Jet fuel
Overview
Jet fuel market volatility, whether from crude prices, supply issues from refining capacity, or ongoing regulation changes, is a continual risk to your bottom line.
Having a choice in fuel pricing is the best way to mitigate risk and stay on top of market changes. Argus constructs price indexation in a way that is appropriate for each market. By doing so, market participants can align their day-to-day operations, improve management of fuel costs and directly impact their net earnings.
Jet fuel makes up more than 40% of an airline’s total operating expense. The rise in importance of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from government mandates and self-regulations from airlines has a direct implication on these operating costs.
Argus helps the jet fuel market participants to make informed decisions and optimize their strategies with price assessments and information on deals done for conventional jet fuel and SAF, as well as the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, and price forecasts.
Latest jet fuel news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global jet fuel industry.
Mexico air traffic to rise 4-6pc during World Cup
Mexico air traffic to rise 4-6pc during World Cup
Mexico City, 21 May (Argus) — Mexico's passenger air traffic could rise by 4-6pc during the 2026 Fifa World Cup, providing a boost to jet fuel demand despite Mexico hosting only a fraction of tournament matches, financial group Monex said. The uptick would be below the 8-15pc increases recorded by host countries during the 2018 and 2022 World Cups because Mexico is not the tournament's primary host, according to Monex. Mexico will host 13 of the tournament's 104 matches from 11 June-5 July, while the competition will conclude on 19 July in the US. Airport operators are expected to be among the sectors that benefit most from the event. Monex forecasts passenger traffic growth of 3.9pc for operator Asur, 2.3pc for GAP and 7.3pc for OMA in 2026, with the World Cup serving as a key catalyst. Asur's largest airport is Cancun, while GAP and OMA's flagship airports are Guadalajara and Monterrey, respectively. Both cities are among the three Mexican host cities for the tournament. The increase in passenger traffic is likely to support jet fuel consumption , which has already been growing this year. Low-cost airlines Viva and Volaris have been expanding seat availability as more aircraft return to service , creating additional upside for traffic at Mexico City's international airport. Monex expects the tourism boost associated with the World Cup to extend into 2027, forecasting average passenger traffic growth of 4-5pc across Mexico's main airport groups. By Antonio Gozain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US refiners boost jet fuel to near record levels
US refiners boost jet fuel to near record levels
Houston, 21 May (Argus) — US refiners are pumping out jet fuel at a near-record pace as global demand surges because of Iran-war related supply disruptions. US jet fuel output has reached above 2mn b/d in recent weeks , as refiners have added capacity and maximized yields, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates. The output is nearing the record weekly high of about 2.1mn bl set in July 2024. Jet fuel production has increased by nearly 290,000 b/d since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on 28 February, the EIA data show. The conflict has choked off oil and products supply through the strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure, causing soaring fuel prices. US refiners expect high margins to continue at least through the end of 2026. Independent refiner Marathon Petroleum increased jet fuel capacity by 30,000 b/d at its 606,000 b/d Garyville refinery in Louisiana in March and plans to boost jet fuel capacity at its 253,000 b/d Robinson refinery in Illinois by 10,000 b/d in the third quarter. US refiner Valero has also maximized jet production in its system, increasing yields to more than 30pc of total distillates in March, up from an average of 26pc, chief operating officer Gary Simmons said on a first quarter earnings call. Valero plans to push two more refineries into "jet production mode" to increase yields even further, he said. Refiner HF Sinclair put into service a project that allows it to swing about 7,000 b/d between diesel and jet fuel at its 145,000 b/d Puget Sound refinery in Anacortes, Washington. The project is helping to supply the US west coast and Latin America, HF Sinclair said. The jet fuel production boost is not limited to the US. Canadian integrated energy company Suncor in December started producing jet fuel at its 137,000 b/d Montreal refinery in Quebec, with the potential to grow it up to 16,000 b/d. The original plan was to sell it domestically into airports in Montreal and Ottawa, but then the company saw the "unique market blowout" in the first quarter which continued into the second quarter "where jet fuel became short in certain markets", executive vice president of downstream Dave Oldreive said in a first quarter earnings call. Suncor earlier this month sold jet fuel into Rotterdam in the Netherlands, he said. Europe has sought replacement supplies following the strait of Hormuz disruptions. Jet fuel prices in the US climbed to record highs in March and early April following the start of the war. At the US Gulf coast, jet fuel prices reached an all-time high of $4.73/USG on 2 April, the highest price since Argus launched its assessment in 1994. Overall US jet fuel prices are expected to average $3.33/USG in 2026, the EIA said in its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on 12 May. That forecast is up by 74pc from the EIA's estimate before the war. Airlines pay the price Jet fuel costs for all US airlines in March averaged $3.13/USG, up by 30pc from the same month in 2025, according to Bureau of Transportation Statistics data released on 6 May. Some airlines are limiting capacity because of the higher prices. United Airlines plans to reduce its flight capacity by five percentage points in 2026 as its first quarter jet fuel costs averaged $2.78/USG, up by nearly 10pc from the first quarter of 2025. Delta Air Lines expects its jet fuel costs to roughly double in the second quarter and will keep capacity flat year-over-year "until the fuel environment improves," chief executive Ed Bastian said on a first quarter earnings call last month. Another large US carrier, American Airlines, expects its jet fuel costs to increase by $4bn in 2026 compared to previous plans. One beleaguered US airline said it could not survive the rising prices. US low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines permanently shuttered its operations on 2 May, citing higher jet fuel costs, after filing for bankruptcy protection twice since 2024. By Eunice Bridges and Hunter Fite Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Norway to debate increasing diesel, jet stocks
Norway to debate increasing diesel, jet stocks
London, 20 May (Argus) — Norway's parliament, the Storting, will tomorrow discuss a proposal to increase the country's diesel and jet fuel stocks to cover 90 days of consumption, up from the current 20 days. The parliament's energy and environment committee on 12 May requested the government "urgently establish a better system for emergency storage of diesel and aviation gasoline in Norway, which ensures security of supply in all parts of the country for 90 days". It also asked the government to "consider measures to secure the production of diesel in Norway", with an autumn deadline for government proposals. The topic was sparked by a report from the Norwegian Defence Research Institute in March, which flagged that the country is dependent on imported diesel and jet fuel, and has one refinery — the 203,000 b/d Mongstad facility, run by state-controlled Equinor. The report recommended strategic fuel stocks as a priority measure. The committee's recommendation noted Norway has "good capacity for the production of regular gasoline", but it pointed out logistics concerns, and the potential requirement for more fuel in the country's north "where nationally the greatest military activity can be expected". Norway, as Europe's biggest oil exporter, has no stockholding obligation under its IEA membership — the only country outside North America without one. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU jet fuel crisis guidance keeps SAF framework intact
EU jet fuel crisis guidance keeps SAF framework intact
London, 8 May (Argus) — The European Commission's crisis guidance on possible jet fuel shortages leaves the EU's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) framework unchanged, despite market suggestions that energy security concerns could prompt rule changes. The EU response focused on operational issues not related to SAF, such as fuel uplift rules and airport slot use. The guidance largely reiterated existing aviation rules and set out how they should be applied if fuel shortages linked to the Middle East conflict intensify, allowing limited flexibility in cases of genuine shortages while making clear that most rules remain unchanged. SAF was absent from the guidance, with no mention of raising or cutting the EU's 2pc SAF mandate. Some industry participants had suggested the commission might have encouraged greater SAF use as a substitute for fossil jet fuel. EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said last month that increasing the uptake of biofuels could substitute fossil fuels to ease market pressure. Other participants said the EU could relax SAF mandates to reduce costs, similar to Singapore's decision to postpone the start of its SAF scheme . Airlines association Airlines for Europe recently urged the EU to increase rebates for SAF costs and temporarily relax ReFuelEU's anti-tankering obligations, which are designed to prevent airlines from carrying excess fuel from cheaper locations. But the guidance confirmed that the 90pc fuel uplift rule under ReFuelEU Aviation still applies. Exemptions are only allowed in limited safety cases, such as when an airport has a confirmed jet fuel shortage and airlines need to carry extra fuel. Airlines have to prove this with official notices or supplier confirmation, and higher fuel prices or SAF costs do not count as valid reasons. As a result, the guidance is not expected to trigger widespread tankering away from EU airports. By Aidan Lea Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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