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India's steel expansion to drive coking coal demand
India's steel expansion to drive coking coal demand
Mumbai, 22 January (Argus) — As India's steel production capacity increases, demand for coking coal is expected to remain strong, reinforcing the country's position as the world's fastest-growing importer of seaborne coking coal. India is the world's second largest crude steel producer with output over January-November 2025 totalling 150.1mn t, the latest data from Worldsteel Association show. Major Indian steel producers have registered steady or even record output in the third quarter of the April 2025- March 2026 fiscal year, driven by firm domestic steel demand. India aims to double its steel production to 300mn t/yr by 2030, and reach 500 mn t/yr by 2047, reinforcing its position as a major seaborne coking coal buyer. Alongside its ambitious expansion initiatives, India has extended safeguard duties on specific flat-steel products for three years to protect the domestic industry from lower-priced imports. These protective measures are designed to preserve India's steelmaking capacity, reducing dependence on imported semi-finished products for further processing. Met coal prices, imports up As steel production increases in India, both the demand for and prices of steel feedstocks such as metallurgical coal have also steadily climbed. On pricing, recent outages and force majeure declarations in Australia because of heavy rain pushed the Australian premium low-volatile (PLV) hard coking coal price to a 17-month high of $240.55/t fob on 21 January. Reflecting firm demand, metallurgical coal imports into India rose sharply in 2025 with volumes rising by 32pc on the year to 73.53mn t, data from shipbroker Interocean show. For December, imports climbed by 97pc on the year to 7.32mn t. This trend is continuing in 2026, with Indian steelmakers seeking a total of around 75,000–100,000t of metallurgical coal via tenders as of 21 January. Australia remained India's top supplier, with December shipments rising by nearly 40pc on the year to 3.29mn t. Inflows from the US, Mozambique and Russia have also gone up. Higher steel margins and restocking needs encouraged mills to secure volumes despite the elevated prices, market participants said. India's coking coal imports are projected to stay strong, with inflows of about 81.6mn t in 2026 and 86.5mn t in 2027, according to a report by Argus consulting services. The anti-dumping policy on low-ash metallurgical coke from major suppliers is expected to have a slightly positive effect on imports for six months, it added. Coal demand rides on policy tailwind Steel prices in India have been on an uptrend as the market rebounds on the back of improving macroeconomic conditions and robust demand. Traders and mills are also citing the recent introduction of safeguard measures as a key driver, as these protections are expected to boost domestic steel consumption. The combined effect of firmer demand expectations and policy support has helped lift sentiment, with Indian buyers showing greater willingness to restock at higher levels, a trader said. Steelmakers could also be nudged towards higher domestic coke production as coke imports could be curtailed with the implementation of anti-dumping duties , spurring demand for premium hard coking coal imports for blending, particularly Australian material, Argus consulting services said. India to stay a key buyer Looking ahead, India is expected to remain a key driver of coking coal demand, as ongoing steel production growth supports import needs. "India has the biggest role to play given the fact that it is going to be the largest sea borne customer in all the years to come unless China starts buying [more meaningfully]," an India-based trader said. Import requirements are likely to rise substantially — potentially by 100% — as capacity expansions in the steel sector are rolled out, he added. India is set to add more blast furnaces over the coming years as steelmakers push ahead with capacity expansion and each new blast furnace will raise metallurgical coal demand, another trader said. By Romil Sethi and Lisa Cheng India metallurgical coal imports ('000 t) Origin Dec'25 Dec'24 ± % Jan-Dec'25 Jan-Dec'24 ± % Coking coal Australia 3,292 2,355 40 35,403 30,825 15 US 1,218 433 181 9,675 9,118 6 Mozambique 712 172 314 5,524 3,856 43 Indonesia 333 55 506 3,459 2,109 64 Russia 1,159 453 155 12,411 6,725 85 Others 573 82 598 5,438 869 526 Total 7,323 3,714 97 73,533 55,917 32 Met coke Indonesia 94 452 -79 961 2,521 -62 China 0 13 -100 308 825 -63 Poland 0 0 n/a 486 613 -21 Colombia 33 17 93 353 241 46 Total 171 586 -71 2,762 5,052 -45 PCI Australia 284 668 -57 2,392 5,780 -59 Russia 640 1,255 -49 7,206 11,651 -38 Total 924 2,042 -55 10,814 17,558 -38 Source: Interocean *Note: Total includes additional small values excluded from individual breakdown, so component numbers may not sum to total India steel expansion to drive coking coal demand [$/t] Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Jogmec joins Canadian non-ferrous metals exploration
Jogmec joins Canadian non-ferrous metals exploration
Tokyo, 22 January (Argus) — Japanese state-owned energy agency Jogmec will join Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals and Japanese trading house Marubeni on a non-ferrous metals exploration project in Manitoba, Canada, the agency said today. Jogmec signed an agreement with project operator Hudbay and Marubeni in December 2025 to participate in the non-ferrous metal exploration in Flin Flon, Manitoba. Jogmec will pay C$6mn ($4.3mn) for the exploration over three years over 2026-28. Jogmec will then acquire an option to obtain a 10pc stake in the mining area and form a joint venture with Hudbay and Marubeni, once it completes the payment. The mining area in Flin Flon consists of multiple sections totalling 5,000 hectares (50km²). It potentially has new mineral deposits such as copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver. Jogmec plans to co-operate with Hudbay and Marubeni to conduct geological and drilling surveys to find new non-ferrous metal deposits. Jogmec and Marubeni expect demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly for copper, to increase further because of accelerating electrification, an increase in electric vehicles, the expansion of renewable power generation and a rise in data centres for artificial intelligence. Jogmec is concerned about a possible shortage of copper supplies to Japan. Jogmec, Hudbay and Marubeni aim to conduct research on the underground structure and evaluate metal quality in 2026. Marubeni declined to disclose detailed timelines for the subsequent years. Marubeni and Hudbay began their joint exploration in Flin Flon in 2024. Marubeni also agreed with Hudbay to pay C$12mn over five years, over 2024-28, for an option to own a 20pc stake in the project. Jogmec has attempted to improve Japan's supply security of non-ferrous metals. The agency has also explored an awaruite nickel mine in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, with Canadian mining firm FPX Nickel. By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
London, 21 January (Argus) — Inconsistent policies and political turmoil have hampered western progress on electric vehicles (EVs), while China's longer-term stable approach has benefited industry winners such as BYD, speakers at a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel in Davos, Switzerland, said on Tuesday. China's lead in EVs is less about a single technological breakthrough and more about policy consistency. That was the clear message from executives and policymakers at the WEF panel on the global EV race, where China's long-term industrial alignment was repeatedly contrasted with stop-start policymaking in the US and Europe. Speaking early in the discussion, BYD executive vice-president Stella Li said China's EV successes "start from the government policy", arguing that Beijing's approach has been defined by consistency rather than constant revision. "In the past 20 years they never changed, but some countries went back and forth, and this will confuse manufacturing," Li said. "Once the government gives a very clear line, then manufacturing goes to work on the competition." This clarity, she argued, allowed companies to commit capital, concentrate on research and development and scale production without hedging against political reversals, something she suggested remains a structural disadvantage for western automakers. Industrial reality versus political instability Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, whose state accounts for more than a fifth of US car production, echoed this assessment from a US perspective, saying policy uncertainty has slowed decision-making across the industry. "The back and forth policies at the national level have made it more difficult for industry to throw all in," Whitmer said, adding that long-term investments were increasingly being delayed. "Chaos is really bad for business." The result, she added, is that manufacturers are forced to pursue multiple drivetrain strategies simultaneously, rather than committing fully to electrification. Former General Motors chief economist Elaine Buckberg said that a disconnect between political timeframes and industrial reality is critical. Automakers, she noted, plan vehicles years in advance, while democracy can change government policy over smaller time periods. "The typical planning process is five years before a vehicle comes into market, and you're planning to keep it there for six years," Buckberg said. "Keeping those incentives stable is really powerful." Alternatively, shifting incentives and short-term subsidies can distort demand. Li warned that poorly designed support schemes risk delaying purchases altogether. "Sometimes subsidies are more like a drug," she said. "Consumers just wait and the market stops. That is not sustainable." As competition between the US, China and Europe intensifies, the panel's message was that in the EV race, consistency may matter more than speed. By Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australian premium coking coal price hits 17-month high
Australian premium coking coal price hits 17-month high
Singapore, 21 January (Argus) — The first-tier Australian seaborne premium hard coking coal price jumped to a 17-month high in January on the back of persistent supply restraints from Australia and steady demand from India. Argus ' month-to-date assessment for Australian premium low-volatile (PLV) hard coking coal rose to $227.38/t fob Australia in January 2026, up by $15.25/t from the full-month average in December 2025. This marks the highest level since July 2024, when the Argus monthly PLV HCC price was $236.53/t. The boost in prices is mostly supply-driven, because ongoing heavy rains and flooding have continued to disrupt mining operations across key producing regions, notably Queensland. Several Australian producers declared force majeure on the back of adverse weather and operational issues. AMCI, Stanmore and GM3 declared force majeure on shipments last week, while Glencore and Coronado are also facing weather and safety-related production constraints. Vessel congestion at Australian coal ports also intensified significantly. Queues increased to 108 vessels on 20 January, a trader said. The buildup comes on the back of heavy rains and flooding that disrupted port and mining activities, especially in Queensland. The expanding backlog has left several cargoes scheduled for December 2025-loading still waiting to dock, market sources said. The spot market could continue to remain under pressure in the coming weeks until supply normalises, some market participants said. The cyclone season in Australia normally lasts until February, and supply should stabilise by March, a trader said. Demand from key buyer India stands at around one Panamax vessel, at the time of writing. Steel prices in India have been on an uptrend as the market rebounds on the back of improving macroeconomic conditions and stronger demand. The recent introduction of safeguard measures are also a key driver, traders and mills said, because these protections are expected to boost domestic steel consumption by limiting imports and supporting local producers. The combined effect of stronger demand expectations and policy support has helped boost market sentiment, and buyers are showing greater willingness to restock at higher levels, a trader said. But Chinese buyers remain largely absent from the seaborne Australian premium hard coking coal market. Australian PLV cargoes are not workable in China at current elevated levels, several market participants said. End-users have continued to rely on portside inventories, domestic supply and Mongolian imports to meet their needs for raw materials. Chinese steelmakers have shown limited willingness to purchase seaborne premium cargoes given the rally in fob Australia prices, several traders said, citing both cost concerns and diverse alternatives. By Lisa Cheng and Romil Sethi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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