, to the extent there was a shortage of prompt MGO availability at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) in the second and third quarters of 2025. Suppliers said firmer demand in Mediterranean ports in 2026 should keep these ARA-GAC flows elevated. Consequent MGO tightness in northwest Europe, combined with ECAs spanning the majority of European waters, could incentivise demand for ultra-low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) with sulphur content meeting the ECA limit of 0.1pc. ULSFO sales in Rotterdam in the third quarter of 2025 were the highest since the first quarter of 2020. Mediterranean suppliers have increased ULSFO availability in key ports such as Algeciras, Malta, Piraeus and Istanbul. In the latter, demand for ULSFO is already higher than that for VLSFO and HSFO in the spot market and is on par with demand for MGO, according to local suppliers. For the coming year, market participants are likely to continue expanding supply of ULSFO, with at least one new supplier starting to offer the product in Piraeus. Even so, the amount of purchases in the spot market is unlikely to increase significantly, since the main destination of ULSFO purchases tends to be for contract ferries, suppliers said. By Gabriel Tassi Lara Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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