Jet fuel
Overview
Jet fuel market volatility, whether from crude prices, supply issues from refining capacity, or ongoing regulation changes, is a continual risk to your bottom line.
Having a choice in fuel pricing is the best way to mitigate risk and stay on top of market changes. Argus constructs price indexation in a way that is appropriate for each market. By doing so, market participants can align their day-to-day operations, improve management of fuel costs and directly impact their net earnings.
Jet fuel makes up more than 40% of an airline’s total operating expense. The rise in importance of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from government mandates and self-regulations from airlines has a direct implication on these operating costs.
Argus helps the jet fuel market participants to make informed decisions and optimize their strategies with price assessments and information on deals done for conventional jet fuel and SAF, as well as the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, and price forecasts.
Latest jet fuel news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global jet fuel industry.
EU downplays IEA warning on jet fuel shortage risk
EU downplays IEA warning on jet fuel shortage risk
Brussels, 17 April (Argus) — The European Commission has sought to downplay warnings about a looming jet fuel shortage in Europe, but has not ruled out taking action if supply from the Mideast Gulf remains disrupted. EU officials are "obviously" aware that jet fuel markets are tight, but "there is no indication of systemic fuel shortages that would lead to widespread flight cancellations", European Commission energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said today. EU refineries cover around 70pc of the bloc's jet fuel demand, with the remainder met by imports, according to the commission. Itkonen was responding to a warning from the IEA that jet fuel stocks in Europe may fall low enough to cause physical shortages at some airports by June unless the region can secure more than 50pc of its lost Middle East volumes. IEA executive director Fatih Birol reiterated that message on 16 April, telling the Associated Press that Europe has "maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left" if the strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Despite the EU's more sanguine tone, Itkonen said the commission is still preparing for "possible" supply shortages, and will launch "co-ordinated" action if necessary such as releasing oil stocks. A draft plan leaked earlier this week suggests the commission is due to outline measures to address rising energy prices and energy security on 22 April, focusing on jet fuel and diesel availability, refinery capacity and gas storage filling. There may be some near-term relief. Since Itkonen's comments, Iran's foreign minister has announced that the strait of Hormuz will be open to commercial vessels for the duration of the US-Iran ceasefire . By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US–Iran war draws arbitrage to plug Asia fuel gap
US–Iran war draws arbitrage to plug Asia fuel gap
Singapore, 17 April (Argus) — The US–Iran conflict has disrupted an estimated 4.5mn b/d of oil product exports from the Mideast Gulf, prompting Asia-Pacific buyers to pull cargoes from alternative supply regions to help plug mounting supply gaps. Middle distillate markets are seeing elevated inflows, with record arbitrage arrivals of around 231,000 b/d of jet fuel and gasoil expected in April, mainly from Russia, according to Kpler. For comparison, Asia-Pacific imported just 7,000 b/d from west of Suez in 2025 and 15,000 b/d in 2024. The Asia-Pacific region is typically longer and trade flows typically flow from East to West instead of the other way, but the US-Iran war has invited large volumes of "reverse arbitrage" inflows. The naphtha market has also attracted close to 3mn t of arbitrage cargoes to offset the 3-4 mn t/month from the strait of Hormuz, with close to 3mn t loaded from west of Suez in March set to arrive in April-May. But these inflows remain insufficient, as Asia typically consumes 6–7mn t/month of naphtha, most of which is sourced from the Mideast Gulf. The resulting imbalance has triggered widespread cracker run rate cuts and multiple force majeure declarations across the region. Other light distillate markets have also shown similar trends. In the gasoline market, buyers in the Asia-Pacific have drawn a record near 119,000 b/d of gasoline from west of Suez for May arrivals, according to shipping data from Kpler. This is sharply higher than 8,000 b/d in 2025 and 17,000 b/d in 2024. The influx of arbitrage cargoes have helped to stem some of the losses in supplies, although the latest easing in oil product crack spreads across the board was likely more driven more by an easing in bullish sentiment as peace and ceasefire talks have kicked off. Over the week, gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel crack spreads fell by 21pc, 12.9pc and 2.8pc to $23.74/bl, $54.56/bl and $73.51/bl, respectively. Naphtha crack spreads declined 32.15pc to $212.03/t. Price tug-of-war Looking ahead, the onset of Europe's summer driving and travel season could force Asia-Pacific buyers to widen east-west arbitrage spreads to attract sufficient cargoes. East-west spreads must rise sufficiently to offset high freight costs and incentivise flows east rather than keeping barrels in western markets. But those spreads have recently narrowed. The gasoline east-west spread fell to $2.95/bl on 15 April from $12.15/bl on 1 April. The prompt naphtha east-west spread retreated to $67.50/t from $100.75/t over the same period, while the gasoil east-west spread turned negative, dropping to –$76.16/t from $130.91/t. A narrow or negative spread significantly reduces the economic incentive for arbitrage flows into Asia. If the strait of Hormuz remains shut, refiners in the region must try to procure alternative crudes to increase runs to produce much needed domestic supplies or put a cap on demand if the east-west spread remains narrow, according to market participants. Not sustainable Arbitrage inflows are providing some relief now, but they are not a sustainable solution if the strait of Hormuz remains shut, given that there are insufficient cargoes globally to meet demand, analysts trading firms said. Prices will need to "roll up" until demand is curtailed or regional refiners raise run rates by processing alternative crude. Even then, running crudes that refineries are not designed to run will put a cap on Asia-Pacific refined product output, weighing on residual fuel production and potentially reducing secondary unit efficiency. By Aldric Chew, Asill Bardh and Cara Wong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
ARA jet fuel stocks at six-year low: Insights Global
ARA jet fuel stocks at six-year low: Insights Global
London, 16 April (Argus) — Jet fuel stocks in independently held storage at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell to their lowest level in more than six years in the week to 15 April, while naphtha inventories dropped to a one-year low, consultancy Insights Global said. Jet fuel stocks fell for a second consecutive week, down by 7.6pc to around 600,000t — the lowest level since April 2020. Independently held inventories had already been declining from late January, before jet fuel flows from the Mideast Gulf were disrupted by the US-Iran war. US jet fuel flows have since been diverted towards the UK, as the country seeks to build stocks ahead of peak summer airline demand. The UK also imported jet fuel from the ARA hub during the week, further tightening regional availability. Independently held gasoline stocks rose by 2.5pc on the week to 1.04mn t. Seasonally weak inland demand and lower pull from west Africa allowed refinery output in ARA to accumulate in storage, Insights Global said. The consultancy also noted weaker blending interest, potentially reflecting an oversupplied European gasoline market, in line with market feedback. Naphtha stocks fell sharply, down by 13.9pc to about 430,000t, their lowest level in a year. Cargoes that would typically supply Europe from Algeria and the US were instead diverted to Asia-Pacific, where buyers were willing to pay higher prices, Insights Global said. By Leon Wheeler Independent ARA stocks on 15 April 2026 000t Stocks ± week-on-week ±% week-on-week Gasoil 1,950 -142 -6.8 Fuel oil 702 37 5.6 Gasoline 1,039 25 2.5 Naphtha 429 -69 -13.9 Jet 597 -49 -7.6 Total 4,717 -198 -4.0 — Insights Global Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK jet fuel supply OK for now, outlook uncertain
UK jet fuel supply OK for now, outlook uncertain
London, 16 April (Argus) — UK jet fuel supply is currently secure but visibility beyond the next few weeks is limited, industry participants said at the UK liquid fuels trade association conference in Liverpool on Thursday. The risk of jet fuel shortages across Europe has risen because of disruption to supplies from the Mideast Gulf linked to the US-Israel war with Iran. Stock, demand and trade patterns suggest the UK is particularly exposed to tighter availability. "We're buying jet fuel today, it's available on the market," said Simon Holt, managing director of emerging energy at refiner Phillips 66. "How that's going to change, I don't know. There is less coming out of the Middle East and something has got to give." Essar Energy Transition (EET) managing director Ruth Herbert echoed that view. "There are no problems today, you can buy it, and we have some foresight on that. What will become clear in the next cycle is maybe six weeks away." Petroineos head of inland trading David Wilson indicated a similar outlook. Phillips 66 operates the UK's 230,000 b/d Killingholme refinery, while EET runs the 195,000 b/d Stanlow plant. Petroineos closed its Grangemouth refinery in Scotland last year and has repurposed the site as an import and distribution terminal. The IEA said earlier this week that European markets will need to work harder to attract more replacement jet fuel cargoes from outside the Mideast Gulf. If the region is unable to secure more than 50pc of its lost Middle East volumes, then stocks may fall low enough to cause physical shortages at some airports by June, it said. Last week, EU airports association ACI Europe warned that the EU could experience jet fuel shortages in just three weeks if Middle East flows through the strait of Hormuz do not resume "in any significant and stable way". By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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