Nitrogen
Overview
The ease of urea availability east and west of Suez has shaped the current trade flows of this key nitrogen fertilizer. Despite challenges posed by energy prices and military conflicts, key import markets such as India, Australia, and Latin America remain robust. But structural oversupply and the role of China as a swing exporter have led to price volatility as this fast-moving market seeks equilibrium, more so during seasonally high-demand periods.
Our extensive nitrogen coverage includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulphate. Argus has many decades of experience covering the nitrogen market and incorporates our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including ammonia and natural gas to provide the full market narrative.
Argus support market participants with:
- Daily and weekly nitrogen price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of urea prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest nitrogen news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global nitrogen industry.
Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q
Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q
Houston, 26 December (Argus) — US ammonium sulfate (amsul) prices are likely to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2025 because of increased demand, high feedstock costs and more forward purchases as buyers look to avoid the high prices seen last spring. Scarcity seen in the 2023-2024 fertilizer year in the US amsul market has continued into 2024-2025. Strong demand has drained US inventories, despite rising domestic production in the third quarter, which increased by 11pc to 4.8mn short tons (st) compared to the five-year average of 4.25mn st, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). But production in the fourth quarter has fallen because of extended plant downtime. Major production facilities such as AdvanSix's 1.75mn st Hopewell, Virginia, plant and Nutrien's 700,000 metric tonne (t) Redwater, Alberta, plant underwent prolonged turnarounds in the fourth quarter, according to sources. The unplanned downtime reduced the availability of pre-pay volumes in the market and caused at least one producer to partly cover their reduced output by purchasing imports. But imports have only provided the US market with limited supply relief. Year-over-year, US imports are lagging by 17pc from July through October. Around 282,700t of amsul entered the US during the period, compared to the 338,600t that arrived in the same period last year. This year's imports are still 11pc greater than the five-year average, illustrating the trend of demand growth in the US. Increasing feedstock costs have also supported amsul prices through the back-half of 2024. Fertilizer producer IOC said higher feedstock costs were the primary driver of its fourth quarter price hike at the start of October. Feedstock ammonia prices are expected to slip or remain stable for January because of seasonal weakness and lower global prices, said sources. Feedstock sulfur market prices on the other hand have risen over the period and may incur a $20-30/st increase because of rising global demand, according to market participants. Amsul's relationship status update Amsul values slipped in December and early January of last year, allowing the market to buy at lower values before the spring season. The opposite is anticipated to occur this year after major producers AdvanSix and IOC increased their offers for first quarter pre-pay delivery in December. Despite the rising price of amsul, buyers have been lining up more forward deliveries this fall than other years, according to sources. In lieu of hand-to-mouth buying and rising prices last spring, buyers are looking to hedge against potential volatility in the back half of the fertilizer year. Bolstered demand has led to additional price strength which is expected to persist through the winter season. Demand for ammonium sulfate arrived earlier than usual but it is unclear whether it will resurface as strong in the spring. Amsul price in the US Corn Belt recently rose to an average of $380/st, 20pc above the average price in December of last year. Amsul prices typically rise in the spring season when applications begin, so amsul values would appreciate even further if that trend occurs this year. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IOC increases 1Q amsul offers on increased demand
IOC increases 1Q amsul offers on increased demand
Houston, 17 December (Argus) — Major amsul and amthio producer Interoceanic Corp. (IOC) increased its first quarter offers today following significant nutrient demand. IOC announced new amsul offers, ranging from a $40-90/st increase across locations from previously posted values. The smallest value change occurred at its Houston/Pasadena location, which increased by $40/st to $385/st fob. The largest increase in pricing occurred at the Sioux City/Omaha/Casselton, North Dakota location — a $90/st climb to $460/st fob. The company released new amthio offers as well for first quarter delivery. Houston offers rose by $10/st to $190/st fob and Cincinnati prices rose by $20/st to $260/st fob. The company detailed high demand for pre-paid volumes in recent weeks as the principal motive for climbing values. This is nearly a month after the previous price increase and tailed producer AdvanSix's price increase by a week . By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand
US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand
Washington, 12 December (Argus) — US rail volume is likely to start strong in 2025, but railroads will need to navigate changing federal policies, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said. Volume next year hinges on a few key factors, including the resilience of consumer spending, strength in the labor market, and the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, the group said. Railroads will need to remain vigilant as these economic indicators will be critical in helping assess rail traffic and broader economic health in the months ahead, AAR said. "Strong intermodal growth and stable consumer demand offers reasons for optimism," AAR said. "But railroads and the economy alike must navigate evolving policies and potential disruptions" as the US enters 2025 under a new administration, the group said. The AAR'S optimism comes as rail traffic in November "while by no means stellar, suggests that the broader economy remains on stable footing", AAR said. US intermodal rail volume set new records in November. The increase reflected strong consumer demand following job gains that pushed increased spending, AAR said. Intermodal traffic is made up primarily of consumer goods shipped in containers between different modes of transportation, although some scrap metal and specialty agriculture products ship this way. US railroads loaded an average of 282,000 intermodal containers and trailers per week, up by 11pc from a year earlier. That was the highest weekly average for any November since AAR began tracking intermodal data in 1989. Carload traffic fell by 3.8pc compared with November 2023. Carload traffic is primarily made up of commodities. Coal was the "biggest problem", AAR said. US railroads loaded 15pc less coal last month compared with a year earlier, while year-to-date loadings were down by 14pc from the same 11 months in 2023. If coal were excluded, monthly US carload traffic in November would have notched a 10th consecutive year-on-year increase. Industrial products volume was down by 1pc from a year earlier. Manufacturing is a major driver of US carload traffic, and that sector remains sluggish, AAR said. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Namibia bans fertilizer deliveries to neighbours
Namibia bans fertilizer deliveries to neighbours
London, 12 December (Argus) — The Namibian government has prohibited the import, storage, packaging and transit of fertilizers for delivery to countries other than Namibia. A notice was issued by the agriculture, water and land reform ministry (MAWLR) on 22 November to all companies revoking the importation and in-transit permits for fertilizers. It states that companies have 21 days to package the product in 1t bags and export the material or "surrender the products for destruction" at the company's cost. The ban comes into effect on 13 December. The notice applies to urea, MAP, DAP, amsul, CAN, NOP, MOP, SOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate. The duration of this ban is not yet known. Vessels offloading cargo intended for delivery outside Namibia will not be allowed to dock. The notice cites that the handling and storage of bulk and bagged fertilizers at Walvis Bay does not meet regulatory requirements. It also states that environmental and safety risks for contamination, leakage and exposure to external elements could have a long-term effect. The Walvis Bay port is used for offloading fertilizer deliveries before they are transited to inland countries such as Botswana, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Shipments for these countries are now likely to be rerouted through Beira, Mozambique. Negotiations between the governments of Namibia and Zambia are reportedly under way. Zambia is currently experiencing a severe fertilizer shortage, and given the delays at Beira, importing via Namibia and transporting it inland is the country's next best alternative to procure the volumes in time. By Upasruti Biswas and Nykole King Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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