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Viewpoint: Copper volatility, uncertainty ahead in 2025
Viewpoint: Copper volatility, uncertainty ahead in 2025
Houston, 20 December (Argus) — US copper prices are expected to remain volatile in 2025 because of uncertain market conditions, including Chinese demand, electric vehicle (EV) rollouts and falling borrowing costs. Following a two-year downturn prompted by China's economic slowdown in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the next active price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit an all-time record high of $5.106/lb on 21 May 2024. Expectations of increased demand in China, the prospect of looming US interest rate cuts, and projected ramped-up demand for copper in EVs and the green energy sector fueled copper price gains into the mid-year. These expectations proved partly exaggerated, leading copper to fall back to an average of $4.33/lb over the second half of 2024. US copper market participants expect those same factors, albeit to varying degrees, to retain a prominent role in determining prices for 2025. Macroeconomic uncertainties Suppliers and consumers widely expect volatility to persist in the global copper trade as broader macroeconomic factors — chiefly Chinese demand and stimulus, US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions — and delayed US EV ramp-up plans pull the market in diverging directions. President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to implement import tariffs have further complicated the picture for US participants, with likely retaliatory tariffs clouding the picture even more. Trade disagreements and tariffs would not only raise costs but also curb demand as the flow of various goods is dented, market sources said. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve policymakers on 18 December signaled they are likely to cut the target rate by only 50 basis points next year, paring back their expectations from a prior 100 basis points as inflation remains sticky. The DXY dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, surged after the Fed announcement to its highest in two years. A strong dollar puts downward pressure on copper prices because it tends to weaken demand from holders of other currencies. Tariffs are also expected to spur inflation and may prompt the Fed to further slow the pace of rate cuts, or even hike rates, effectively lending support to the dollar, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies to buy into copper. The US Dollar index, DXY, surpassed 108.2 on 19 December, the highest since November 2022. Goldman Sachs has forecast that the greenback will remain strong in the near-term. Automakers slow EV transition Although the green energy transition — generally covering solar, wind, and EV markets for copper markets — is expected to contribute to US consumption of copper, automakers have signaled their interest in delaying EV deployments. Wind and solar markets are widely expected to remain growth sectors with US projects and installations scheduled to rise next year . Still, the picture for EVs, which could ultimately contribute to copper demand heavily, is murkier. EVs utilize copper in motor coils for engines, and the cabling for charging stations among other components, and each EV requires 183 lbs of copper, nearly four times more than equivalent internal combustion engine vehicles. Several automakers, including GM, Ford and Toyota, have either delayed EV plans or shifted more towards hybrids instead this year. Price outlooks diverge Market participants broadly expect the copper market to slide into a deficit by 2026, chiefly because of growing demand from the renewable sector but until then are split on the direction of prices. The CME next active month price through November averaged $4.24/lb in 2024, up from a $3.86/lb average for the same time period in 2023. Investment bank Goldman Sachs said copper prices will average $4.61/lb for 2025, forecasting upside risk from potential further stimulus while simultaneously seeing downside risk from likely US-China trade tensions. Other financial organizations have forecast copper to range from $3.97-4.99/lb in 2025. Citigroup forecast copper at $3.97/lb, Bank of America dropped its outlook to $4.28/lb while UBS was at $4.76-$4.99/lb. Most copper traders and analysts agree that 2025 will likely be a year of transition for the red metal market, buffeted by ongoing uncertainty. By Mike Hlafka Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico reclaims climate role, faces challenges
Mexico reclaims climate role, faces challenges
New York, 20 December (Argus) — Mexico's participation at the UN's Cop 29 climate summit marked a departure from its climate disengagement during the previous administration, but the country still faces challenges in delivering its ambitious climate pledges. Under President Claudia Sheinbaum, the country signaled its intent to reassert itself as a player in global climate leadership, observers who participated in the event in Baku, Azerbaijan, said. But questions remain about whether this renewed commitment can translate into actionable change given domestic challenges. For the first time in six years, Mexico's delegation included high-ranking official such as undersecretaries from the foreign affairs and environment ministries. This marked a stark contrast to the minimal representation during president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's term, said Gustavo Alanis, president of the Mexican center for environmental rights (Cemda). "From 2013 to 2018, Mexico was a leader in climate discussions. That relevance was lost under Lopez Obrador, but Cop 29 sent a powerful signal," he said. "Mexico is back in the conversation." Sheinbaum's government pledged to advance clean energy initiatives, expand welfare programs that provide households with solar panels and water heaters and promote electromobility and energy efficiency. These commitments were welcomed by observers as a sign of change, particularly after the previous administration's hostility toward renewable projects. Despite the positive rhetoric, Mexico's ability to deliver on its promises remains unclear. Alanis pointed out that key environmental agencies face severe budget cuts: the ministry of environment and natural resources (Semarnat) is set to lose 40pc of its funding, while environmental watchdog Profepa will see a 14pc reduction. "Mexico must be consistent with the commitments made to the world in Baku to combat climate change," he said. The government pledged to generate 45pc of electricity from clean sources by 2030. But this target relies on controversial classification, such as including gas-fired generation as clean energy, which is not widely recognized internationally due to its CO2 and methane emissions. In 2023, only 24.3pc of electricity came from clean sources, including gas-fired generation, according to the energy ministry, while the International Renewable Energy (IEA) pegged clean electricity's share at 18pc. Policy clarity is another hurdle. Recent constitutional changes complicate private-sector investments in large renewable energy projects, raising concerns among financial institutions and developers. "The challenge of President Sheinbaum is to pass clear rules so financial institutions can invest in private sector projects," Alanis said. Looking at Cop 30 Mexico's participation at Cop 29 offered a glimpse of its potential to re-emerge as a global climate leader, observers said, adding that lofty promises alone are insufficient. The head of the energy committee for the International Commerce Commission in Mexico criticized the inclusion of the Sembrando Vida reforestation program in the country's climate strategy, arguing that it isunlikely to qualify under Article 6 rules for global carbon markets. The Mexican program focuses on providing subsidies to farmers to plant vegetables, fruits and larger tress, but it has received criticism because some farmers deforest areas to be able to receive the subsidies. "Mexico needs a more robust and credible plan to achieve its ambitious goals," he said. As Brazil prepares to host Cop 30 in Belem next year, Mexico faces mounting pressure to turn Sheinbaum's pledges into reality. "The new administration has ignited hope for a brighter energy transition after six difficult years, but without adequate funding and clear policy frameworks, these promises may fall flat," Alanis warned. Mexico's re-entry into global climate discussions is an encouraging step but its success hinges on bridging the gap between ambition and execution. By Edgar Sigler Mexico’s GHG emissions mn t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil advances energy transition legislation
Brazil advances energy transition legislation
New York, 20 December (Argus) — Brazil approved a series of new laws in 2024 that aim to accelerate the energy transition and attract investment as the country prepares to host the UN's Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Para state, next year. These measures aim to cut emissions in the transport and industrial sectors and curb deforestation, historically the country's largest emissions zone. The transport sector, responsible for nearly 10pc of Brazil's total emissions last year, has become a key target of new government policies. The government's Green Mobility and Innovation program (Mover) offers tax breaks for automakers that invest in decarbonization. Over 100 companies have agreed to invest roughly R130bn ($20.7bn) to produce low-emissions vehicles and auto parts domestically, boosting domestic production of EVs. Additionally, the fuels of the futures law promotes consumption of both first and second-generation biofuels. The law clears the way to increase the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to as much as 35pc, up from the current maximum of 27.5pc, while paves the way for higher mandatory biodiesel blends, which are slated to reach 20pc in 2030 from 14pc currently and can potentially rise by 25pc in the future. The law supports domestic production and consumption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and hydro-treated vegetable oil (HVO). The government is estimating that the approval of the legislation will result in roughly R17.5bn in investments in new biorefineries over the next decade. The government is forecasting that the use of biofuels and electricity in the transport sector will increase by 27pc from current levels by the end of 2026 and by 50pc by the end of 2033. Brazil also approved long-awaited low-carbon hydrogen legislation, establishing a regulatory framework and a tax-credit scheme for investment in low-carbon hydrogen. With the regulatory framework in place, several green hydrogen projects are expected to move forward in 2025 and 2026, including three in the Port of Pecem in Ceara state and one green fertilizer project in Minas Gerais. The government sees green hydrogen as a way to reduce emissions in its steel, cement and aluminum industries. Legislation for a regulated carbon market was another milestone, providing another source of revenue for the decarbonization of the economy. The legislation creates the Brazilian emissions trading system (SBCE) and stipulates that companies with over 25,000 t/yr of emissions will be subject to the cap-and-trade system, which is around 5,000 companies covering about 15pc of Brazil's emissions, according to finance ministry estimates. The carbon market is seen as an important tool to help Brazil finance the protection of its tropical forests and to reduce deforestation, which was responsible for nearly half of the country's emissions last year. Final steps Two other bills are awaiting presidential sanction, including one that will clear the way for investments in offshore wind, allowing companies to conduct assessments of areas for future developments. The law will allow the government to hold its first auctions for offshore wind concessions in 2026. The legislature also approved the energy transition acceleration program (Paten) this week to facilitate access to low-cost financing for the country's decarbonization process. The bill creates incentives for companies to substitute fossil fuels with renewable energy. The law will create a new fund, which will be managed by Brazil's Bndes development bank and can finance projects in a wide range of sectors related to the energy transition and decarbonization. With the new legal framework in place, Brazil is hoping to use its position as the host of the Cop 30 climate summit to showcase its potential as a leader in the global fight against climate change. Brazil GHG emissions mn t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil Bndes invests more in Sao Paulo EV fleet
Brazil Bndes invests more in Sao Paulo EV fleet
Sao Paulo, 20 December (Argus) — Brazil's Bndes development bank approved R94.8mn ($15.6mn) in financing for transport company MobiBrasil to buy 87 electric buses in Sao Paulo city. The environment ministry's climate fund — created to finance climate change mitigation projects and Bndes — will be responsible for R45mn. A federal fund to provide financial security to the unemployed, dubbed FGTS, will be responsible for the remaining R49.8mn. This is Bndes' first operation using FGTS resources. Earlier this month, Bndes said it will invest R2.5bn to buy 1,300 EV-buses in Sao Paulo city . On 9 December, the city's council postponed the bus fleet transition from diesel-powered to EVs to 2054 from the previous 2038 deadline. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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