Potash
Overview
The potash market has been disrupted from its traditional trade flows and typically slow-moving price cycles, affected by new entrants, new mines, military conflicts and political tensions in countries that either produce or consume some of the largest quantities of potash in the world. The need for accurate insight and data is more acute than ever.
Our extensive potash coverage includes MOP, SOP and NOP. Argus has many decades of experience covering the potash market and we incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise to provide potash price assessments, analysis and data that provides the full narrative.
Argus support market participants with:
- Weekly potash price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of potash prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest potash news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global potash industry.
US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand
US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand
Washington, 12 December (Argus) — US rail volume is likely to start strong in 2025, but railroads will need to navigate changing federal policies, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said. Volume next year hinges on a few key factors, including the resilience of consumer spending, strength in the labor market, and the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, the group said. Railroads will need to remain vigilant as these economic indicators will be critical in helping assess rail traffic and broader economic health in the months ahead, AAR said. "Strong intermodal growth and stable consumer demand offers reasons for optimism," AAR said. "But railroads and the economy alike must navigate evolving policies and potential disruptions" as the US enters 2025 under a new administration, the group said. The AAR'S optimism comes as rail traffic in November "while by no means stellar, suggests that the broader economy remains on stable footing", AAR said. US intermodal rail volume set new records in November. The increase reflected strong consumer demand following job gains that pushed increased spending, AAR said. Intermodal traffic is made up primarily of consumer goods shipped in containers between different modes of transportation, although some scrap metal and specialty agriculture products ship this way. US railroads loaded an average of 282,000 intermodal containers and trailers per week, up by 11pc from a year earlier. That was the highest weekly average for any November since AAR began tracking intermodal data in 1989. Carload traffic fell by 3.8pc compared with November 2023. Carload traffic is primarily made up of commodities. Coal was the "biggest problem", AAR said. US railroads loaded 15pc less coal last month compared with a year earlier, while year-to-date loadings were down by 14pc from the same 11 months in 2023. If coal were excluded, monthly US carload traffic in November would have notched a 10th consecutive year-on-year increase. Industrial products volume was down by 1pc from a year earlier. Manufacturing is a major driver of US carload traffic, and that sector remains sluggish, AAR said. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Namibia bans fertilizer deliveries to neighbours
Namibia bans fertilizer deliveries to neighbours
London, 12 December (Argus) — The Namibian government has prohibited the import, storage, packaging and transit of fertilizers for delivery to countries other than Namibia. A notice was issued by the agriculture, water and land reform ministry (MAWLR) on 22 November to all companies revoking the importation and in-transit permits for fertilizers. It states that companies have 21 days to package the product in 1t bags and export the material or "surrender the products for destruction" at the company's cost. The ban comes into effect on 13 December. The notice applies to urea, MAP, DAP, amsul, CAN, NOP, MOP, SOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate. The duration of this ban is not yet known. Vessels offloading cargo intended for delivery outside Namibia will not be allowed to dock. The notice cites that the handling and storage of bulk and bagged fertilizers at Walvis Bay does not meet regulatory requirements. It also states that environmental and safety risks for contamination, leakage and exposure to external elements could have a long-term effect. The Walvis Bay port is used for offloading fertilizer deliveries before they are transited to inland countries such as Botswana, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Shipments for these countries are now likely to be rerouted through Beira, Mozambique. Negotiations between the governments of Namibia and Zambia are reportedly under way. Zambia is currently experiencing a severe fertilizer shortage, and given the delays at Beira, importing via Namibia and transporting it inland is the country's next best alternative to procure the volumes in time. By Upasruti Biswas and Nykole King Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mosaic potash output returns at Canada facility
Mosaic potash output returns at Canada facility
Houston, 3 December (Argus) — Potash production resumed this week at major North American fertilizer producer Mosaic's Colonsay processing facility in Saskatchewan, Canada, after the roof collapsed last month. Output at the facility resumed on 1 December after being previously halted on 19 November when the roof of a structure that houses its potash manufacturing process collapsed. The incident appears to be isolated, as no injuries or safety incidents related to the event took place and Mosaic's potash reserves were unaffected. Mosaic does not anticipate an impact to overall fourth quarter sales, it said. The Colonsay mine site has a capacity of 1.5mn metric tonnes (t) of potash annually but produced only 600,00t in 2023. More recently production at Colonsay and the nearby Esterhazy mine was disrupted during the third quarter of this year because of electrical issues that have since been handled. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump tariff could hit Canada potash to US
Trump tariff could hit Canada potash to US
Houston, 27 November (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico could increase potash prices in the US. Trump said Monday via social media that he would he would slap 25pc tariffs on all products from the two neighboring countries after he takes office on 20 January. For the US fertilizer market, the greatest potential impact would be on potash. Canada provided 87pc of all US potash imports at 11.7mn metric tonnes in the fertilizer year ended in June, according to US Census Bureau data. The potential tariffs put Canadian suppliers in a tight spot. They could cut prices to mitigate importers' higher costs. Or they could hold prices steady to maintain netbacks but risk losing sales in the US market on which they rely and have extensive distribution networks. US Corn Belt MOP prices have dropped to around $300/st fot in November. With a 25pc tariff added on, importers would need to sell MOP at $375/st fot to receive the same margins. Canadian producers could also eat some of the tariff cost, as they have limited alternative markets for US volumes. The overall impact remains unclear and "too early to tell," according to market participants. One potential sign of the tariff threat taking effect would be if US buyers move up winter fill buying to December to get ahead of the 20 January deadline. Canada could retaliate with its own tariffs, just as Mexico has said it would consider . Trump, who used tariff negotiations as a negotiation tactic in his first presidential term, could also end up exempting fertilizer products from his proposed tariffs, according to market participants. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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