Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Bulk terminals firm HES prepares for energy transition
Bulk terminals firm HES prepares for energy transition
Paris, 31 March (Argus) — Bulk terminal company HES International operates 14 facilities in four European countries and anticipates important changes to its operations as the energy transition and hydrogen market evolve. Argus spoke with new energies business development director Otto Waterlander and chief commercial officer for HES Med Terminal Firas Ezzeddine about how an infrastructure player must adapt to serve customers. Edited highlights follow: What does HES do and what is its role in decarbonisation? Ezzeddine: We are an essential and critical part of the logistics value chain for the industrial heart of Europe. Our value proposition is that we are located in deep sea ports in close proximity to industrial zones, meaning that we are well positioned to serve strategic European industries and their logistical needs. Waterlander: We are purely an infrastructure player; we do not normally have a stake or exposure to the commodities that we manage through our terminals. Our customers tend to be carbon-intensive and they all are struggling with the question of decarbonisation. For HES, it is both a necessity and an opportunity. It is a necessity because classic flows of commodities will phase out over time. And an opportunity because of the energy transition... new things are happening, for example, [development of a] CO2 [market]. Today, we are not involved in handling CO2, but it is going to become a commodity in the future. What are the main challenges related to energy transition activities? Ezzeddine: I see challenges in three buckets. The first is timing: there is a bit of a lag between project deployment and when the infrastructure should be ready to facilitate flows. These are generally not well aligned. The second challenge is around financing. We see from both private and public sector a bit of a risk averseness in terms of investing in the infrastructure for the future. The final challenge is regulation regarding both the new flows of commodities and the actual development of infrastructure. Waterlander: There is also a question about what the utilisation of new infrastructure will be like, particularly in the early years. What you see in the industry is that often projects get delayed, either because they are not economic or because their utilisation challenges create an [unfavourable] economic situation. A recent example is the CO2 transport pipelines. They require large volumes to make it economic and those volumes are not there yet. You need to factor in some long periods of underutilisation of the infrastructure. H ow are you addressing this last challenge, for example for CO 2 infrastructure? Waterlander: We believe that the key to unlocking the market is to go smaller and create optionality. For example, with regard to CO2 terminal activities, we are advancing in Wilhelmshaven and Rotterdam. We already have infrastructure there to receive tankers and we have dedicated jetties to handle the unloading or loading of vessels. We just need to adjust them so that we can also move CO2. We believe that we can actually get our terminals economically viable at about 1.5mn or maybe 2mn t/yr of CO2 handling, when most of the projects will look at 10mn t/yr plus. If we could develop a smaller size terminal to begin with and then grow to larger sizes, we can help the market to come to grips with those volumes. And then gradually over time, volumes will move into pipelines as well. Will the CO 2 be liquefied at the HES terminals? Waterlander: There are two models. In one we have pipeline transport of gaseous CO2, then HES will liquefy the CO2 at its site before it goes onto the ships. That is the most efficient way because otherwise each player would have to have their own liquefaction. But before we have the gaseous pipelines, we will see customers installing their CO2 capture facilities, liquefy it on site, load it into rail tankcars or into barges on the Rhine, for example, to Rotterdam. In this case we receive it in liquid form already. We are planning to have CO2 infrastructure in place by 2029. In the first year, that is only for a small volume, but by 2030 it starts to become significant. We will launch an open season for our first two CO2 terminals in the coming weeks and we are aiming to analyse more specific capacity bookings through these. In France's Fos-sur-Mer, you are working with the Gravithy green iron initiative . What additional infrastructure is needed for that? Ezzeddine: We will be managing the inflow of material for them, which is the iron ore, and the export of their hot briquetted iron [HBI] production. What that entails, in essence, is having some cranes and conveyor belt infrastructure from and to their facility. For the iron ore side, it is not different from the infrastructure that we have for other sites. But the HBI requires dedicated infrastructure because of the nature of the product. What we are doing now is designing a conveyor belt network going from our terminal to theirs, which is around 2km away, where we send iron ore and we receive HBI, and we dedicate a specific slot on our terminal land where we have specific storage for them. Does GravitHy need to book capacity in advance to enable the expansions? Ezzeddine: We have a specific planning and demand forecasting system where we input the potential volumes going in and out. When a new client comes in, they add their inflow and outflow requirements to the model. Then we see whether that is feasible or not given the current infrastructure and the land capacity that we have. The client, in this case GravitHy, tells us they have a need for ‘X' million tonnes of throughput in our terminal, and it is up to us to design the optimal inflow and outflow process. We update the model quite frequently so that we have visibility on what is needed by when, especially because some projects require infrastructure that takes years to build. What are HES' plans for e-methanol? Waterlander: We're working on an e-methanol import project where it will be brought from across the Atlantic into Germany. We have a storage site in Germany that is a former refinery and has liquid storage facilities. We still have an element of the refinery operational that provides security of supply today. We're discussing with a partner the construction of a synthetic aviation fuel (e-SAF) facility as well, which they would locate on our premises. What about other hydrogen carriers or hydrogen-based fuels? Waterlander: We're very proactive on following everything in the hydrogen space. We had discussions about liquid hydrogen imports. We are also into advanced project steps on imports of ammonia into Germany and are in project definition for imports of liquid organic hydrogen carriers. For our Wilhelmshaven site, we already have signed a letter of intent with grid infrastructure company OGE to be connected to the hydrogen network. Ammonia in particular is rather expensive because you need crackers. Is HES planning to develop ammonia crackers? Waterlander: It depends, it is still such early days. If we do it, it would not be at our sole risk, that is clear. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Saudi Sadara petchem site shuts down on US-Iran war
Saudi Sadara petchem site shuts down on US-Iran war
London, 31 March (Argus) — Sadara Chemical Company, a joint-venture between US-based chemical company Dow and Saudi Arabia's Aramco, has shut down production temporarily at its Jubail site in Saudi Arabia because of the US-Iran war, according to a regulatory filing. The cause for the shut down was cited as "ongoing disruption to Sadara's supply chains". The company does not currently have an estimate of when production will return, according to the statement. Shipping through the strait of Hormuz has remained disrupted since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February. And earlier this month, Iran threatened the petrochemical complex with missile strikes , but the site so far has not been hit. The site can produce 1.5mn t/yr of ethylene and 400,000 t/yr of propylene and is integrated to produce 750,000 t/yr of LLDPE/HDPE, 350,000 t/yr of LDPE, 330,000 t/yr of propylene oxide and 360,000 t/yr of ethylene oxide. It has a capacity of 200,000 t/yr of TDI production and 400,000 t/yr of MDI production. The site can also produce 150,000 t/yr of ethanolamines which are distributed by Saudi Arabia petrochemical producer Sabic. Sabic declared a force majeure on ethanolamines supply in late March . Dow Chemicals, which holds a 35pc stake in Sadara and markets a significant share of its ethanolamines output, declared force majeure on 10 March in some markets, including Europe. Dow said it was unable to load volumes at Jubail because of logistics disruptions stemming from the war. By George Barsted Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Chinese carbide PVC could temper US exports to Asia
Chinese carbide PVC could temper US exports to Asia
San Antonio, 31 March (Argus) — US suspension-grade polyvinyl chloride (S-PVC) prices have risen sharply since the onset of the Mideast Gulf war, driven by soaring international demand. But US exporters will have to compete with cheaper carbide-based PVC production in China, which may temper total exports into Asia. US S-PVC export prices rose to a $1,000-1,050/t fas Houston range during the week ended 27 March, up by just over 55pc from 27 February, the day before the conflict broke out in the Mideast Gulf, according to Argus data. Chinese carbide-based S-PVC prices rose to a $815-900/t fob China range at the end of March, up by only 36.1pc during the same period. Carbide-based PVC, derived from coal instead of ethylene, is cheaper to produce and is insulated from supply shocks to oil and natural gas. US export demand could erode because of this, as Chinese carbide-based exports become relatively cheaper than US ethylene-based PVC, according to participants on the sidelines of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers' International Petrochemical Conference in San Antonio, Texas, this week. More than 80pc of Chinese integrated PVC production is carbide-based, according to Argus estimates. Chinese carbide-based operating rates are estimated by Argus at around 68pc. In fact, a further 10pc hike in operating rates to meet growing demand could replace all of the more expensive US ethylene-based exports. The US exported 621,050t of PVC to Vietnam in 2025, comprising 11pc of all US exports that year and making Vietnam the US' second-largest global buyer outside of Canada. This demand could be captured by Chinese exports if carbide-based prices in China remain more competitive to buyers than US ethylene-based. Additionally, this could dampen domestic prices for US producers, who — outside of ethylene costs, which have risen by 66pc since the beginning of the war — are comparatively insulated from rising energy costs in Asia and Europe. However, US exporters could pivot to shipping ethylene dichloride (EDC) instead of PVC. Feedstock EDC from the US is already in great demand from producers in India and could be used as an alternative to lower-quality carbide PVC, which has limited applications. By Gordon Pollock and Nicole Johnson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US methanol price climbs to 4-year high
US methanol price climbs to 4-year high
Houston, 30 March (Argus) — A spot methanol barge traded at a four-year high of 135¢/USG fob ITC for April delivery today, up by 10¢/USG from last week. US Gulf coast barge prices have continued to climb since the beginning of March as war in the Mideast Gulf disrupts global commodity markets and upends trade flows. It is understood a producer bought the 10,000-bl barge today at 135¢/USG, the highest price since 8 March 2022. Bids followed the deal at 120¢/USG fob ITC against offers at 140¢/USG. By Steven McGinn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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