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New Zealand sets 51-55pc emission cut by 2035 target
New Zealand sets 51-55pc emission cut by 2035 target
Edinburgh, 30 January (Argus) — New Zealand has submitted its new 2035 target today, aiming for 51-55pc cuts in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) compared with 2005 gross levels. Countries party to the Paris agreement must submit new climate plans — nationally determined contribution (NDCs) for 2035 — to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by 10 February, as part of the so-called ratchet mechanism which requires them to review and revise plans every five years. The target includes all sectors of New Zealand's economy and all GHGs. The sectors covered comprise energy, industrial processes and product use, agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and waste. The country's second NDC target is expressed as a range "to respond to evolving national circumstances, notably the high proportion of biogenic methane from agriculture in New Zealand's emissions profile," the NDC said. The country's largest source of emissions is the agricultural sector, making up 53pc of total emissions in 2022, according to the environment ministry. With this target, the country's net emissions would reach between 39mn t and 42mn of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2035, according to the environment ministry. The target covers the 2031-2035 time period, but is set as a single-year goal. Single-year goals aim to cut emissions by a single target year, while multi-year goals aim to reduce emissions over a defined period. A multi-year goal is typically more effective when it comes to limiting cumulative emissions, according to the GHG protocol, a GHG cut framework established by the World Resources Institute. New Zealand committed to reduce GHG emissions by 50pc by 2030, from a 2005 baseline. It is also a single year — "point year" — target but is managed using a carbon budget across the NDC period. The country said today the lower range of its 2035 target aligns with its third emissions budget — maximum quantity of emissions allowed in a five-year period — for 2031-35, but the upper end of the range goes beyond "the budget to achieve greater emissions but still remains feasible". New Zealand's emissions budget for 2031-35 is 240mn t of CO2e, according to environment ministry data. New Zealand said the country will publish its third emissions reduction plan for the period 2031–35 in light of the new NDC in 2029, and it will "continue to assess, realign and introduce policies to reduce emissions". This plan would cover the third emission budget period. The country said it aims to achieve its new NDC target through domestic emissions reductions and removals, but may take part in "co-operation under Article 6 during the NDC period". Article 6 of the Paris accord includes two mechanisms aimed at helping countries meet their emissions reduction targets and NDCs through carbon trading . By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ukraine corn in uphill battle with US, S America supply
Ukraine corn in uphill battle with US, S America supply
Kyiv, 29 January (Argus) — Ukrainian corn is struggling to compete against rival supplies from the US, Argentina and Brazil, as Ukraine's producers continue to hold back volumes in anticipation of higher prices in October-September. Ukraine's share in the global corn market is likely to shrink, in part because its production and exports are forecast to drop in 2024-25. In contrast, the world's top three corn exporters — Argentina, Brazil and the US — are each projected to increase exports. Since December, Ukraine's corn export pace has slowed , both because of lower volumes available, and because Ukraine's corn prices have struggled to compete against prices in Argentina, Brazil and the US. Ukrainian exporters have at times struggled to take advantage of periods of rising prices among Ukraine's competitors. Ukrainian producers have typically reacted to any global price increases by raising their own price expectations, eroding sales. When global prices decline, Ukraine's corn producers also opt to hold back their volumes, anticipating a rebound in prices at a later date. This often has resulted in farmers expecting higher prices during the northern hemisphere's spring or summer, when they anticipate potential support from risks to production in Argentina or Brazil. That said, the global corn supply-demand balance in 2024-25 is forecast to be somewhat resilient to supply shortfalls. Global corn supply is forecast 7mn t above projections for global imports, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), leaving some room for uncertainty around production in South America. Ukraine exports to fall with output While global corn exports are forecast slightly lower on the year in 2024-25 at 191.4mn t, Argentina, Brazil and the US are projected to increase their combined corn exports to 145.2mn t in 2024-25, up from 131.7mn t a year earlier, according to the USDA. US 2024-25 corn exports are forecast to rise by 4mn t to 62.2mn t, Argentina's corn exports are projected to increase by 2mn t to 36mn t and Brazil's exports are forecast to rise by 7.5mn t to 47mn t. In contrast, Ukraine's exports are forecast to fall by 6.5mn t on the year to 23mn t as production falls by 6mn t to 26.5mn t, according to the USDA. Losing ground in China Both Brazil and the US could pose competition to Ukrainian corn for shipments to China this year. But China's overall demand is forecast sharply lower in 2024-25, leaving Ukraine to seek other outlets for its corn exports . The US has steadily increased its share of Spain's corn import market in 2024-25. Total commitments of US corn to Spain since the start of the exporter's marketing year in September reached 942,600t as of 16 January — already higher than the total 2023-24 exports of around 711,000t, according to USDA and customs data. Competing with Argentina The main destination where Ukrainian corn competes with Argentinian product is Egypt. While Argentina's 2024-25 crop has come under threat from unfavourable weather conditions, Egyptian buyers have also been booking corn from Brazil and the US. As a result, any further declines in Argentinian corn output, or less competitive prices, could still leave Egypt with multiple options to choose from. And Ukrainian corn producers could raise their price expectations more, even if Argentina's corn output falls so short of forecasts as to boost global corn prices for an extended period of time. Brazil crop coming in May Brazil's new-crop corn is set to hit the global market in May, and the origin traditionally ships volumes to many of Ukraine's corn export destinations, including Egypt, China, Spain and Portugal. Provided Brazil's 2024-25 corn output is close to forecasts, Ukrainian exports could struggle to compete against the ample volumes leaving Brazilian ports. By Alexey Yeromin Global corn trade, USDA mn t Top importers of Ukrainian corn (Oct 2017-Sep 2024) mn t Corn exports from top 4 exporters, USDA mn t Top importers of US corn (Oct 2017-Sep 2024) mn t Top importers of Brazilian corn (Oct 2017-Sep 2024) mn t Top importers of Argentinian corn (Oct 2017-Sep 2024) mn t Map of top importers of Brazilian corn (Oct 2017-Sep 2024) mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ukraine corn seeks other buyers in lieu of China
Ukraine corn seeks other buyers in lieu of China
Kyiv, 28 January (Argus) — China's sharp drop in corn imports this marketing year, a key factor weighing on projected global corn imports in 2024-25, has made Ukrainian corn exporters double down on offering to other buyers, such as Turkey, Egypt and the EU. Despite Ukraine's corn exports forecast to fall on the year in 2024-25 (October-September), slower exports since December are adding to pressure on sellers of Ukrainian corn to seek outlets for their product. China demand looks to domestic crop, Brazil Global corn imports are forecast to fall to 183.2mn t in 2024-25, down from 197.1mn t the previous year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). For Ukraine's exports, the main challenge stemming from lower global imports is the sharp drop in purchases from the main buyer of Ukrainian corn — China. Chinese corn imports are projected to fall to 13mn t in 2024-25, down from 23.4mn t a year earlier, according to the USDA. Argus forecasts China's 2024-25 corn imports even lower — at 7.2mn t, with some of China's local analysts expecting imports lower still. The forecasted drop in China's import demand comes largely from the country's record domestic corn production in 2024-25, estimated by the USDA at 295mn t. Before China's domestic corn harvest, Chinese demand focused on Brazil. As for Ukraine, from the start of the 2024-25 season in October to the end of December, exporters declared only one Panamax vessel carrying corn for export to China. While the trade captured the attention of Ukraine's market participants, further volumes did not follow. Turkish corn demand to weaken further out In the absence of Chinese purchases, Turkey was the largest buyer of Ukrainian corn in October-December 2024, booking 1.6mn t — nearly as much as the 1.7mn t it had purchased throughout the whole of 2023-24. That said, shipments to Turkey for the remainder of the season may struggle to offset the drop in China-bound demand, given lower imports forecast for the whole of the season. Turkey is projected to receive 2.4mn t in 2024-25, down from 3.2mn t a year earlier. The higher volumes of Ukrainian corn shipped to Turkey in October-December were at least in part driven by a notable drop in Russia's corn exports in 2024-25, which are forecast to halve on the year to 3.3mn t, according to the USDA. Sellers of Ukrainian corn eye Egypt Exports to Egypt in the first three months of the 2024-25 marketing year reached only around 540,000t, compared with a total of 3.64mn t exported to the country in 2023-24. This, despite the USDA forecasting Egypt's total corn imports this marketing year at 8.2mn t, slightly up from 8mn t a year ago, suggesting that Egypt could bring forward purchases in 2025. That said, buyers looking to secure Egypt-bound corn this marketing year have also looked towards South America, pushing sellers of Ukrainian corn to keep their offers competitive against Brazilian and Argentinian corn. EU demand for Ukrainian corn mixed In line with trends in previous marketing years, EU members have been among the top five buyers of Ukrainian corn so far in 2024-25. Italy ramped up purchases of Ukrainian product significantly compared with the previous season, booking 1.1mn t of Ukrainian corn for the first three months of 2024-25. This compares with the 1.8mn t of Ukrainian corn booked by Italy throughout the whole of 2023-24. Greater demand from Italy partly offset weaker demand from Spain. Ukraine exported only 1.1mn t of corn to Spain in October-December 2024, a fifth of the 5.5mn t of Ukrainian corn shipped to Spain throughout the whole of 2023-24. And corn exports to Portugal dropped sharply in October-December 2024 to only 30,000t, compared with a total of 1mn t shipped throughout 2023-24. The drop in Ukraine's exports to some of the EU's largest corn importers is unlikely to come from weaker overall corn demand — the USDA forecasts the bloc's 2024-25 corn imports at 19.5mn t, down only slightly from 19.8mn t a year earlier. Instead, EU member states are more likely to be weighing up Ukrainian corn against some of its main competitors this season — the US, Brazil and Argentina. By Alexey Yeromin Select regions' corn imports mn t Select countries' corn imports mn t Main destinations for Ukraine's corn exports Oct-Dec 2024 mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's Bndes, IDB eye Amazon recovery
Brazil's Bndes, IDB eye Amazon recovery
Sao Paulo, 27 January (Argus) — Brazil's development bank Bndes and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) will finance $1mn in projects to help restore Amazonian states' forests and boost regional economy. The partnership aims to help preserve the Amazon rainforest and strengthen sustainable agricultural practices through joint projects between public and private parties. States that house the Amazon rainforest are northern Acre, Amapa, Amazonas, Para, Rondonia, Roraima and Tocantins, along with central-western Mato Grosso and northeastern Maranhao. Bndes did not disclose when the project will begin. This is the latest of a series of Bndes investmnets to restore the Amazon. The bank has sent R405mn ($68.3mn) to eight Brazilian states to help firefighters combat wildfires and prevent deforestation. It also set out a R1bn plan to restore deforested and degraded areas in the Amazon in 2023 . Brazil, which will host the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November, faced rampant deforestation in previous governments . Almost half of Brazil's emissions were linked to land-use and forestry as of January 2024 . Brazil's emission reduction targets made on previous Cop summits rely heavily on slashing deforestation, specially in Amazon. Brazil's portion of the Amazon biome lost over 17.6mn hectares to wildfires in 2024 . That accounts for 58pc of the country's total burnt area during the year, up by 62pc from 10.8mn ha a year before. Para, where Cop 30 will take place, has prioritized sustainable economic activities and forest recovery efforts to diversify its income generation , governor Helder Barbalho said on the World Economic Forum last week. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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