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新規制の導入により、船舶用燃料市場が根本的に変化してきています。市場動向を反映する信頼できるインサイトとデータへのアクセスがこれまで以上に重要となっています。
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アーガスは船舶用燃料の国際市場を網羅しており、市場主導の価格評価、需給データ、価格予測、フォワードカーブ価格をお届けします。最新ニュース、市場解説、市場エキスパートによる詳細な分析・見識を、お客様のニーズに最適な代替船舶燃料の決定にお役立てください。
Latest marine fuels news
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Viewpoint: Tariffs may curb US bunker demand
Viewpoint: Tariffs may curb US bunker demand
New York, 26 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump's plans to enact new tariffs, especially those targeting Mexico and Canada, may curb demand for US bunker fuel and ripple across international markets. The proposed 25pc tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada could affect all products coming into the US from those countries, including the significant volumes of residual fuel oil from Mexico and Canada that US Gulf coast and east coast buyers import. This could lift prices of residual fuel oil sold for bunkering in US Gulf coast and east coast ports, prompting some ship owners calling there to instead fuel outside the US in more price-competitive ports. Depending on their routes, ship owners could shift some of their bunker demand to Singapore, Rotterdam, Fujairah and Panama. Mexico alone supplied 74pc of the residual fuel oil imported to the US Gulf coast and and 29pc to the east coast in the first nine months of the year, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data ( see table ). Meanwhile, Canada supplied 7pc and 16pc of the fuel oil imported to the US Gulf and east coasts, respectively. The US east coast imported 46,730 b/d of residual fuel oil and produced 35,000 b/d in the first nine months of the year ( see chart ). By comparison, the US Gulf coast imported 48,909 b/d and produced 161,667 b/d. Prices of Canadian and Mexican residual fuel oil exports to the US are typically benchmarked against US Gulf and east coast residual fuel oil prices. Should Trump implement the 25pc tariffs, companies bringing Canadian and Mexican residual fuel oil to the US could bid lower to try to offset their tariff costs. Lower bids from US buyers could redirect some of the Mexican and Canadian residual fuel oil exports to buyers in northwest Europe, Panama and Singapore. Or if Canadian and Mexican producers are not able to find lucrative clients outside of North America, they may have to settle for lower profit margins for their residual fuel oil exports to the US. On the US west coast, Trump's campaign promise to impose tariffs of up to 60pc on imports from China has already prompted some shippers to front-load container cargoes. Potential additional tariffs could slow container ship traffic from China to the US' busiest container ship ports — Los Angeles and Long Beach in California. There is a lot of uncertainty around the extent of Trump's tariff plans, as some analysts view his threats as aimed at generating leverage for negotiations. But provided that they are put into place, the Mexico and Canada tariffs could push US east and Gulf coast importers to purchase more residual fuel oil from other countries like Algeria, Colombia, Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria, Peru and Saudi Arabia. An increase in Chinese tariffs could prompt US west coast importers to shift their purchases to other southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. But once the dust settles from the geographical reshuffling, new trading networks may have been established, and the US bunker market could settle into a new normal. By Stefka Wechsler US Gulf and east coasts residual fuel oil imports, Jan-Sep 2024 '000 b/d East coast % of all countries Gulf coast % of all countries Mexico 13.6 29% 36.1 74% Canada 7.4 16% 3.3 7% All countries 46.7 100% 48.9 100% — EIA US Gulf and east coast FO imports, Jan-Sep ’000 b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: European HSFO supply to stay short
Viewpoint: European HSFO supply to stay short
London, 24 December (Argus) — A sustained reduction in global supply should keep European higher-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices and margins elevated in 2025. European HSFO differentials against the front-month Ice Brent crude futures contract briefly moved to a premium in October 2024, when a fall in production coincided with strengthening demand for high-sulphur marine fuel. A fire at a crude distillation unit in September severely cut output at Motor Oil Hellas' 180,000 b/d Corinth refinery in Greece, a key HSFO bunker producer in the Mediterranean region. The possibility of sudden drops in output at refineries will underpin HSFO margins in 2025, assuming Europe maintains its ban on imports of Russian oil products. Europe imported sour fuel oil from a variety of other countries in 2024 — Iraq emerged as the largest single supplier of high-sulphur residual product, according to Kpler , accounting for about a third of the region's 5.7mn t of imports. Europe's HSFO stocks will come under indirect pressure next year from falling fuel oil output in Russia. Additional upgrading capacity at Russian refineries means output from the world's top fuel oil supplier has been dropping year-on-year. Vortexa data show nearly 37mn t of Russian fuel oil has arrived at non-Russian ports this year, 12pc lower than in 2023. Although Europe cannot take any of this, the fall means less to go around globally and this has a knock-on effect on European supply. If middle-distillate crack spreads stay relatively lacklustre in 2025, appetite for higher-sulphur straight run feedstocks will probably be subdued. This could allow for excess sour fuel oil to find its way into the marine fuels market, where demand for HSFO has been strong. Tankers opting to avoid the risk of being attacked by Yemen-based Houthi militants in the Red Sea are adding weeks to their journey times, and have been looking to HSFO rather than very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) to keep their bunker costs down. If longer shipping routes remain popular in 2025, demand for HSFO should stay strong. The Emissions Control Area (ECA) that will cover the Mediterranean Sea from 1 May 2025 could dampen buying interest for 3.5pc sulphur marine fuels. A sulphur scrubber can undergo more wear and tear if it is made to reduce a vessel's HSFO emission level to 0.1pc, in line with the ECA, rather than to the current limit of 0.5pc. This increases rates at which the scrubber needs to be replaced, making it uneconomical to install one. Mid-range sulphur fuel oils are now garnering interest from Mediterranean-based bunker buyers as a workaround. LSSR As the ECA comes into force, demand for the sweetest grades of low-sulphur straight-run (LSSR) fuel oil is likely to intensify from those who buy marine fuels for vessels not fitted with scrubbers. Demand for 0.1-0.2pc sulphur straight-run fuel oil has been high in 2024, reinforcing competition between blenders and refiners for Algerian LSSR. Exports of Algerian LSSR were 1.28mn t in the year to 20 December 2024, lower by 38pc from year-earlier levels and by 65pc from the same period in 2022, but global supply was somewhat balanced by output from Nigeria's new 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. It exported 870,000t of LSSR in 2024, of a reportedly similar grade to the Algerian product according to data from Vortexa. Most Nigerian cargoes exported in 2024 were used for blending, according to information gathered by Argus . LSSR export availability from Dangote will depend on the refinery's ability to run feedstocks through residue fluid catalytic cracking units for gasoline production. Potentially adding to west African LSSR, at the start of December Nigeria's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery sold its first cargo since its long-awaited restart on 27 November. Port Harcourt's LSSR contains 0.26pc sulphur, according to Kpler. By Bob Wigin and Isabella Reimi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Panama Nov bunker sales fall by 11pc from Oct
Panama Nov bunker sales fall by 11pc from Oct
New York, 16 December (Argus) — Panama November bunker sales dropped by 11pc from the month prior, when they reached their highest total in nearly five years. Bunker sales last month totaled 468,095 metric tonnes (t) compared with their October level of 524,549t, which was the highest since August 2019 , according to the latest data from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) sales declined by 17pc from October to November, the largest drop of sales of the three marine fuel grades compiled by the ACP. HSFO sales totaled 130,068t in November compared with 157,058t in October. Marine gasoil sales fell by 10pc to 45,910t in November from 51,081t in the previous month. Very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) sales totaled 291,505t, an 8pc fall from sales in October. Bunker market players may be opting to make purchases at other ports as prices in Panama have increased in recent months. The Panama VLSFO monthly average was assessed at a $7/t premium to Singapore, the world's largest bunkering port, after it was pegged at discounts as high as $37/t in the previous four months. Panama VLSFO has been the lowest price in Latin America for much of this year, but it was assessed on par with VLSFO in Santos, Brazil, last month and only $2/t lower than Buenos Aires, Argentina. Despite the decline last month, the November 2024 total was the second highest so far this year as more vessels have been using the Panama Canal because of improved water levels, enabling the facility to take on more ship activity. Year-over-year, Panama November sales were up by 22pc compared with the same month in 2023 and by 13pc compared with sales in November 2022. Water Levels at the Gatun Lake were projected to reach an all-time high this month , the ACP said, which may enable Panama bunker sales to maintain its elevated pace compared with the last two years. By Luis Gronda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tight MGO supply causes shift to diesel in Durban
Tight MGO supply causes shift to diesel in Durban
Sao Paulo, 16 December (Argus) — Tight supply of marine gasoil (MGO) at the South African port of Durban has driven prices higher and forced some bunker fuel buyers to opt for road diesel instead. Only one bunker fuel supplier at the port has had any prompt MGO availability in recent weeks, according to traders. This is reflected in the price of MGO dob Durban rising to a range of $1,250-1,300/t in November and December from around $1,000/t at the end of October. For comparison, Argus- assessed MGO values dob Cape Town averaged just $966.50/t between 9-13 December. The tight MGP supply at Durban is being mirrored at the South African port of Richards Bay, lending further support to prices, according to one trader. Road diesel is being offered as an alternative as it can be compatible with ship engines. It has sulphur content of 0.005pc, while MGO has up to 0.1pc. The two fuels go through similar processing. Some independent local suppliers can supply road diesel to Durban and Richards Bay by truck, market participants said. Durban is a major bunkering location in South Africa, with demand mainly coming from dry bulk carriers and container vessels. Bunker fuel demand at the port has been supported this year by vessels going via the Cape of Good Hope on the east-west route to avoid chronic traffic disruption in the Red Sea. The tight supply comes despite MGO imports into Durban, including expected arrivals, almost doubling to 64,000t this year, according to Vortexa data. It is not the first time that MGO availability has dried up at Durban. Supply tightened in 2019 when BP and Shell's 180,000 b/d Sapref refinery in Durban shut for maintenance . The State-owned Central Energy Fund (CEF) struck a deal earlier this year to acquire Sapref from BP and Shell. The South African government plans to repair the refinery and expand its capacity to at least 600,000 b/d . By Natália Coelho and Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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