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Ford expects $1.5bn tariff hit in 2025
Ford expects $1.5bn tariff hit in 2025
Pittsburgh, 5 May (Argus) — Ford expects tariffs to cost the US automaker about $1.5bn in profit this year, causing the firm to withdraw its full-year financial guidance today. Tariffs and the uncertain rollout of potential changes to those tariff caused the Dearborn, Michigan-based company to suspend its 2025 guidance, which was initially projected at $7bn-8.5bn in earnings before interest and taxes. US president Donald Trump has place 25pc import taxes on vehicles, steel and aluminum, placing immense pressure on US automakers, many of whom have operations in Mexico and Canada. Ford is the third major US automaker to rescind its financial guidance in the past week following similar decisions by Stellantis and General Motors . By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Low-carbon H2 hits the skids with offtake lagging
Low-carbon H2 hits the skids with offtake lagging
Houston, 5 May (Argus) — Multiple North American proposals to make hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture have taken a pause as tariffs add to cost uncertainties and potential buyers balk at making long-term commitments at current prices. Dow has iced its Path2Zero ethylene plant in Alberta that is to use low-carbon hydrogen supplied by Linde. Air Products has delayed the start-up of a hydrogen and ammonia plant in Louisiana. And US nitrogen fertilizer producer LSB Industries said it is [pausing development] of an ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel in Texas. Lower-carbon hydrogen produced from autothermal reforming with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is still expected to lead the nascent sector's development, with renewable-powered production seen as too costly for general takeoff. Most large-scale low-carbon hydrogen projects in the US have focused on exports in the form of ammonia or methanol to Asia and Europe, where governments have promised more support to implement decarbonization mandates. Long-term offtake agreements have so far lagged as regulatory uncertainty, cost concerns and now the added threat of US import tariffs muddle demand perspectives. "Demand has certainly ramped up slower than expected," said LSB chief executive Mark Behrman in an interview with Argus . "In the conversations that we've had with many offtakers in Asia and Europe, and even here domestically, there's been a lack of willingness to commit at the prices that we were able to talk about based on our capital costs," said Behrman, who also cited uncertainty around tariffs as a complicating factor. For long-term supply contracts, buyers were seeking prices below $600/metric tonne fob, said Behrman. LSB partnered with industrial gas firm Air Liquide, Japanese oil company Inpex and Vopak to build the 1.1mn t/yr ammonia facility in Texas. Air Liquide would supply the project with low-carbon hydrogen. The project's costs were largely calculated using 45Q tax credits that are awarded to companies using CCS to reduce emissions. But the release of 45V guidelines in January seemed to offer the possibility of accessing the more lucrative hydrogen production incentive because of a new section pertaining to cryogenic separation, a process that captures carbon dioxide from industrial gas streams, said LSB vice-president of clean energy, Jakob Krummenacher, while speaking at Argus' recent Green Ammonia North America conference in Houston. Cryogenic separation generates more steam than conventional solvent absorption and, if that steam is exported to another process, it may lower the carbon intensity of the resulting hydrogen to such an extent that the project could potentially qualify for 45V, Krummenacher said. As a result, many of the assumptions baked into the engineering studies related to the Houston ammonia venture have to go back to the drawing board. Air Liquide did not respond to requests for comment. If Air Liquide can avail itself of 45V, capital costs may decline and result in more competitive offers to the market. But Berhman cautioned against concluding the project will resume if it is found to qualify for 45V. "We still need a customer to move forward," Behrman said. Dow, which planned to build a hydrogen-fueled ethylene cracker at a petrochemical complex northeast of Edmonton, Alberta, paused its multibillion-dollar project citing uncertainty around US tariffs and the potential for retaliatory tariffs by US trading partners. Linde, which announced last year it would invest $2bn to build a low-carbon hydrogen facility to supply Dow's Path2Zero project, has not responded to questions about what Dow's pause means for its plans in Alberta. Linde has said it was working with Dow to them meet their goals while maintaining Linde's interest in the project. Air Products, meanwhile, further pushed back its $7bn Louisiana low-carbon hydrogen plant to late 2028 or early 2029 as it seeks to control costs by delegating CCS operations and ammonia production to partners. There have been some exceptions to the delays. Early last month, fertilizer producer CF Industries said it was moving ahead on a $4bn ammonia venture with Japan's Jera and investment firm Mitsui at its Blue Point complex in Louisiana. LSB similarly said it is forging ahead with plans to produce low-carbon ammonia at its existing plant in El Dorado, Arkansas, where it will decarbonize production by adding a CCS facility that will be operated by Lapis Carbon Solutions. "We're still big believers in global decarbonization," Behrman said. "I believe that new demand for power generation, power supply, and of course, the marine industry will evolve. I just think it's going to take longer than what everyone initially thought." By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico's manufacturing contraction deepens in April
Mexico's manufacturing contraction deepens in April
Mexico City, 5 May (Argus) — Activity in Mexico's manufacturing sector shrank for a 13th straight month in April, with declines accelerating in production and new orders, according to a survey of purchasing managers. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 45.5 in April from 46.9 in March, finance executives' association IMEF said, moving further below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. US tariffs imposed since March are adding pressure to Mexico's manufacturing sector, which makes up about a fifth of the national economy. The auto industry, responsible for roughly 18pc of manufacturing GDP, may be the hardest hit by the new measures, including a 25pc tariff on auto parts that took effect 3 May. Mexico remains the top exporter of vehicles to the US, supplying 23pc of all US auto imports in 2024. But IMEF said tariffs compound broader, mostly domestic headwinds, including reduced public spending and investor uncertainty stemming from sweeping legal and regulatory reforms. New investment has stalled since late 2024. The PMI index for new orders fell by 2.5 points to 41.8, the lowest since June 2020. Production dropped by 2.5 points to 43.6, while employment fell by 0.6 point to 46.4. New orders and production have now been in contraction for 14 straight months, and employment for 15. Inventories saw the steepest drop in April, falling 4 points to 46.3 — sliding from expansion to contraction — as manufacturers accelerated shipments after tariff implementation dates were confirmed. IMEF's non-manufacturing PMI — which covers services and commerce — remained in contraction for a fifth consecutive month but edged up by 0.5 points to 49.0 in April. Within that index, new orders rose by 0.6 points to 48.1, employment increased 1.3 points to 48.6 and production held steady at 47.5. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Alcmene withdraws ExxonMobil Miro shares offer
Alcmene withdraws ExxonMobil Miro shares offer
Hamburg, 5 May (Argus) — Austrian company Alcmene has withdrawn from its plans to buy ExxonMobil's share in German refining joint venture Miro. Alcmene told ExxonMobil of the withdrawal on 29 April, putting an end to a drawn-out sales process. ExxonMobil agreed in October 2023 to sell its 25pc stake in Miro, which operates the 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery in Germany. The sale was initially put on hold by a court order following a petition by fellow shareholder Shell in April 2024. The court in Karlsruhe dismissed ExxonMobil's appeal in the final instance in July, prohibiting the company from selling its stakes without prior agreement by Shell. Shell holds 32.25pc in the venture, Russian state-controlled Rosneft has 24pc and US firm Phillips 66 has 18.75pc. Rosneft's German business has been under state trusteeship since September 2022. Rosneft plans to sell all of its German assets. By Natalie Müller and Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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