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Venezuela crude rebound could erode Mexico share: IMEF
Venezuela crude rebound could erode Mexico share: IMEF
Mexico City, 22 January (Argus) — A potential overhaul of Venezuela's crude sector and a subsequent rapid recovery of its export capacity could deepen Mexico's loss of market share and weigh on the country's economic growth in 2026, the Mexican institute of finance executives (IMEF) said. Mexico's GDP is expected to grow by 1.3pc in 2026, according to estimates, but several risks could hamper this growth, including a shift in crude flows if Venezuela attracts fresh investment for its oil sector. Venezuela could draw capital back to its upstream sector if political stability improves and operators gain stable property rights, IMEF president Gabriela Gutierrez said. "Venezuela could become more attractive for oil investment than Mexico, which has already seen crude producers reduce their interest," she said. Mexico outpaces Venezuela in crude production, with Pemex and a slew of smaller private-sector companies producing about 1.6mn b/d in 2025. State-owned Pemex — Mexico's only company allowed to export crude — exported about 600,000 b/d from January-November 2025, according to the latest company data. Venezuela's crude output was 934,000 b/d in November, according to an average of Opec secondary sources including Argus . Production has fallen from more than 3mn b/d in the early 2000s, largely because of the impact of falling investment and US sanctions. Chevron, the second-biggest US oil producer, operates in Venezuela with state-owned PdV under a special waiver from US sanctions and imported about 120,000 b/d of crude from Venezuela to the US in December, according to data from Kpler ship tracking. Venezuela has been increasing exports as US policy shifts have allowed more crude to enter the market. Both countries would need to invest tens of billions of dollars to raise output significantly, and the process to reap the rewards would take five to 10 years, according to IMEF's Gutierrez. Mexico faces uncertainty over how it will finance new upstream spending, as the government has limited room to support heavily indebted Pemex. Oil companies have also flagged risks when considering investment in Venezuela, pointing out the unstable political environment in the country. A meaningful turnaround will demand costly repairs to basic energy infrastructure covering everything from pipelines to power supplies, as well as access to the latest equipment and a skilled labor force that is ready to work. US producers will also need clarity around legal frameworks regarding contracts, as well as sharply higher oil prices to justify the massive investments needed. Venezuela's crude reserves are a major differentiator. Mexico holds around 7.5bn bl of proven reserves, while Venezuela reports more than 300bn bl. Even conservative specialist estimates place Venezuelan reserves at over 10 times larger than Mexico's estimated reserves, Gutierrez said. Mexico's decision to reduce crude exports and focus on refining has cost the country market share, IMEF's economic studies chair Victor Herrera said. "We export less every year, while Venezuela is doing everything possible to export more", he added, noting that directing crude to national refining has generated losses, worsening Pemex's financial position. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's Santos loads first Barossa LNG cargo
Australia's Santos loads first Barossa LNG cargo
Sydney, 22 January (Argus) — Australian independent Santos is loading the first cargo in over two years from its 3.7mn t/yr Darwin LNG (DLNG) facility in Australia, the firm said today. DLNG's first cargo using Barossa gas has been sold and will be delivered to Japan's Sakai terminal. DLNG last loaded a cargo in December 2023, using Bayu-Undan feedstock gas. Output Santos' total output was 22.3mn bl of oil equivalent (boe) in October-December 2025, up from 21.5mn boe a year earlier. But the total 2025 production of 87.7mn boe missed its 89mn-91mn boe guidance, which was revised in October due to delays at Barossa . The firm reported a 10pc fall on the year in Cooper basin oil and gas output in 2025. The firm returned 91 wells to production in October–December 2025 and output has now recovered to levels before widespread flooding occurred in April-June, it said. Santos expects Barossa and Pikka to contribute to a 25-30pc rise in output based on 2024 levels by 2027, and has guided annual production for 2026 at 101mn-111mn boe on the back of these projects coming on line. The BW Opal floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel at Barossa field in the Timor Sea is producing at 450mn ft³/d (12.7mn m³/d), Santos reported, or 75pc of capacity. The 80,000 b/d Pikka oil field located in Alaska's North Slope region is 98pc complete and is expected on line in late in the January-March 2026 quarter and will reach full capacity in mid-2026. Output from the ExxonMobil-operated 6.9mn t/yr PNG LNG in Papua New Guinea was 7pc higher on the year in 2025. The production volume of 8.64mn t was also above the 8.43mn t shipped in 2023. Full-year unit production costs were under $7/boe, excluding Bayu-Undan volumes, and will be $6.95-$7.45/boe in 2026, Santos said. The 1.7mn t/yr Moomba carbon capture and storage (CCS) project stored 234,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in October-December 2025. Santos 66.6pc share accounted for 156,000t in the fourth quarter and 820,000t CO2e in 2025, Moomba's first year of operations. Moomba received 907,872 ACCUs in the quarter, covering project commencement in September 2024 to June 2025. The project has stored 1.5mn t of CO2e since its start-up. The proposed Bayu-Undan CCS requires co-operation with the government of East Timor. Santos has continued to engage with the government to reach a final investment decision. The project could store emissions from the CO2-heavy Barossa field. By Tom Major Santos results Oct-Dec '25 Jul-Sep '25 Oct-Dec '24 2025 2024 y-o-y % ± q-o-q % ± YTD % ± Volumes ('000 t) GLNG (100pc) 1,643 1,314 1,791 6,022 6,078 -8 -25 -1 Darwin LNG (100pc) 0 0 0 0 0 n/a n/a n/a PNG LNG (100pc) 2,160 2,187 2,108 8,635 8,055 2 -1 7 Santos' equity share of LNG sales 1,436 1,187 1,320 5,252 5,084 9 21 3 Financial LNG sales revenue ($mn) 780 689 858 3,067 3,287 -9 13 -7 Total sales revenue ($mn) 1,230 1,129 1,401 4,939 5,381 -12 9 -8 LNG average realised price ($/mn Btu) 10.33 11.05 12.39 11.12 12.31 -17 -7 -10 Oil price ($/bl) 66.66 71.30 79.09 73.05 84.76 -16 -7 -14 — Santos Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Compliance with US demands won’t buy safety: Carney
Compliance with US demands won’t buy safety: Carney
Calgary, 21 January (Argus) — In a speech widely seen as a rebuke of President Donald Trump's aggressive global trade and military policy, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney called on other smaller countries to cooperate with one another rather than give in to coercion. "Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited," Carney told world leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday. Individual countries like Canada and European nations — which Carney referred to as "middle powers" — lack the economic heft to defy these larger powers. "The middle powers must act together, because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu," he said. Carney did not mention Trump or the US by name in his speech, but the meaning was clear in the European setting amid Trump's repeated threats of annexing Denmark's Greenland territory. "We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition," said Carney, repeating language he has often used domestically. Canada was among the first countries to be targeted by US tariffs last year and a pattern of on-again, off-again trade talks have persisted between the two long-time trading partners. Carney has vowed to double Canada's non-US exports to pivot away from its neighbor, which includes striking a deal in China last week and calling that country "more predictable". Now with most countries threatened by US tariffs, and some threatened by annexation, including Canada, Carney is calling on others to resist the temptation to capitulate and instead draw a line in the sand. "There is a strong tendency for countries to go along to get along, to accommodate, to avoid trouble, to hope that compliance will buy safety. Well, it won't," said Carney. Trump shot back at Carney during his own Davos address on Wednesday. "I watched your prime minister yesterday, he wasn't so grateful," Trump said. "But they should be grateful to us, Canada. Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements." Trump on Wednesday walked back plans to impose a 10pc tariff on imports from the UK and seven EU members over their position on US ownership of Greenland, citing a "framework" of a future deal being achieved. Carney has hit back at the US with counter tariffs of its own, but has also relented at times. Canada in June 2025 rescinded a digital sales tax that would have collected revenue from the US' largest tech companies, after US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick said the tax could have been a deal breaker in trade negotiations. That show of good faith — which did not appear to be reciprocated — was criticized within Canada as being contrary to Carney's repeated "elbows up" mantra in the face of Trump's threats. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump withdraws EU, UK tariff threat
Trump withdraws EU, UK tariff threat
Washington, 21 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump said Wednesday he will not proceed with plans to impose a 10pc tariff on imports from the UK and seven EU members over their position on US ownership of Greenland, averting a possible tariff war with Europe. Trump, writing via his social media platform, explained his decision by having reached the "framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region." Trump is in Davos, Switzerland, where he met with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte and delivered a rambling speech to explain his motivation for trying to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump and the White House did not provide details of a possible deal. Trump on 17 January threatened to impose an additional 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. Those countries pushed back on his Greenland plans and sent a military mission to the Arctic island to examine its security needs. Trump also said he tasked vice president JD Vance, secretary of state Marco Rubio and special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff with negotiating the placement of the so-called Golden Dome missile defense network in Greenland. Trump's threats to annex Greenland and to impose tariffs on European countries that pushed back against his plans sent US stock and financial markets lower on Tuesday, out of concern that a tariff war may erupt between the US and the EU. The European parliament was preparing to freeze work on implementing laws for the EU-US trade deal agreed to last summer. Stock and financial markets bounced back after Trump earlier Wednesday appeared to have ruled out the use of military force to take over Greenland, with further gains after he said he would not proceed with tariffs. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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