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India begins receiving first US LPG term supplies
India begins receiving first US LPG term supplies
The increased US shipments are expected to meet 10pc of India's import needs, eating into the Mideast Gulf's traditional dominance, writes Rituparna Ghosh Mumbai, 20 January (Argus) — India's state-controlled refiners have begun receiving the first term supplies of US LPG this month under the contracts signed in November last year following trade negotiations between the two countries and as India looks to reduce its dependency on imports from the Middle East. India's HPCL received a 23,000t evenly split propane-butane cargo on board the VLGC BW Var at the Vishakhapatnam refinery on 19 January, having been shipped by US refiner and midstream firm Phillips 66 from the company's Freeport terminal on the US Gulf coast on 8 December. This was preceded by India's IOC receiving a similar 22,100t shipment on the VLGC Hellas Hercules at Ennore on 17 January, from Chevron through midstream operator Targa's Houston terminal on 9 December, ship tracking data from Kpler show. These imports are part of the 337,000t of US LPG that India is forecast to receive this month, compared with zero a year earlier, Kpler data show. IOC, HPCL and peer BPCL are contracted to receive 2.2mn t of US LPG combined over the course of 2026 from Phillips 66, Chevron and TotalEnergies, which will meet around 10pc of India's import needs. India received nearly 1.6mn t of LPG from the US last year, around 13 times higher than its intake in 2024, largely owing to redirected US trade following Beijing's introduction of a 10pc tariff on US goods. This lifted the US' share of India's import market to 6.7pc, with India bringing in a record high 23mn t in 2025, while supplies from the Middle East still dominated but dropped to a 92pc share from 99pc in 2024, Kpler data show. Imports from the Middle East are forecast to exceed 2mn t in January, up from 1.78mn t a year earlier. The pipes are calling Indian LPG importers have been bringing in more supply since December in anticipation of the commissioning of the 2,800km Kandla-Gorakhpur LPG pipeline . The line is reportedly already operating in Gujarat state — before it passes through Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh — and the official commissioning could happen in late February once LPG reaches Gorakhpur, according to sources. Indian LPG importers continue to eye cargoes on the spot market. HPCL secured 2-3 cargoes for delivery until March and issued another tender to buy one cargo for delivery over February-April. Tight prompt spot cargo availability has lifted fob Mideast Gulf prices, with traders paying up to $50/t above state-controlled Saudi Aramco's January contract price (CP) compared with premiums of $25-30/t at the start of the January trading period. Premiums to February CP paper for February deliveries were assessed at $29/t. India's LPG demand exceeded 3mn t for the first time in December, lifting consumption by 7pc on the year to 33.1mn t over the course of 2025, the latest oil ministry data show. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Venezuelan crude muddies Canadian butane price outlook
Venezuelan crude muddies Canadian butane price outlook
An influx of Venezuelan oil could weigh on Canadian prices as the country sits on ample stocks of butane, writes Dennis Kovtun Calgary, 20 January (Argus) — The uncertain outlook for western Canadian butane prices at the Edmonton hub this year after a weak 2025 is being further clouded by recent events in Venezuela that could result in more of its heavy crude hitting the global market. Edmonton butane prices averaged 67.60¢/USG last year, down from 82.26¢/USG in 2024 and compared with a five-year average of 88.25¢/USG. The outright drop came as the price declined as a percentage of the calendar month average of Nymex WTI crude (CMA WTI) to 43.7pc from 46.1pc in 2024. Growing supplies pressured values, with Canadian butane production rising to 216,200 b/d (7.3mn t/yr) in January-October compared with 203,400 b/d over the whole of 2024, data from Statistics Canada show. Winter gasoline demand during the fourth quarter was also weaker. This meant butane inventories at Edmonton climbed above levels a year earlier in every month from May 2025, averaging 3.3mn bl (306,000t) in 2025 compared with 2.7mn bl in 2024, data from energy regulator the CER show. Scant indications have emerged on the market this year to suggest Edmonton butane prices are about to recover. The price averaged 61.16¢/USG, or 44.6pc of CMA WTI, over 2-12 January, but prices have fallen to 57.19¢/USG from 68.25¢/USG, and to 41.5pc from 50pc, over the first two weeks of the month. Butane exports are likely to have increased in 2025. Canada shipped an average 59,400 b/d by pipeline, rail and truck to the US over January-October, up from 56,100 b/d for the whole of 2024 and also higher than the five-year average of 52,300 b/d, the latest CER data show — the country currently exports predominantly propane from its seaborne terminals on the Pacific coast. But rising butane exports could not provide enough of a relief valve to offset climbing stocks. The usual seasonal winter increase in butane prices has also not materialised, with the Edmonton value averaging 66.53¢/USG, or 46.8pc of CMA WTI, in the fourth quarter, down from 91.75¢/USG, or 54.5pc, a year earlier. And as the market enters 2026, it is being confronted by geopolitical volatility that is having complex effects on prices. This especially applies to one type of butane consumption in western Canada — as a diluent for heavy crude produced from the country's oil sands. It is reasonable to expect Canadian oil takeaway capacity to rise by 270,000 b/d by 2030, but the potential of more Venezuelan oil hitting the world markets after the US captured President Nicolas Maduro makes more optimistic scenarios of it rising by as much as 820,000 b/d less likely, bank TD Securities analyst Menno Hulshof says. "When you think about consumption of diluent or condensate or butane — maybe that mutes things a little bit there as well," he says. Heavy toll At the same time, more Venezuelan crude production could theoretically provide tailwinds for the butane price should the US begin to export more condensate to Venezuela to be used as diluent for its heavy crude. This would make US condensate more expensive for Canadian importers using it as diluent. Butane could become more attractive, leading to modest growth in buying interest, Hulshof says — provided producers are able to swap condensate with butane. But the outlook on the heavy crude market has become more bearish owing to the possibility of Venezuelan crude playing a larger role and the still-limited egress for Canadian bitumen. Canadian crude and condensate output is forecast to rise to a record 4.85mn b/d in 2026, according to Argus Consulting, but this is only an increase of 1.7pc . Predicting diluent trends, including use of butane, is currently very difficult, Hulshof says. Edmonton price trends will also be significantly influenced by Mont Belvieu EPC butane assessments on the US Gulf coast. Edmonton values typically track Mont Belvieu levels, which have traded lower than in previous years so far this winter as a result of weaker gasoline blending demand and depressed gasoline futures. Edmonton butane price, ratio to crude Edmonton vs Mont Belvieu butane Western Canadian butane stocks Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
London, 19 January (Argus) — The IMF has upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 but warned an escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe is a "major risk." US president Donald Trump on 17 January threatened tariffs on several European countries in a bid to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. This has raised concerns about a potential trade war between Europe and the US. "If we were to enter a phase in which there would be escalation and tit-for-tat policies… that would certainly have even more of an adverse effect on the economy, both through direct channels, but also through confidence, investment, and potentially through a repricing by [financial] markets," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at the launch of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) today. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3pc, citing improvements in the US and China, and kept its projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.2pc. It puts 2025 economic growth at 3.3pc, from a previous 3.2pc. IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The IMF has repeatedly upgraded its growth projections since April 2025 and now sees 2025 and 2026 growth higher than when US-led tariff disruptions started in early 2025. The outlook's economic assumptions are current as of 31 December so do not take into account the US' latest tariff threat against European countries. It assumes an effective tariff rate of 18.5pc for US imports from the rest of the world. Any change to this would be a major risk," Gourinchas said. "This is something that could materially impact growth if we have higher levels of tariffs, if we have higher levels of geopolitical tension." The IMF said the US-led investment boom in AI and strong fiscal stimulus in China and Germany was offsetting economic losses associated with higher tariffs. But Gourinchas warned that debt financing in the AI sector was becoming more prevalent, and this could "amplify shocks if returns failed to materialise." He said any correction in AI stock market valuations would have far reaching negative effects or the global economy. The IMF said fiscal discipline is weakening across the globe, particularly in advanced economies. "The risk here [is] that countries will be unable to face the significant challenges ahead in terms of population aging, climate transition, national security or ability to support the economy, should a large shock occur," Gourinchas said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Houston, 17 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven key members of the EU, citing their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden would be subject to a 10pc tariff from 1 February, rising to a 25pc tariff from 1 June, Trump announced via his social media platform. The tariff would remain in place until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland", Trump said. Trump has stepped up discussion of taking over Greenland — a self-governing island under Denmark's control — following a US special forces raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Denmark and Greenland have rejected US overtures to buy the island, as well as Trump's threat to take over the island by force. Trump is citing Greenland's alleged lack of military protection as the latest justification for his threats. He has denigrated Denmark's commitment to the island's defense against alleged threats from Russia and China. "They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently," Trump said on Saturday. Denmark's foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who traveled to Washington on 14 January to meet Trump administration officials, pushed back against that accusation. "Denmark has already stepped up our own contribution by committing additional funds for military capabilities — not [dogsleds], but ships, drones, fighter jets," Rasmussen said. The countries threatened with new tariffs by Trump joined Denmark to dispatch troops and military experts to Greenland on a mission to assess the island's security needs. Trump on Saturday said that the reconnaissance mission "journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown." EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and called for dialogue, but they omitted mention of possible retaliation if Trump makes good on his threat to impose new tariffs. "Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in response to Trump's post. "Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty." "Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is completely wrong," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday. "We will of course be pursuing this directly with the US administration." US imports from the UK already are subject to a 10pc import tariff, and imports from the EU face a 15pc tariff. While Trump is threatening tariffs against seven out of 27 EU members, the bloc collectively negotiates trade matters and sets tariffs. Trump is scheduled to attend the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on 21-22 January. A bipartisan delegation of 11 US senators and members of the House of Representatives traveled to Copenhagen on 16 January to express support for Denmark's government and push back against Trump's designs on Greenland. "There is no need, or desire, for a costly acquisition or hostile military takeover of Greenland when our Danish and Greenlandic allies are eager to work with us on Arctic security, critical minerals and other priorities under the framework of long-standing treaties," said US senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tills (R-North Carolina), who were part of the congressional delegation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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