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India becomes net steel exporter but outlook uncertain
India becomes net steel exporter but outlook uncertain
Mumbai, 23 April (Argus) — India transitioned to a net exporter of finished steel in the April 2025-March 2026 fiscal year after two consecutive years as a net importer. But trade barriers in Europe and geopolitical tensions complicate the export outlook this year. Finished steel exports rose by 36pc year on year to 6.6mn t in 2025-26, exceeding imports by 78,000t, according to provisional data from the steel ministry's joint plant committee (JPC). The increase was driven by robust demand from Europe in the second half of 2025, as buyers stockpiled ahead of key trade policy changes in 2026. Italy was India's largest export market, with shipments up by 51pc year on year to 1.07mn t in the fiscal year. Italy, Belgium and Spain together accounted for 34pc of India's total finished steel exports during the period. Indian finished steel shipments to Vietnam also surged, supported by anti-dumping measures and an anti-circumvention probe into Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC). Exports to Vietnam rose from about 11,000t in the previous fiscal year to 772,300t, making the southeast Asian country India's second-largest export market in the fiscal year ended March 2026. But Indian steel exports face fresh headwinds this year, particularly in Europe, where the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and impending safeguard quota revisions have made buyers more cautious. Some export opportunities have surfaced, but these are overshadowed by risks. EU quota, Iran war limit exports Indian flat steel volumes to Europe are expected to decline from July, as quotas will likely be halved and out-of-quota duties doubled to 50pc, market participants said. India quickly exhausted its January-March and April-June HRC quotas after a surge in shipments to Europe over December-January. Importing Indian HRC has become much riskier because of lower quota availability and higher duties from the next quarter. If India's HRC quota is breached again, the pro-rated duty is likely to rise from 8-9pc at present to 15-20pc from July, an international steel trader said. Combined with CBAM charges and other costs, this will make Indian material less attractive to buyers unless EU local prices rise sharply, the trader added. The Argus daily Italian HRC index rose by 10pc from end-December to €694.25/t ($812/t) ex-works on 22 April. Indian HRC offers were last heard at $705–710/t cfr EU for May and June shipments. The Iran war forced Indian mills to suspend offers to the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region and postpone shipments for earlier bookings. The strait of Hormuz has remained effectively closed since the conflict began at the end of February, blocking India's access to markets such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. A sharp increase in ocean freight rates and vessel shortages resulting from the war have also led some major Indian mills to scale back exports and focus on the domestic market. Opportunities tempered by uncertainty There are early signs of emerging opportunities in an otherwise challenging export environment. Indian cold-rolled coil (CRC) exports could increase after the European Commission said it would not impose provisional duties on imports under investigation. Sourcing CRC locally is currently difficult in Europe, an EU-based trader said. Other market sources said that European demand for Indian CRC may rise in the short term, but quota reductions will ultimately impede sales from July. Market participants also expect a surge in demand from the Middle East due to post-war reconstruction activity. But with no clear resolution in sight to the conflict, it is difficult to assess when the GCC market will reopen for Indian exports. Vietnam also offers an opportunity for Indian mills to offload surplus volumes, particularly from June, when plants resume full production after maintenance and domestic demand eases during the monsoon. Imported coil prices in Vietnam reached an over two-year high this week, making the market more attractive for Indian sellers than earlier in the year. By Amruta Khandekar Indian finished steel exports 000t Destination country FY2025-26 FY2024-25 Italy 1,068.8 707.8 Vietnam 772.3 10.6 Belgium 720.8 544.1 UAE 486.0 488.8 Spain 482.9 416.4 Others 3,070.8 2,689.9 Total 6,601.5 4,857.5 Source: JPC Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey scrap deals
Recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey scrap deals
London, 22 April (Argus) — A summary of the most recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey ferrous scrap deals seen by Argus. Ferrous scrap short-sea trades (average composition price, cif Marmara) Date Volume, t Price, $ Shipment Buyer Seller Composition Index relevant 7-Apr 3,000 380 (80:20) April Samsun Bulgaria HMS 1/2 80:20 Y 7-Apr 3,000 380 (80:20) April Marmara Romania HMS 1/2 80:20 Y 6-Apr 3,000 382 (80:20) April Marmara Romania HMS 1/2 80:20 Y Ferrous scrap deep-sea trades (average composition price, cfr Turkey) Date Volume, t Price, $ Shipment Buyer Seller Composition Index relevant 21-Apr 40,000 404 (80:20) May Samsun Scandinavia HMS 1/2 80:20, bonus Y 21-Apr 40,000 401 (80:20) May Izmir Cont.Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, bonus Y 20-Apr 40,000 400 (80:20) May Iskenderun UK HMS 1/2 80:20, bonus Y 16-Apr 40,000 403 (80:20) June Izmir USA HMS 1/2 80:20, shred Y 15-Apr 40,000 401.5 (80:20) May Iskenderun USA HMS 1/2 80:20, shred Y 15-Apr 40,000 395 (80:20) May Iskenderun Cont.Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, bonus N 15-Apr 40,000 397 (80:20) May Iskenderun UK HMS 1/2 80:20, bonus N 13-Apr 40,000 397.5 (80:20) May Marmara Baltic HMS 1/2 80:20, bonus Y 10-Apr 40,000 402 (85:15) May Marmara Cont.Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, bonus Y 8-Apr 25,000 395.5 (80:20) May Izmir UK HMS 1/2 80:20 Y Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
SDI expects stable 2Q US ferrous scrap flows
SDI expects stable 2Q US ferrous scrap flows
Pittsburgh, 21 April (Argus) — US steelmaker Steel Dynamics (SDI) expects domestic ferrous scrap flows to remain stable over the next two quarters, after inclement weather tightened supply and lifted prices earlier this year. Harsh winter weather earlier this year disrupted scrap collection rates, processing and logistics, which supported domestic obsolete ferrous scrap prices. Seasonally stronger obsolete scrap flows in April weighed on domestic shredded and #1 HMS scrap prices for the first time since October. SDI's recycling segment posted an operating profit of $47mn in the first quarter, up from $26mn a year earlier, underpinned by higher ferrous scrap prices and shipments. The company shipped 1.47mn gross tons (gt) of ferrous scrap in the first quarter, up by 1pc from a year earlier, though external shipments fell marginally to 553,000gt. Average external finished steel sales prices rose to $1,193/short ton (st), up from $998/st a year earlier, while ferrous scrap costs averaged $396/st, up from $386/st a year earlier. The increase in external steel sales prices outpaced the slight increase in ferrous costs, widening SDI's scrap/steel spreads to $797/st, up by $185/st from a year earlier. SDI has leaned more heavily on low-copper shred and #1 busheling in its melt mixes to help mitigate rising pig iron costs, the company said. Basic pig iron cfr New Orleans reached $495/metric tonne on 14 April, the highest level since June 2023. SDI posted a profit of $403mn in the first quarter, up from $217mn a year earlier. By Brad MacAulay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Rio Tinto raises global copper output, cuts lithium
Rio Tinto raises global copper output, cuts lithium
Singapore, 21 April (Argus) — UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto raised alumina and copper output in January-March but reported a sharp drop in lithium production due to weather-related disruptions, it said today. Aluminium and alumina Rio Tinto's attributable primary aluminium output in January-March rose by 1pc on the year, but fell by 2pc on the quarter, to 835,000t. The company's alumina production increased by 6pc on the year to 2.04mn t over the same period. Bauxite production fell by 11pc to 13.28mn t, primarily owing to heavy rainfall at Weipa mine in Queensland, Australia, in January and February and cyclone-related shutdowns at Weipa and Gove mine in Northern Territory, Australia, in March. Rio Tinto's recycled aluminium production declined by 8pc on the year to 61,000t. Rio Tinto has kept its 2026 production guidance unchanged for primary aluminium at 3.25mn-3.45mn t, alumina at 7.6mn-8mn t and bauxite at 58mn-61mn t. Copper Rio Tinto's consolidated copper production rose by 9pc from a year earlier to 229,000t in January-March, driven by the continued ramp-up of copper in concentrates output from Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, which increased by 56pc to 102,000t over the same period. Refined copper output at Escondida in Chile rose by 21pc to 16,000t, while concentrates output declined by 14pc to 77,000t in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. Refined copper production at Kennecott in the US fell by 20pc from a year earlier to 34,000t, owing to lower anode inventories following unplanned smelter maintenance and lower concentrator throughput caused by geotechnical constraints. Drilling has also begun at the Resolution Copper project in Arizona following completion of the land exchange in March. Rio Tinto maintained its full-year copper production guidance at 800,000-870,000t. Lithium Rio Tinto's attributable lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production fell by 26pc on the year to 12,700t in the first quarter, because heavy rainfall and weather events disrupted operations at its Olaroz and Fenix sites in Argentina. But the continued ramp-up at the Rincón starter plant in Argentina partly offset the production impacts. Rio Tinto maintained its 2026 LCE production guidance at 61,000-64,000t, with first production from Fenix 1B and Sal de Vida on track for the second half of 2026. By Candice Luo Rio Tinto's 1Q26 metals output attributable basis, '000t Production Q1 2026 Q1 2025 y-o-y Q4 2025 Q-o-Q 2026 guidance Iron ore 70,045 62,408 12% 80,515 -13% NA Primary aluminium 835 829 1% 852 -2% 3,250 – 3,450 Alumina 2,038 1,921 6% 1,969 4% 7,600 – 8,000 Bauxite 13,281 14,966 -11% 15,397 -14% 58,000 – 61,000 Copper (consolidated basis) 229 210 9% 240 -5% 800 – 870 Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) 12.7 17.2 -26% 15.4 -18% 61 – 64 Source: Rio Tinto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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