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LPG / NGL
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Cold, refinery issues support ARA railcar prices
Cold, refinery issues support ARA railcar prices
The railcar premium has hit its highest this year as the market turned bullish in February, writes Waldemar Jaszczyk London, 18 February (Argus) — Northwest European propane railcar premiums to large cargoes hit a seven-week high by mid-February, owing to declining regional temperatures and unplanned shutdowns at German refineries. The premium of the 45t fca Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) railcar assessment to 20,500t cif ARA large cargo prices hit $225/t on 13 February, the highest this year and up by 20pc since mid-January. The outright price stood at $775/t, down by $5/t since the start of this month, but large cargo values fell by $24.50/t to $550/t. Railcar prices slumped in early 2025 owing to high stocks and weaker than expected demand from central and eastern Europe. But sentiment has turned bullish as inland heating demand has firmed on colder weather and diminishing stocks. Meteorological agencies forecast temperatures in the Netherlands and Germany to be about 2-4°C below seasonal norms on 13-19 February. Inland supply has also tightened since mid-January because of unplanned shutdowns at two major refineries in southern Germany. The 90,000 b/d Neustadt refinery was taken off line following an explosion and then a fire. Soon after, the 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery, the country's largest, shut down one of its three production lines owing to a technical fault, and is expected to remain off line until early March. Some LPG suppliers from the affected refineries have restricted loading this month, with one plant heard to have cut these by 30pc and another by a third, market participants say. This has in turn spurred buying interest from ARA's 65,000t Vopak Terminal in Flushing and 75,000t Antwerp Gas Terminal. Plant repairs are unlikely to bring a supply reprieve given the spring maintenance season is approaching. The 125,000 b/d Vohburg refinery is expected to be taken off line along with several units at Neustadt in early March. Closer to the ARA hub, ExxonMobil's 310,000 b/d Antwerp refinery might shut down for maintenance in the second half of February having already experienced issues earlier this month, market participants say. And the first permanent closure of 2025 will take place in March when Shell closes the 147,000 b/d Wesseling facility in Germany. Refinery availability of LPG has also started to be pressured by high natural gas prices. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month gas assessment reached a two-year high of $838/t in early February on colder and less windy forecasts. A bullish natural gas market has encouraged upstream North Sea producers to leave as much LPG in the natural gas stream as possible, with large cargo propane averaging a $148/t discount to gas since the start of 2025. Refinery supply was unaffected given railcar prices remained at sizeable premiums earlier this year. But the TTF flipped to a $12/t premium to propane railcars in the first half of February compared with a discount of $75.25/t in January and $144/t in December. Getting by on their own supply Refineries are now burning their LPG in place of gas, market participants say. Almost 75pc of Europe's LPG supply comes from refineries under normal conditions. Refinery consumption of LPG surged to 1.1mn t/yr in Europe in 2022 when natural gas prices last surged, which is 7pc of regional output and compares with a long-term average of just over 250,000 t/yr, Argus Consulting data show. Resales of Poland-bound cargoes have put some downward pressure on ARA railcar prices. Poland continues to struggle with oversupply following overzealous stockbuilding prior to the EU's enforcement of an embargo on imports of Russian LPG and owing to weak demand for re-exports to Ukraine. A blockade of Kazakh cargoes on Poland's eastern border, with 7,500t reportedly stuck at the Malaszewicze crossing, arrived with previously held product. Unable to find buyers, Polish firms have started reselling cargoes bought from northwest Europe. A day does not go by without an offer from eastern Europe, a German LPG distributor says. TTF v railcar LPG $/t TTF v large Cargo LPG $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New US LPG terminal project sends strong supply signal
New US LPG terminal project sends strong supply signal
Demand for export capacity growth still exists despite the development of yet another terminal, writes Amy Strahan Houston, 18 February (Argus) — US midstream companies MPLX and Oneok this month announced that they are to develop a new 400,000 b/d (12.6mn t/yr) LPG export terminal in Texas City on the US Gulf coast. The facility is due to be operational by 2028 and signifies the belief that yet more capacity will be needed to distribute growing volumes of US LPG around the world even after other midstream companies bring on line expansions at existing terminals in the interim. The planned terminal is likely to be fed by MPLX's Bangl pipeline, which carries unprocessed natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the Permian basin to the Galveston Bay refinery in Sweeny, Texas, and is due to be expanded to 300,000 b/d from 250,000 b/d by late 2026. MPLX, a subsidiary of upstream firm Marathon Oil, is also due to build two new 150,000 b/d NGL fractionators adjacent to Marathon's Galveston Bay refinery for completion in 2028 and 2029, to provide processed LPG and ethane. An extension of the Bangl line would provide access to the new fractionators, Marathon says. As part of the project, Oneok and MPLX are also building a 24-inch (61cm) diameter pipeline that will send LPG from the latter firm's Mont Belvieu storage facility to the export terminal. Oneok will own 80pc of the line and MPLX 20pc. The project is being developed near the mouth of Galveston Bay on to the Gulf of Mexico, about 50km downstream of the Houston Ship Channel, where midstream firms Enterprise Products and Targa Resources own the 763,000 b/d and 450,000 b/d Baytown and Galena Park terminals in Houston, respectively. And it is about 60km northeast of Phillips 66's 260,000 b/d Freeport facility. The terminal project, named Texas City Logistics, comes at the same time as Enterprise works to add 300,000 b/d of capacity at its Houston facility by late 2026, while peer Energy Transfer is adding 250,000 b/d of LPG capacity at its 480,000 b/d Nederland terminal, which is about 125km northeast of Houston, by the end of this year. Tight capacity at US Gulf coast LPG export terminals as a result of weather-related delays and maintenance drove cargo premiums to forward Mont Belvieu prices to record highs of more than 30¢/USG ($156.50/t) in September, prompting talks of investment in further capacity expansions. But the project has drawn a muted response from market participants who say it may come too late to help. It will bring the US' total LPG export capacity to more than 3mn b/d by 2028, while the additional 300,000 b/d of fractionation capacity adds to the 755,000 b/d being developed by the other midstream firms in Mont Belvieu by 2026. The project complements Oneok's "disciplined capital allocation strategy" given the firm's "high expectations" for LPG supply growth and demand for export capacity, chief executive Pierce Norton says. Oneok, which does not own any LPG export capacity, has talked about its ambition to access the international market since 2019. The firm will spend $1bn on the project, while MPLX will invest $2.5bn. The US continues to ramp up NGL production alongside natural gas. Domestic propane output rose by 5.7pc on the year to a record monthly high of 2.24mn b/d in November, while normal butane production climbed by 9.4pc to a new high of 707,000 b/d, according to the EIA. The government agency expects propane output to stand at 2.26mn b/d in 2026 and butane output at 1.19mn b/d. A decade late? But the new terminal might not reap the benefits of higher fob cargo prices as it will come after the Houston and Nederland facility expansions, market participants say. Enterprise called the project "challenging", adding that LPG export values will be eroded by new capacity in the next few years. The project is "a decade late", one trader says. But the terminal will be underpinned by Marathon's existing international customer base, other participants say. US LPG sea export capacity exports Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Naphtha petchems demand under pressure
Naphtha petchems demand under pressure
London, 17 February (Argus) — Petrochemical cracking demand for naphtha is under pressure in northwest Europe from two directions at once, as prices for alternative feedstock propane drop sharply and overall cracking rates suffer from weak downstream demand. Cracking margins remain under pressure, with utilisation rates around 70pc, below the historic average of 85-90pc. Large cargo cif ARA propane has weakened against Ice Brent crude futures, falling by 5pc between October and 13 January, and dropping to 60pc of Ice Brent's value, its lowest since August. The cif northwest Europe naphtha-propane spread widened to $106.75/t on 13 February from $60.25/t on 13 January, marginally exceeding the 2024 average of $105.75/t. The European naphtha-propane spread widened in early 2025 because propane's oversupply continued to pressure prices while gasoline blending provided seasonal support to naphtha. US LPG exports to northwest Europe reached 786,000t in January, the highest since June 2022, Kpler data show. China's propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant utilisation rates fell to 66pc by the end of 2024 from 75pc in October, reducing demand for US LPG and redirecting supply towards Europe. Large propane shipments into Europe have coincided with weak downstream demand for propylene and ethylene. Mounting pressure on the European petrochemical sector has led to rationalisations and shutdowns. Dow recently idled one of its three crackers at its Terneuzen facility in the Netherlands. The cracker has a nameplate ethylene capacity of 600,000 t/yr, and all three crackers at Terneuzen have up to 40pc propane feedstock flexibility. Gasoline blending demand has supported naphtha. The Eurobob non-oxy naphtha differential reached $79.25/t on 3 February, up by $33.25/t compared with a month prior, signalling stronger blending economics, as producers prepare early for the summer driving season. The switch to summer-grade gasoline specifications is expected to drive additional demand for light naphtha and derivatives alkylate and isomerate. Stricter RVP regulations will reduce the use of cheaper butane in the blending pool. This shift is likely to support naphtha prices, directly and through increased demand for high-octane blending components. By Jide Tijani Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Sanctions complicate Syria’s access to crude, products
Sanctions complicate Syria’s access to crude, products
Dubai, 13 February (Argus) — Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders because shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels there in case they are detained, traders say. Syria's transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mn bl of crude, 80,000t of 90 Ron gasoline and 100,000t each of fuel oil and gasoil last month — the first since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December last year. The tenders closed earlier this month after minimal participation from trading firms and were mostly awarded to local companies which will effectively act as intermediaries, market participants said. Market participants have hinted to Argus that small and medium-sized Turkish firms were likely on the list of bidders . But the delivery of the cargoes is under threat, with shipping companies avoiding the route over concerns about tankers being "sanctioned or stranded". Last month the US waived sanctions prohibiting energy trade with Syria, but the country is still under EU and UK sanctions, which could have narrowed the pool for bidding, although EU foreign ministers have agreed on a roadmap to ease restrictions. The bidding pool was also limited by a clause in the tender document that noted "the seller should not have any direct or indirect trade relations with any country that is in war with Syria", a market source said, adding that this could have discouraged some companies from taking part. Before Assad's removal, Syria relied heavily on Iran for crude and product supplies. But Tehran — the Assad regime's closest ally — ceased shipments after the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took control last month, leaving the new transitional government under pressure to find alternative suppliers. Neighbouring Arab countries are stepping in to help the new government deal with acute fuel shortages. State-owned Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company has begun exporting around 500 t/d of LPG to Syria. The ministry also issued two LPG import tenders seeking a total of 86,000t, but the winner has not been confirmed By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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