Coal
Overview
Global thermal coal prices surged to record levels in 2022, experiencing unprecedented volatility. Prices have since come off as risks associated with Europe’s supply recede. At a global level, coal demand remains robust with security of supply shifting higher up the agenda of many governments in light of geopolitical upheaval.
In Europe, sanctions have shifted the region’s coal import mix away from Russia and towards other suppliers. The pace of coal plant phase-outs in the region is set to increase in the years ahead, with the role of coal in the electricity mix shifting further towards peak-load usage, making forward planning more challenging.
In Asia-Pacific, thermal coal remains a pillar of the power and industrial sectors. Global coal trade flows and price spreads are shifting, with flows from key suppliers Russia, Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, Colombia, and the US penetrating new markets, in response to price dynamics and trade barriers.
Keeping on top of prices and flows, and how coal markets intersect with other energy and commodity benchmarks, will be critical in the coming years.
Latest coal news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global coal industry.
Origin extends Australia’s Eraring coal plant to 2029
Origin extends Australia’s Eraring coal plant to 2029
Sydney, 20 January (Argus) — Australian utility and upstream gas firm Origin Energy will continue running the 2,880MW Eraring coal-fired power station in New South Wales (NSW) state until 2029, out from 2027 previously, in the second such extension of the plant's lifetime. Origin's decision comes after the Australian Energy Market Operator's (Aemo) Transition Plan for System Security in December 2025 found that the generator would need to be kept on line beyond its 2027 retirement date due to insufficient replacement capacity. The plant was previously expected to close in 2025 but this was pushed back in 2024, due to insufficient replacement capacity. Keeping Eraring on line until April 2029 will allow for development of more renewables, storage and transmission projects, Origin said in its 20 January announcement. The firm also highlighted "uncertainty regarding the reliability of Australia's aging coal and gas fleet". Origin does not plan to invest in further major maintenance ahead of the plant's closure and will maintain its 2030 target of cutting 20mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions by 2030, based on 2018-19 levels. Eraring's scope 1 emissions were 13.5mn t CO2e in the year to 30 June 2025, Origin reported. The company also holds a 27.5pc share of emissions from the 9mn t/yr Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) joint venture in Queensland state where it is the upstream operator of the project. No more subsidies The NSW state government's offer to underwrite Eraring's operations for two years will end in 2027 as previously announced. Australia is attempting to transition its electricity markets to become majority renewables-based. Canberra is focusing on a goal of 82pc renewable grid penetration by 2030. But this timeline is unlikely to be realised due to a slow build out of new transmission to connect wind and solar to the grid, many analysts said, while the 2,200MW Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project — designed to provide longer term storage capacity — has been delayed multiple times due to problems drilling new tunnels. Victoria state, Australia's second largest by population after NSW, is also expected to miss its 2030 renewable energy goal of 65pc generation . Queensland is meanwhile planning to continue to run its coal-fired plants into the 2040s after its state government dumped the previous administration's plans for a giant pumped hydro scheme. Meeting Australia's 2030 emissions reduction target of 43pc below 2005 levels is contingent on the retirement of major CO2 emitters such as Eraring , according to a 2025 government report. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
London, 19 January (Argus) — The IMF has upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 but warned an escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe is a "major risk." US president Donald Trump on 17 January threatened tariffs on several European countries in a bid to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. This has raised concerns about a potential trade war between Europe and the US. "If we were to enter a phase in which there would be escalation and tit-for-tat policies… that would certainly have even more of an adverse effect on the economy, both through direct channels, but also through confidence, investment, and potentially through a repricing by [financial] markets," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at the launch of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) today. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3pc, citing improvements in the US and China, and kept its projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.2pc. It puts 2025 economic growth at 3.3pc, from a previous 3.2pc. IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The IMF has repeatedly upgraded its growth projections since April 2025 and now sees 2025 and 2026 growth higher than when US-led tariff disruptions started in early 2025. The outlook's economic assumptions are current as of 31 December so do not take into account the US' latest tariff threat against European countries. It assumes an effective tariff rate of 18.5pc for US imports from the rest of the world. Any change to this would be a major risk," Gourinchas said. "This is something that could materially impact growth if we have higher levels of tariffs, if we have higher levels of geopolitical tension." The IMF said the US-led investment boom in AI and strong fiscal stimulus in China and Germany was offsetting economic losses associated with higher tariffs. But Gourinchas warned that debt financing in the AI sector was becoming more prevalent, and this could "amplify shocks if returns failed to materialise." He said any correction in AI stock market valuations would have far reaching negative effects or the global economy. The IMF said fiscal discipline is weakening across the globe, particularly in advanced economies. "The risk here [is] that countries will be unable to face the significant challenges ahead in terms of population aging, climate transition, national security or ability to support the economy, should a large shock occur," Gourinchas said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Vietnam's coal imports hit record high in 2025
Vietnam's coal imports hit record high in 2025
Singapore, 19 January (Argus) — Vietnam's coal imports reached a new all-time high in 2025, supported by an uptick in economic growth, but a sharp slowdown in demand in the second half of the year capped overall growth. Imports of all types of coal reached 3.62mn t in December 2025, sending the total for the full year to 65.43mn t, according to Vietnamese preliminary customs data. The year's imports surpassed the previous all time high of 63.82mn t in 2024. Vietnamese customs data do not differentiate between coking and thermal coal. Overall coal imports were at 4.49mn t in December, data analytics firm Kpler show, with thermal coal accounting for about 69pc of the volume at 3.1mn t. The imports could have grown more in 2025, but an extended spell of seasonal rains boosted hydropower output, reducing reliance on coal-fired generation and dampening demand for seaborne thermal coal. Receipts slipped for the second straight month in December, declining by 34pc from a year earlier and by 5.2pc from November's 3.82mn t , the data show. The annual growth in imports on 2025 followed a steady uptick in economic activity. Vietnam led southeast Asian imported coal demand growth, powered by an 8.02pc expansion in its GDP in 2025 compared with 2024. The economy expanded by 8.5pc in October-December from a year earlier, logging four straight quarters of growth. Its industrial production grew for the second straight month in December at 10.1pc from a year earlier, underscoring increase in industrial coal as well as power consumption. The rise in Vietnamese imports in 2025 also came as international coal prices remained soft, supporting buying decisions by utilities and consumers users in an oversupplied coal market. Argus assessed the widely traded GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal for Supramax vessels at $44.99/t fob Kalimantan on 24 December 2025 — the last assessment of the year. This was down by 71pc from its all-time high of $154.21/t in October 2021 and 9.9pc from a year earlier. Prices hit a more than four-year low of $39.40/t in June 2025 and have since hovered in a narrow range that some producers said barely covers costs. Imports could continue to rise this year given that Vietnam targets an economic growth rate of at least 10pc in 2026, which could mean higher power demand. A number of coal-fired utilities are slated to come on line to support the country's growth ambitions, which could also raise imports by utilities. Vietnam's generation capacity increased by 6.4GW in 2025 to 87.6GW from a year earlier. Electricity production and power imports reached 322.8TWh in 2025, up by 4.6pc from a year earlier, but the pace of growth has moderated from 2024. The government has a base case of overall generation reaching around 350TWh in 2026, which could support demand for coal from countries including Indonesia and Australia. Indonesian coal accounted for the bulk of Vietnam's imports in December at 2.36mn t, but down from 2.83mn t a year earlier. Imports from Australia slipped to 1.25mn t, down from 1.56mnt t a year earlier. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Vietnam's coal imports (mn t) Vietnam's power generation (TWh) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India posts first coal power output fall in 5 years
India posts first coal power output fall in 5 years
Singapore, 15 January (Argus) — India's coal-fired generation dropped for the first time in five years in 2025, underscoring a structural shift in the country's electricity mix that is reverberating across global coal markets. The country's coal-power generation declined by 3.4pc on the year to 1,247TWh in 2025, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority of India. This is the first decline since 2020, when coal-power output fell by 5pc to 914.74TWh from a year earlier, and is the second drop in at least half a century, according to think tank CREA. The coal power data does not include lignite-fired generation, which fell by 9.7pc to 31.32TWh in 2025. The decline comes as power output from hydro, renewable and nuclear energy rose to cater for an increase in power demand in 2025, highlighting the evolution of the country's generation mix as India aims to provide round the clock electricity to all households and industries and fuel its economic growth. The trend also underscores the weakness in coal consumption at utilities, one of the largest consumers of domestic and imported coal, impacting India's overall plans to boost local coal output. The country, one of the world's largest coal producers and the second-largest importer after China, produced 1.04bn t of coal in 2025, little changed from a year earlier, while supplies to utilities fell by 1.8pc from a year earlier to 816.25mn t, according to data from India's coal ministry. India pegs coal demand to rise to 1.5bn t/yr by 2030, although the drop in coal burn at power plants could prompt a review of the estimates given that non-coal generation capacity has dwarfed that of coal and overall coal supplies from the largest coal producer state-owned Coal India has fallen steadily. Imports have also declined largely been due to weak demand because the country is currently grappling with high domestic coal inventories. India imported 160.32mn t of thermal coal in 2025, down by 2.2pc from a year earlier, data from analytics firm Kpler show, marking the second straight year of declines. Seaborne coal suppliers are recalibrating their sales strategies because domestic surplus has weighed on demand from China and India, while Indonesia — the world's largest coal exporter — is undertaking policy tweaks to tighten supplies . "Uncertainty over supply and demand is dominating the market right now," said a Singapore-based coal trader. "No one knows when balance will return." The weak fundamentals have weighed on the market. Argus assessed the widely traded GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal for Supramax vessels at $44.99/t fob Kalimantan on 24 December 2025 — the last assessment of the year. This was down by 71pc from its all-time high of $154.21/t in October 2021. Prices hit a more than four-year low of $39.40/t in June 2025 and have since hovered in a narrow range that some producers said barely covers costs. The slowdown in demand is weighing on overall seaborne market dynamics. India is sitting on a huge pile of domestic coal, partly denting the demand fundamentals for the seaborne market. Sellers of Indonesian coal, which accounts for bulk of Indian imports, also said competition is heating up in growth centres of southeast Asia because suppliers from all origins are exploring alternative markets. Indonesian supplies to southeast Asia likely surpassed exports volume to India for the second straight year in 2025, underscoring the changing trade flows. The restart of an imported coal-fired power plant on India's west coast could support the recovery in India's demand for seaborne coal, another trader said, but overall power sector demand remains subdued and similar utilities that run on seaborne coal are exploring the possibility of raising the share of domestic coal in their blend. Some suppliers are focusing on tenders and enquiries from industrial coal consumers, expecting demand from industries such as cement and steel to continue in line with economic growth. Generation mix Generation from renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and smaller hydroelectric projects rose in 2025, and output from large hydropower projects as well as nuclear power plants also increased. The prolonged monsoon period last year supported an increase in hydropower generation and also capped power demand for cooling. Renewable energy generation rose by 22pc from a year earlier to 270TWh in 2025, CREA said in its latest report, while overall generation from all sources rose by 1pc on the year to 1,844TWh. The pace of growth in overall generation has moderated over the last few years. Generation rose by 11pc and 6pc on the year in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Coal-power has declined but it still accounts for about 70pc of India's generation mix, and India would continue to be a dominant consumer of domestic as well as imported coal, market participants said. "Coal will remain an indispensable pillar of India's energy security, along with steady advances in its clean energy transition," the coal ministry said. Coal provides reliable baseload power and supports critical industries, and plays a vital role in sustained economic growth, it added. But the country may not require excess coal-fired capacity if it hits its target of more than doubling the renewable power generation capacity to 500GW by 2030, CREA said. "India's power-sector challenge is no longer one of capacity adequacy, but of system flexibility," Manoj Kumar, analyst at CREA, said, adding that an increase in generation from non-coal sources could lead to lower utilisation of coal-power plants while also raising the risk of stressing thermal assets. By Saurabh Chaturvedi India's generation mix (TWh) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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