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Australian crop harvest deliveries approach 39mn t
Australian crop harvest deliveries approach 39mn t
Sydney, 20 January (Argus) — Slower grain and oilseed deliveries and final weekly progress updates indicate that Australia's 2025-26 harvest is drawing to a close, as cumulative receivals across the country's major networks approach 39mn t. Grain receivals into the Western Australia (WA)-based CBH Group reached 24.1mn t as of 18 January, with only a small number of deliveries continuing to enter the network, the co-operative said 19 January. Total receivals represent more than 90pc of the state's 26.6mn t winter crop estimated by the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia. South Australia (SA)-based Bunge issued its final harvest update last week. The firm has taken 5.3mn t of grains, oilseed and pulses into its network as of 4 January. Receivals are more than 2.1mn t higher than at the same point a year earlier due to better seasonal conditions. Drought weighed heavily on the state's 2024-25 winter crop production. GrainCorp, based on the east coast, received 9.3mn t as of 5 January across its sites in Queensland, New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria, a 17pc decline from the 10.9mn t it received around the same time last season. Total receivals reached 13.3mn t in the financial year ending 30 September 2025, according to GrainCorp. Growers keeping grain on farm and a slightly smaller winter crop in the eastern states, as estimated by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (Abares), likely contributed to lower volumes entering the network so far this harvest. The total volume received from the approximate start of harvest reached 37.8mn t across the three major bulk handlers, and more than half of Australia's 66mn t winter crop output as estimated by Abares. Australian wheat export prices have resisted harvest pressure despite the large crop, partly on account of slow grower selling and tight capacity early in the October-September marketing year. By Edward Dunlop Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
London, 19 January (Argus) — The IMF has upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 but warned an escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe is a "major risk." US president Donald Trump on 17 January threatened tariffs on several European countries in a bid to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. This has raised concerns about a potential trade war between Europe and the US. "If we were to enter a phase in which there would be escalation and tit-for-tat policies… that would certainly have even more of an adverse effect on the economy, both through direct channels, but also through confidence, investment, and potentially through a repricing by [financial] markets," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at the launch of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) today. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3pc, citing improvements in the US and China, and kept its projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.2pc. It puts 2025 economic growth at 3.3pc, from a previous 3.2pc. IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The IMF has repeatedly upgraded its growth projections since April 2025 and now sees 2025 and 2026 growth higher than when US-led tariff disruptions started in early 2025. The outlook's economic assumptions are current as of 31 December so do not take into account the US' latest tariff threat against European countries. It assumes an effective tariff rate of 18.5pc for US imports from the rest of the world. Any change to this would be a major risk," Gourinchas said. "This is something that could materially impact growth if we have higher levels of tariffs, if we have higher levels of geopolitical tension." The IMF said the US-led investment boom in AI and strong fiscal stimulus in China and Germany was offsetting economic losses associated with higher tariffs. But Gourinchas warned that debt financing in the AI sector was becoming more prevalent, and this could "amplify shocks if returns failed to materialise." He said any correction in AI stock market valuations would have far reaching negative effects or the global economy. The IMF said fiscal discipline is weakening across the globe, particularly in advanced economies. "The risk here [is] that countries will be unable to face the significant challenges ahead in terms of population aging, climate transition, national security or ability to support the economy, should a large shock occur," Gourinchas said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada's wheat exports slow, still at record
Canada's wheat exports slow, still at record
London, 19 January (Argus) — Canadian trading firms exported 1.53mn t of soft wheat over 15 December-11 January, bringing their total exports for the 2025-26 season (August-July) so far to 10.4mn t — the highest for this point in the season since at least 2016, according to Argus tracking. Exporters shipped more than 525,000t of soft wheat in the week ending 28 December, which is typically a week in which no wheat is exported because of the holiday period, as seen in 2019-24. Canada exported an average of 470,000 t/week of wheat over 3 August-28 December, which was higher than in previous years and the second highest for the period since 2018-19, when 403,000 t/week were exported. Exports slowed to 256,000 t/week in 29 December-11 January, which is below average compared with the same weeks in previous years. If exports continue at this slower pace, Canada will still have exported a cumulative 11.7mn t by mid-February, which would be more than the 11.5mn t shipped in the whole of the 2021-22 season. By Erik Metaliaj Canada's cumulative wheat weekly exports mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
API, ethanol groups clinch deal on US biofuel bill
API, ethanol groups clinch deal on US biofuel bill
New York, 17 January (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute (API) and ethanol groups have agreed on reforms to US biofuel policy that they would like to see, teeing up a last-minute lobbying campaign to get the provisions included in federal budget legislation this month. API and ethanol supporters that include the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy have aligned around limiting refineries' future exemptions from biofuel mandates and making some changes to a bipartisan bill that would permit a higher-ethanol gasoline blend, according to four people familiar with the deal and draft text shared with Argus . The groups' final framework — which they will pitch to lawmakers in the hopes of swiftly adding it to government spending bills this month — would authorize sales of up to 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) year-round. Summertime sales of ethanol blends above 10pc are restricted in most of the US because of rules meant to minimize smog. If passed into law, the deal would be a major victory for ethanol producers who have long claimed wider access to the typically-cheaper blend would benefit farmers and drivers alike. Oil majors have grown more comfortable with E15 too, preferring consistent nationwide rules to costly workarounds like a looming shift in the midcontinent to a boutique fuel blend that would allow more ethanol. While the E15 fix would take effect immediately, the energy groups want to keep existing rules around biofuel quotas and exemptions in place through 2027. Under the current system, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires oil companies to blend minimum volumes of biofuels while allowing hardship exemptions for some small refineries that annually process no more than 75,000 b/d of crude. Starting in the 2028 compliance year, relief would be awarded only to companies that process 75,000 b/d or less across all their refineries and that also maintain that eligibility each year. These smaller facilities would win automatic 75pc exemptions from biofuel quotas starting in 2028 without having to apply each year, effectively ending discretion for regulators to choose which refineries deserve exemptions. Under the proposal, EPA starting in 2028 also would not require larger oil companies blend more biofuels to offset exemptions granted to their smaller rivals. This longer phase-in would address concerns from some energy lobbyists that more immediate changes could delay EPA's work to finalize new blend mandates. The agency wants to finalize new blend quotas for 2026 and 2027 in the coming weeks. Fuel fight The draft bill's text could change as lobbyists pitch the agreement to lawmakers and try to minimize backlash from oil refiners, people familiar with the matter said. But there is little time for more negotiations, with advocates of the deal pushing Congress to include it in legislation to fund government agencies after 30 January. Lawmakers have expressed similar urgency. There may be "news soon" on updates to the existing E15 bill draft, bill sponsor and US senator Deb Fischer (R-Nebraska) said in an online interview with Brownfield Ag News this week. The current deal would be a substantial blow to refiners that have won exemptions for small units in the past but run too many larger facilities to qualify under the proposed rules, including independent refiners Delek and Par Pacific. Other merchant refiners worry that the biofuel lobby will use wider ethanol access as a pretext to push for higher blend mandates in future years, which they say risks refinery closures. The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers chief executive told Argus this week that his refinery members were divided over E15 talks. API had surprised its traditional oil refining allies last year by teaming up with ethanol interests on a larger biofuel policy package . Other biofuel producers have long wanted tighter restrictions on hardship waivers than the latest deal, another hiccup for negotiations. Particularly controversial among farm advocates is a holdover provision from the current E15 bill to grant some small refiners active credits they can use toward future mandates. API, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy as well as chief Senate bill sponsors Fischer and Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virginia) did not immediately reply to requests for comment. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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