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IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs
IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs
Washington, 17 April (Argus) — Economic growth projections set for release next week will include "notable markdowns" caused by higher US tariffs that have been disrupting trade and stressing financial markets, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said today. The IMF earlier this month warned that the tariffs that President Donald Trump was placing on trading partners could pose a "significant risk" to the global economy. Those higher trade barriers are on track to reduce growth, raise prices for consumers and create incremental costs related to uncertainty, the IMF plans to say in its World Economic Outlook on 22 April. "Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession," Georgieva said Thursday in a speech previewing the outlook. "We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries." Trump has already placed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most trading partners, with higher tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico, a 145pc tariff on China, and an exception for most energy imports. Those tariffs — combined with Trump's on-again, off-again threats to impose far higher tariffs — have been fueling uncertainty for businesses and trading partners. The recent tariff "increases, pauses, escalations and exemption" will likely have significant consequences for the global economy, Georgieva said, resulting in a postponement of investment decisions, ships at sea not knowing where to sail, precautionary savings and more volatile financial markets. Higher tariffs will cause an upfront hit to economic growth, she said, and could cause a shift in trade under which some sectors could be "flooded by cheap imports" while other sectors face shortages. The IMF has yet to release its latest growth projections. But in January, IMF expected global growth would hold steady at 3.3pc this year with lower inflation. The IMF at the time had forecast the US economy would grow by 2.7pc, with 1pc growth in Europe and 4.5pc growth in China. The upcoming markdown in growth projections from the IMF aligns with analyses from many banks and economists. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on 16 April said the recent increase in tariffs were likely to contribute to "higher inflation and slower growth". Those comments appear to have infuriated Trump, who has wanted Powell to cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating growth in the US. "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!" Trump wrote today on social media. Powell's term as chair does not end until May 2026. Under a longstanding US Supreme Court case called Humphrey's Executor , Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally fire commissioners at independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve. Trump has already done so at other agencies such as the US Federal Trade Commission, creating a potential avenue to overturn the decision. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
BP defends pivot in face of investor discontent
BP defends pivot in face of investor discontent
London, 17 April (Argus) — BP's chairman Helge Lund took the brunt of a mini-revolt against the strategy pivot that the company announced in late February , as he saw support for his re-election slide at the firm's annual general meeting (AGM) in London today. Lund — who already plans to step down from his role as BP's chair — saw the proportion of votes cast in favour of his re-election drop to 75.7pc, well down on the 95.89pc support he secured at last year's AGM. Prior to this year's meeting, climate activist shareholder group Follow This had said that a vote against Lund was still required to signal concern about BP's governance in the absence of a "say-on-climate" vote following the company's recent strategy revamp which included dropping a 2030 limit on its oil and gas production and investing less on low-carbon assets. Institutional investor Legal and General said last week that it would be voting against the re-election of Lund and that it is "deeply concerned" about the company's strategy change. Commenting on today's vote, Follow This said BP's shareholders had "delivered an unprecedented high level of dissent" that signals deep investor concern about climate and governance. The vote "sends a clear signal" that Lund's successor "needs to be climate and transition competent" and show "resistance to short-term activists", the group added. US activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which has a track record of forcing change at resources companies, has reportedly built a stake of around 5pc in BP . Lund told shareholders at the meeting that BP had carried out "extensive engagement" concerning its strategy change, including sounding out 75pc of its institutional shareholder base, and that a majority did not want a "say-on-climate" vote. He also insisted that the recent strategy shift had been very carefully considered by BP's board and leadership team. These considerations involved a review of a broad range of scenarios including the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's and BP's own ambition to be a net-zero company by 2050. Earlier in the meeting, BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss conceded that the company had been "optimistic for a fast [energy] transition but that optimism was misplaced", noting that despite many areas of strength within BP it went "too far too fast" so that "a fundamental reset was needed". Asked by an investor about how BP plans to mitigate the effects of the tariffs on imports to the US imposed by President Donald Trump this month , Auchincloss said the company was "tracking the situation carefully". The steel and aluminium tariffs that have been introduced by Washington should not affect BP's onshore business in the US but there are some impacts on the speciality steels the firm brings into the US for its offshore facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico, he said. Auchincloss received 97.3pc of shareholder votes in favour of his re-election, while finance chief Kate Thomson received 98.7pc support for her re-election. All other directors, apart from Lund, received votes greater than 92.9pc in favour of their re-election. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts
Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts
Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Belgian H2 pipeline faces year delay in fruit dispute
Belgian H2 pipeline faces year delay in fruit dispute
London, 17 April (Argus) — The construction of Belgium's first hydrogen pipeline between the ports of Ghent and Antwerp could be delayed by a year, after its environmental permit was suspended, gas transport system operator Fluxys has said. The 35km pipeline linking the towns of Zelzate and Kallo — part of a "first phase" of Belgium's "open access" hydrogen pipeline network — was to be completed in 2026 following the start of construction last month . But Belgium's council for permit disputes suspended the environmental permit following appeals from fruit growers related to discharge of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) — sometimes referred to as "forever chemicals" — into the water, Fluxys said. "Work has been halted pending a decision on the merits of the case, which could take up to a year," said Fluxys spokesperson Tim De Vil. "This clearly puts our timetable at risk." A final decision is expected next year at the earliest. De Vil said Fluxys is talking to the Flemish government and farmers' organisations to ensure the permit can still be approved. Fluxys' permit included permission to dispose of PFAS-contaminated water into surface water under "certain conditions." But the regulatory body ruled the impact on areas already exceeding the PFAS limits had been evaluated inaccurately. By Alexandra Luca Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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