Coal
Overview
Global thermal coal prices surged to record levels in 2022, experiencing unprecedented volatility. Prices have since come off as risks associated with Europe’s supply recede. At a global level, coal demand remains robust with security of supply shifting higher up the agenda of many governments in light of geopolitical upheaval.
In Europe, sanctions have shifted the region’s coal import mix away from Russia and towards other suppliers. The pace of coal plant phase-outs in the region is set to increase in the years ahead, with the role of coal in the electricity mix shifting further towards peak-load usage, making forward planning more challenging.
In Asia-Pacific, thermal coal remains a pillar of the power and industrial sectors. Global coal trade flows and price spreads are shifting, with flows from key suppliers Russia, Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, Colombia, and the US penetrating new markets, in response to price dynamics and trade barriers.
Keeping on top of prices and flows, and how coal markets intersect with other energy and commodity benchmarks, will be critical in the coming years.
Latest coal news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global coal industry.
UN backs ICJ climate ruling, key oil nations opposed
UN backs ICJ climate ruling, key oil nations opposed
Edinburgh, 21 May (Argus) — The UN general assembly has adopted a resolution welcoming an International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion on the obligations of countries to protect the environment from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with only eight countries opposing — including the three largest oil producers the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Pacific island nation Vanuatu put forward the resolution to the UN general assembly, saying "the ICJ advisory opinion confirms that the protection of the climate system is a matter of legal obligation not political discretion". It was adopted on Wednesday, 20 May, with 141 votes in favour, including the world's largest GHG emitter China, eight against and 28 abstentions. Belarus, Iran, Israel, Liberia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the US and Yemen voted against. The ICJ last year determined in an advisory opinion that all countries have an obligation to contribute to cutting emissions. This is not legally binding but could open door for more climate litigation . ICJ advisory opinions "carry significant legal and moral authority — helping to clarify and develop international law by defining states' legal obligations", the UN said. The UN resolution adopted calls on UN member states "to take all possible steps to avoid causing significant damage to the climate and environment, including emissions produced within their borders, and to follow through on their existing climate pledges under the Paris Agreement". Adoption "sends a strong message that tackling the climate crisis is a legal duty under international law, and not just a political choice," the UN said. The US opposed the resolution, with its representative saying the country has many concerns about the court's opinion. The US noted the resolution includes "inappropriate political demands relating to fossil fuels". Countries such as India, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Algeria said the resolution failed to address the obligations on the provision of finance to developing countries, saying the focus was "disproportionally" on mitigation. India, Iraq and Algeria abstained. Russia said the resolution is an attempt to make ICJ opinion "mandatory in nature". It added the resolution "selectively cites the conclusion of the advisory opinion" and the outcomes of the UN climate conferences Cops, ignoring finance and adaptation — adjusting to the effects of climate change where possible. Algeria said the resolution is excessively "highlighting and rewriting" decisions from previous Cop outcomes. The text urges members to implement measures to keep the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, including tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies which were agreed at Cop 28 in Dubai. The UAE voted in favour of the resolution. Brazil, the Cop 30 president, also adopted the resolution, while Turkey, which will host Cop 31 in Antalya later this year, abstained. Australia, which will preside on negotiations of Cop 31, supported the resolution but said it should not be "interpreted as our agreement with every element of the advisory opinion". By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesian coal shares fall as policy move jolts market
Indonesian coal shares fall as policy move jolts market
Singapore, 21 May (Argus) — Jakarta Stock Exchange-listed coal producers are facing heightened volatility after the government outlined plans to channel coal exports, alongside other commodities, through a new state-owned entity, deepening an already difficult year for the sector. The drop in shares can affect market valuations of large Indonesian coal producers, and dent ability to access credit. It can hence make bank loans and bond refinancing significantly more expensive. Coal producers Bumi Resources and Bayan Resources extended their losses on 21 May, closing 5.2pc and 6.47pc lower, respectively. This pushed their year-to-date declines to 55.19pc and 33pc, while both stocks have fallen sharply over the past five days — down by 23.4pc and 6.5pc. The weakness was broad-based across the sector. The IDX Sector Energy Index fell by 6.9pc, dragged lower by heavy selling in major coal names. Singapore-listed Geo Energy also came under pressure, closing 5.1pc lower and extending its five-day losses to around 20pc. Selling pressure intensified as little clarity emerged on how existing contracts will be handled . Utilities in southeast Asia and India are seeking assurances from Indonesian suppliers, and reaction from China — the largest buyer of Indonesian coal — has been cautious, with some participants questioning whether the policy is workable in practice. An Indonesian producer said it had received multiple customer queries on contract fulfilment, but that guidance remains limited, although the market impact on state-controlled coal producer Bukit Asam appeared to be limited. Shares of Bukit Asam closed 3.9pc lower on 21 May, down by 4.2pc over the last five days, but still up by 17.3pc since the beginning of the year. Some other coal producers were also up on a year-to-date basis as an increase in coal price since the beginning of this year had buoyed investor confidence, while Bukit Asam also gets priority in domestic sales, partly cushioning it from policy changes with respect to export-oriented transactions. The coal industry wants technical clarity over long-term supply agreements and multi-year offtake contracts that could potentially be at risk because of the policy change. Maybank Securities has advised clients to largely avoid the commodities sector pending clearer policy direction. Policy uncertainty is also compounding an already weak macro backdrop, further eroding investor confidence. OCBC Research pointed to persistent foreign outflows from Indonesian equities, with the rupiah down by around 7pc year to date versus the dollar. The Indonesian currency has been among Asia's worst-performing in recent months. The recent move by Bank Indonesia, the country's central bank, to tighten rates has offered only limited support, with analysts pointing to policy clarity, rather than monetary action, as key to stabilising sentiment. Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto probably expects that export sales through state-owned entity would help to ensure that sale proceeds are parked within Indonesia. He cited an estimated $908bn in lost revenue over the past 34 years due to under-invoicing, transfer pricing and weak oversight of commodity export proceeds, arguing that tighter governance is needed to capture the full value of strategic commodities. The 20 May announcement is the latest in a series of policy changes that aim to give Jakarta tighter controls over the country's coal mining industry and bolster prices. The latest policy will be rolled out in phases from June through August. Exporters will gradually shift contracts, transactions and payment flows to the BUMN — the state owned entity that will be created to centralise commodity exports — before the entity moves to full end-to-end control of transactions from September, and after December only the state entity would be able to export coal. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia's commodity export plan rattles coal market
Indonesia's commodity export plan rattles coal market
Singapore, 21 May (Argus) — Indonesian coal suppliers and buyers are assessing the commercial implications of Jakarta's decision to channel exports of key commodities such as coal and palm oil through state-owned enterprises (SOEs), otherwise known as BUMN, which has created uncertainty around existing supply contracts and raised questions over the role of traders. The 20 May announcement is the latest in a series of policy changes that aim to give Jakarta tighter controls over the country's coal mining industry and bolster prices. These policy shifts follow a protracted downturn in prices that began in 2022, although prices have since recovered. Argus last assessed Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal at $63.77/t fob Kalimantan for coal loading on Supramax vessels, the highest since May 2023. The price increase has largely been driven by supply concerns after producers faced delays in receiving their 2026 work plans and budgets (RKAB), or output quotas. Other recent measures announced by the government that aim to tighten controls include plans to slash coal output this year, revising the validity period for RKABs back to one year from three previously, withholding coal export sales proceeds in onshore bank accounts and tweaking the domestic HBA coal reference price. Jakarta also previously announced plans to introduce a coal export tax, although this has been delayed. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal and shipped about 524mn t — more than half of total global seaborne supply — in 2025, although this was down by 6pc on the year. Last year's decline in exports was the first since 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic weighed heavily on industry, denting global demand and at the same time affecting supply chain logistics. Phased rollout planned The latest policy will be rolled out in phases from June through August. Exporters will gradually shift contracts, transactions and payment flows to the BUMN, before the entity moves to full end-to-end control of transactions from September. It is unclear if there will be one enterprise or multiple entities, although a market participant said the BUMN could be linked to Danantara Indonesia. The BUMN will initially cover coal, palm oil and ferroalloys — commodities that accounted for around 23pc of Indonesia's total exports in 2025 — with the scope subject to quarterly review and possible expansion, according to research from Singapore's OCBC bank. The entity could essentially work as a marketing agent and export coal procured from domestic producers, traders said. President Prabowo Subianto cited an estimated $908bn in lost revenue over the past 34 years due to under-invoicing, transfer pricing and weak oversight of commodity export proceeds, arguing that tighter governance is needed to capture the full value of strategic commodities. The move comes at a time when the Indonesian currency has been among Asia's worst-performing in recent months, reflecting pressure from capital outflows and global dollar strength. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, representing 913 companies spanning sectors including commodities and energy, is down 30pc from the start of the year. Market participants said the absence of detailed transition guidance is already disrupting trade flows. A Singapore-based coal trader said there is no clarity on how existing contracts with shipments due this year will be handled, and all market participants are awaiting more operational details, which typically takes time to emerge in the commodity markets. Utilities in parts of southeast Asia as well as in India are concerned about term supplies and are seeking inputs from Indonesian suppliers on contracted deliveries. Reaction from China, the biggest buyer of Indonesian coal, has so far been cautious, with some market participants arguing that it will be difficult to implement such a policy in practice. An Indonesian coal producer acknowledged that it has received a number of calls from customers, seeking clarity on whether it will be able to fulfil contracts, but added that there are no clear answers as of now. Term supply contracts in focus The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) warned that a lack of technical clarity on how current sales will migrate to a BUMN-led structure could jeopardise long-term supply agreements, particularly multi-year offtake contracts. The industry is seeking confirmation on whether existing contracts will be honoured or will have to be renegotiated. In the spot market, at least one low-calorific value (CV) coal supplier has raised offers for July-loading Panamax cargoes of GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal by as much as 10pc. Broader spot offers may be withheld pending policy clarity, traders said. While some market participants expect existing contracts to be honoured at least through this year, uncertainty remains elevated. Participants also raised broader structural concerns about the BUMN model. Coal transactions involve multiple technical and commercial variables — including CV, ash, moisture and sulphur content, vessel scheduling, blending requirements and payment terms — requiring significant operational expertise. The questions in the market range from operational issues involving mine planning to barge loading and transshipment to the risk of disputes, a trader said. There is also uncertainty surrounding long term off-take agreements between trading companies and producers, some of which involve pre-payments and funding arrangements. Traders with existing positions may face pressure to declare force majeure if the policy disrupts their ability to meet contractual obligations, a market participant said. The framework also adds another regulatory layer to an already complex environment that includes domestic market obligation (DMO) rules, export licensing, royalty adjustments, RKAB approvals, downstreaming requirements and directives to park sales proceeds in Indonesian banks for at least one year. An indirect policy impact could be on jobs that may be lost in the industry along with the potential removal of competition in the sector. There are also questions around the survival and existence of some trading and service companies, an official with a large southeast Asian utility said. Authorities will need to ensure private-sector incentives remain intact, OCBC said, warning that concerns about crowding out could deter investments in the coal sector, unless mitigated through policy clarity and ongoing engagement. Non-tax revenues are closely tied to commodity prices and there could be market volatility because of the plan, OCBC added. By Saurabh Chaturvedi and Andrew Jones Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australian activists challenge Glencore coal expansion
Australian activists challenge Glencore coal expansion
Sydney, 21 May (Argus) — Australian environmentalists have launched court action to block Glencore's planned expansion of its Hail Creek open-cut coal mine in Queensland, citing concerns over methane emissions and native habitat destruction. The Mackay Conservation Group (MCG) lodged an objection against the proposed expansion in the Queensland Land Court on 20 May. The project would extend Hail Creek's mine life by three years, to 2038, and increase total run of mine (ROM) coal production by 24mn t. The mine is currently approved to produce 20mn t/yr of ROM coal. The project is inconsistent with domestic and international climate commitments, MCG said, estimating it would release over 70mn t of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and destroy around 600 hectares (ha) of high-quality koala habitat. The Hail Creek coal mine is regulated under Australia's Safeguard Mechanism, which imposes legislated emissions limits on large facilities, a Glencore spokesperson told Argus . The proposed expansion also includes a GHG emissions abatement plan and detailed mitigation measures for koala habitat, the spokesperson said. Glencore's draft emissions plan outlines the use of existing and emerging technologies to reduce fugitive emissions, including pre-drainage of methane from open-cut operations. Further studies are required to assess the viability of methane pre-drainage, which would be completed within two years of any project approval, the company said. Previous academic studies have indicated that methane emissions from Hail Creek may be four to five times higher than reported. By Emma Partis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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