Argus Crude and Refined Products Outlook
Overview
Stay ahead of the curve with the Argus Crude and Refined Products Outlook service — a monthly service that forecasts prices for key crude grades, regional benchmarks, and oil products up to 36 months into the future. With expert analysis of key trends in each market, the Argus Crude and Refined Products Outlook service serves as your independent source of intelligence to aid in planning and decision-making.
Argus Consulting Services’ Crude and Refined Products Outlook is a monthly report scheduled for release on the first Friday of every calendar month. The aim of the report is to provide a short-term forward view of pricing developments in international crude and refined products markets.
Forecasts are provided as both a flat price and as a differential to the relevant benchmark for 21 crudes. Additionally, forecasts are offered for all main refined products (naphtha, gasoline, diesel/gasoil, jet- kerosene, VLSFO, HSFO) in the four key refining regions (northwest Europe, Mediterranean, US Gulf Coast, and Singapore), including both the flat price and the crack spreads to the relevant crude benchmark.
The price forecast for the key marker crude North Sea Dated is generated using an independent assessment of global supply, demand, and stocks. This forecast of global supply-demand is utilised in a pricing model to help generate the North Sea Dated crude price forecast. Forecasts of the secondary crude markers are created by examining breakeven pricing against the marker crudes using a marginal FCC refining configuration.
FCC yields are used in the valuation process as they are classified as the marginal refinery configuration.
When assessing crude, the intrinsic value of any given grade can differ significantly between refineries based on their configuration. A configuration that is too complex may result in overvaluing heavy sour crude due to the high conversion rate, while a yield that is too simple may undervalue the crude. The marginal refinery configuration must be applied to obtain the most representative yield when valuing crude.
The marginal refining configuration used to derive the yield in all key refining regions is a Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) refinery. The market setting configuration is the type of capacity needed to meet the demand for refining.
Key features
Crude oil forecasts
Two-year price forecast for more than regional crude benchmarks, grades and differentials, including WTI Midland and WTI Houston.
Refined products forecasts
Two-year price forecasts for crack spreads in the key refining regions of northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, US Gulf coast and Singapore.
Refining margins
Two-year forecast of regional refining margins for northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, US Gulf coast and Singapore.
Trade and trend summaries
By region, grade and product, our analysis gives context to the rapidly changing landscape in the global oil market.
Access to analysts
If there is something you do not understand, our experts will help investigate the data and find the answers you need.
Downloadable datasets
Access to all of the latest data from our client portal in excel format.
Customers that benefit
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Oil majors
Use our unbiased price information and analysis to inform their exploration and production activities and investment decisions.
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Refiners
Can prepare for fluctuations in the price of various crude grades to make the best decisions about refinery input.
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Governmental agencies
Rely on our outlooks as a key part of a holistic view of markets.
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Trading firms
Use the price forecasts and analysis to enhance planning and decision making.
Product specifications
Stay ahead of the curve with the Argus Crude and Refined Products Outlook, published monthly and forecasting a range of regional crude and refined oil products prices up to 24 months into the future.
Our people are recognised industry experts
Data alone — no matter how accurate — is not sufficient. Our strengths lie with our people — a team that combines extensive experience in strategic consulting with commodity market expertise.
Our people are experts, close to the market and working collaboratively with clients. Dedicated and committed to your needs, we pride ourselves on being accessible, responsive and connected to the markets.
Key price assessments
Argus prices are recognised by the market as trusted and reliable indicators of the real market value. Explore some of our most widely used and relevant price assessments.
