Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Caustic soda cargoes largely exempt from US port fees
Caustic soda cargoes largely exempt from US port fees
Houston, 21 April (Argus) — US caustic soda importers are expected to be able to circumvent new fees on Chinese built or owned vessels scheduled to be imposed this fall. Offshore caustic soda imports to the US are primarily shipped on vessels that fall within the list of exemptions provided by the US Trade Representative last week, including those with capacities less than or equal to 55,000 deadweight tonnes (dwt) and specialized vessels for liquid chemical transportation. The US is a net exporter of caustic soda, with only 3-5pc of total domestic supply supplemented by imports, according to census bureau data collected by Global Trade Tracker (GTT) and the latest estimates from Argus Chlor-Alkali Analytics . East Asia exporters are critical suppliers to west coast consumers, but domestic importers anticipate most vessels carrying caustic soda to the west coast to be exempt from fees based on ship sizes less than 55,000dwt. US caustic soda importers have faced several new regulations and policies this year increasing the cost of business, with established trade lanes facing reshaping. President Donald Trump's baseline 10pc tariff on most trade partners is expected to strengthen demand for US Gulf coast-produced caustic soda, especially from east coast importers vying to source less from EU producers. West coast distributors, though, are expected to continue importing from East Asia suppliers and pass along tariff-related expenses to end users. Additionally, west coast importers earlier this year imposed a $15/dry short ton (dst) line-item charge to customers following the rollout of The California Air Resources Board (CARB) emissions control requirements for tanker vessels at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The newly-enforced regulation requires shippers to limit in-berth greenhouse gas emissions by connecting to shore power or utilizing a CARB Approved Emission Control Strategy (CAECS). By Connor Hyde Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Funding cuts could delay US river lock work: Correction
Funding cuts could delay US river lock work: Correction
Corrects lock locations in paragraph 5. Houston, 14 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennessee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock on the Illinois River; Lock 25 on the Mississippi River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty
Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — US President Donald Trump's evolving tariff policies have created tremendous uncertainty for US importers of recycled polymers, and constant halts and flip-flopping from the administration have led some to pause their US operations. Multiple importers told Argus that the constantly changing US tariffs on goods have upended business plans, and forced them to pause their US operations for the time being due to uncertainty about the taxes their material will face when it reaches US shores. "You have to have some confidence that conditions will hold in order to import," one trader told Argus . Trump's tariff rollout began on 1 February, when he announced that China would face a 10pc universal tariff, and the US's two largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, would face 25pc universal tariffs. At the time, market participants speculated that the 25pc tariffs on Canada and Mexico would make operations and sales more expensive for Mexican and Canadian recyclers, particularly those that trade bales or finished resin across the US border. After some negotiations between world leaders, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed for 30 days, though the 10pc tariff on China went into effect as planned. The 25pc universal tariffs on Canada and Mexico were pushed back again on 6 March, but tariffs on aluminum — a significant competitor to rPET packaging — went into place on 12 March. The tariffs on aluminum have not been rescinded or paused, and the extra cost for imported aluminum as a result of the tariff could incentivize US consumer goods companies to use more PET in their packaging. On 9 April, the US put into place varying reciprocal tariffs on a number of countries that export recycled resin to the US, including India, Malaysia and Vietnam. While rPET and vPET pellets were excluded from the reciprocal tariffs, importers of rPE, rPP and PET waste were not excluded from the tariff. The same day, the reciprocal tariffs were pushed back 90 days in favor of a 10pc universal tariff that excludes Canada and Mexico. China and the US's reciprocal tariffs have escalated into a trade war, and currently material from China faces a 145pc tariff. Since the price is too high for most importers to be willing to pay, in essence all recycled resin imports from China are halted. China is one of the largest buyers of US virgin polyethylene https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2675420), and the current trade war with China has the potential to increase domestic supply as exporters are forced to find new buyers for resin. Increased competition from oversupplied virgin resin could pull down recycled resin pricing. Until some stability in tariff policy returns to the US, traders and importers will continue to turn to other destinations outside the US to sell their recycled resin. By Zach Kluver Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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