Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Market disruption reshaping PET tray recycling: Petcore
Market disruption reshaping PET tray recycling: Petcore
London, 21 May (Argus) — Despite improvements in tray-to-tray recycling capacity and technology, the sector's biggest constraint is commercial, Jose-Antonio Alarcon, the technical manager of Petcore Europe's thermoforming working group, told Argus . Rising raw material costs, geopolitical disruption and increasing regulatory pressure are reshaping the outlook for Europe's virgin PET (vPET) and recycled PET (rPET) bottle and tray recycling sectors and improving the outlook for tray recycling. While the rPET tray market remains complex, there are signs of growing momentum. Ahead of the upcoming Petcore Europe Thermoforms Conference in Valencia, Spain on 18-19 June, Alarcon shared his view on the evolving landscape, the challenges facing tray recyclers, and what is needed to scale tray-to-tray recycling in the years ahead. What are the most significant market changes since last year? Over the past year, external shocks have transformed the PET market and fundamentally altered market dynamics. At the beginning of the year, we were essentially rolling over from last year — prices were stable, but demand was uncertain. Then the events in the Middle East changed the situation dramatically, with virgin raw material prices skyrocketing. It's not just PET, this is affecting all raw materials. But the implications for vPET are significant, especially because Europe still depends on feedstocks like MEG and PX coming from those regions. This surge in feedstock costs, combined with rising logistics pressures, has reversed the price gap between vPET and rPET. Before, there was a big discussion around whether virgin or recycled was more cost-effective and whether it was worth using recycled due to the price difference. Now that gap has turned around, which is changing the whole dynamic of the market and the whole conversation. rPET, and particularly rPET flake is no longer a niche or premium option, but is increasingly viewed as a viable and, in some cases, preferable alternative. How have these changes impacted recycled PET demand and pricing? As virgin prices have increased, recycled PET has become more competitive, supporting stronger demand. We are seeing more interest in recycled content because, relatively speaking, prices are more reasonable. From that perspective, the situation for recyclers is more positive than it was last year. However, this improvement has not translated into as rapid or steep price increases for rPET largely due to the availability of supply and still low end-use demand. There is enough material in the market, not only from internal production but also imports, so supply is covering demand. While vPET prices have increased very quickly, recycled prices are moving slowly. And margins remain tight. This creates a balancing effect in the market. On one side, demand is improving, but on the other, recyclers are still under pressure from costs. So the situation is better, but it's not easy. Why are tray recyclers under greater cost pressure than bottle recyclers? Tray recyclers face steeper cost curve. PET trays remain structurally more complex to process than bottles, creating additional economic pressure. Tray recycling is more complicated than bottle recycling — this is a given. Compared to bottles, trays are more difficult and costly to process. Bottle recycling is well-established and more standardised. The conversion cost [for trays] is significantly higher due to the nature of the material. PET trays often contain a wider variety of additives, multilayer structures, and contaminants, making them more difficult to process and requiring more advanced recycling techniques. That complexity translates into higher operational intensity. You need more resources, more additives, and you have higher losses. Recycling trays is simply not the same as recycling bottles. As costs rise across energy, logistics, and processing, these challenges are amplified. Whatever is affecting bottle recyclers is also affecting tray recyclers — but more so. On conversion costs, the impact is clearly higher for trays. Bottle recycling benefits from scale and established collection systems, tray recycling is more exposed to cost increases and operational challenges. What is holding back growth in tray-to-tray recycling? Despite clear progress in technology development and recycling capacity, the biggest barrier to scaling tray-to-tray recycling is demand. Insufficient demand from downstream stakeholders, particularly retailers and brand owners. The biggest constraint is not technical, it is commercial. While parts of the value chain, including recyclers and converters, are increasingly prepared to scale up production, the market pull required to support that growth is still limited. The real driver is demand. If there is no demand for tray-to-tray solutions, the system will not move forward. Many retailers and brands are currently adopting a cautious approach, weighing sustainability goals against cost pressures, supply security, and broader economic uncertainty. This "wait-and-see" position has slowed the further increases in tray-to-tray. Without the downstream commitment, it becomes difficult to push the whole value chain. It is not something one player can solve alone. There are improvements being made in upstream areas such as collection and sorting. Initiatives like deposit return schemes (DRS), extended producer responsibility (EPR), and eco-modulation which are supporting better collection and sorting, but they are not enough on their own. It is not one single factor; it is the whole equation: collection, sorting, recycling, and demand. Ultimately, growth in tray-to-tray recycling will depend on a more active commitment from end-users to incorporate recycled content into their packaging. Can the industry meet upcoming regulatory targets such as PPWR? The introduction of the EU's Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) is expected to accelerate the progress of tray-to-tray, but it is difficult to rely on regulation alone to drive progress. Regulation is an important driver, but it's not enough on its own. If it's not economically viable, nobody will do it. Investment confidence is a key concern, particularly in the current uncertain economic conditions. If I'm an investor, I need to know that at least my investment will be returned. Without that certainty, it becomes very difficult. The [PPWR] targets are highly ambitious and will be challenging to meet with the current market. The industry risks underestimating the scale of the challenge. We need to wake up. Sometimes everyone is focused on short-term survival, but we are not fully looking at what is coming in the next five years. While they provide a clear direction for collection and recycled content, they do not ensure that the necessary systems, investments, and behaviours will fall into place automatically. While Europe is leading on tray recycling, delivery will depend on stronger alignment. We need a system that works both environmentally and economically. Otherwise, the targets will be very difficult to achieve. Meeting these targets will require substantial progress across multiple fronts. Collection systems must capture more tray material, while sorting infrastructure needs to be upgraded to handle more complex waste streams. Recycling capacity also needs to scale further, with further technological innovation to ensure material quality, particularly for food-grade applications. But without more economic certainty, there is a risk that progress will stall, leaving the industry struggling to meet these targets within the timelines. What needs to happen to scale PET tray recycling effectively? The system must work together, and scaling European rPET tray recycling further ultimately comes down to co-ordination across the entire value chain. Recyclers are there, converters are there, the technology exists. But we need the final driving force — the retailers — to say, "yes, we will use this." Improving collection is a key part of the puzzle, starting with consumer behaviour. Consumers need to understand that trays are recyclable and should go into the yellow bin. That's fundamental. If we don't collect the material, we cannot recycle it. At the same time, system-level incentives must evolve and each stake holder must play a role. We need the right signals with EPR, eco-modulation, support for recyclability, but we also need demand to pull everything together. Ultimately, retailers and brand owners will play the decisive role. If they commit, the whole system will follow. If they don't, progress will be very slow. Everyone needs to move in the same direction, EPRs, recyclers, converters, retailers. Without that alignment, progress will remain incremental. It's like a chess game. Every player has to make the right move. Only then can the system work. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Adnoc CEO sees long road back from war disruption
Adnoc CEO sees long road back from war disruption
London, 20 May (Argus) — The disruptions to energy supplies caused by the US-Israel war with Iran may not fully resolve until the middle of 2027, even if the conflict ends soon, Abu Dhabi state-owned Adnoc's chief executive Sultan al-Jaber has said. "Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to get back to 80pc of pre-conflict flows and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027," al-Jaber told an Atlantic Council event. For the UAE's operations, he said damage and costs are still being assessed. "The time it will take to get back to full operational capacity… is case by case," he said. "Some will take several weeks and some will take several months." The UAE has borne the brunt of Iranian attacks in the 2½ months since the US and Israel began the war, with al-Jaber acknowledging today damage to Adnoc infrastructure and facilities. Iran has also effectively closed the strait of Hormuz, leading the UAE to seek alternative routes to market for its energy products. Al-Jaber said a new crude pipeline to the port of Fujairah, outside Hormuz, is "more than 50pc complete". "Energy security is no longer about your ability to continue to produce," al-Jaber said today. "It is about routes, storage and redundancy. Too much of the world's energy still moves through too few chokepoints." He said if Iran manages to retain control of Hormuz, "then freedom of navigation is finished". "If we don't defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences," he said. Al-Jaber also called for the energy sector to address "underinvestment". "Upstream investment is around $400bn a year, which barely offset natural decline rates; global spare capacity is around 3mn b/d, it should be closer to 5mn b/d," he said. "We have 30-35 days of effective cover [in inventory] we need to at least double that." He reiterated that the UAE's recent decision to quit Opec was driven by a desire for greater flexibility . "We didn't move away from something, we moved towards something," he said. "We're moving toward a world that needs more energy, with demand for oil staying way above 100mn bl into 2040s, the world needs more of what the UAE produces." By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia to route key commodity exports via state firm
Indonesia to route key commodity exports via state firm
Singapore, 20 May (Argus) — Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto today announced that the government will require exports of key commodities to be routed through a state-appointed company, in a move that could tighten state control over flows as authorities grapple with fiscal pressures and a weakening currency. The policy will initially target palm oil, coal and ferrous alloys, Prabowo said in a parliament session on 20 May. The market awaits details of the policy, but under the broad plan, export sales would be channelled through a state-owned enterprise (BUMN), which would act as the sole counterparty to overseas buyers. Prabowo said a state-owned enterprise will act as a "marketing facility" which helps the state strengthen monitoring of export transactions and fight against under-reporting the value of exports in the country. The move is also to ensure that exporters do not "run away" from requirements to keep export proceeds in the country for at least one year, he said. Exporters of national resources, except for oil and gas, are required to place 100pc of the foreign currency proceeds into a special deposit account of a national bank for at least 12 months, according to a government regulation imposed in March 2025. Indonesia has lost about $908bn over 1991-2024 because of export under-invoicing, Prabowo said. "This will optimise our tax revenues and government proceeds from sales of key commodities and our natural resources," said Prabowo. "We don't want our exports to be the cheapest because we don't dare to control our own resources." The shift signals a move towards centralised trade management that could help the state capture more foreign exchange earnings and improve revenue collection. But it also risks disrupting established supply chains and complicating trade flows with international buyers. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, representing 913 companies spanning from sectors including commodities and energy, extended losses because of the announcement, dropping by as much as 2.4pc before trimming some intra-day losses. The index is down by 27pc from the start of the year. The phased roll-out of the scheme will begin in June and last through August, when exporters will have to gradually shift contracts, transactions and payment flows to BUMN or state-owned enterprises (SOEs), while still handling parts of the export process. The aim of the phased roll-out is to ensure that SOEs gradually take over the international sales of the commodities. The system is set to move to full implementation from September, with the SOEs assuming end-to-end control of transactions. This could include contract negotiation, documentation, shipping co-ordination and receipt of export proceeds, effectively positioning state firms as the primary interface between Indonesian producers and global markets. The Indonesian coal mining association (APBI) did not immediately respond to a request for comment. By Saurabh Chaturvedi and Nadhir Mokhtar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s Gail restarts Pata petchem complex
India’s Gail restarts Pata petchem complex
Mumbai, 19 May (Argus) — India's state-owned energy firm Gail has resumed petrochemicals production at its Pata facility in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh on 19 May, following a shutdown that lasted over two months, a source familiar with the matter told Argus . The plant has been shut since 9 March after a government order directed gas distributors to start full or partial curtailment of gas supplies to petrochemical plants, including ONGC Petro Additions (Opal), Gail Pata and Reliance's oil-to-chemicals units. The Pata complex will likely run at a reduced operating rate this week, another source told Argus , although the exact run rate could not be confirmed. It was not immediately clear if the New Delhi issued a fresh order that allowed for a phased restart of the petrochemicals project. India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas and Gail did not immediately respond to Argus requests for comment. The status of the other plants could also not be determined at the time of writing. Gail's Pata facility has two steam crackers with a combined ethylene production capacity of 900,000 t/yr. It also has a linear low-density polyethylene/high-density polyethylene (LLDPE/HDPE) swing unit with a capacity of 610,000 t/yr and a separate HDPE capacity of 200,000 t/yr. The plant sources feedstock through a pipeline from Indian state-owned upstream firm ONGC's Hazira plant on the west coast of Gujarat. The restart of the plant would bolster domestic supply, partially offsetting reduced availability from Middle Eastern producers, which account for 62pc of India's PE imports, data from Global Trade Tracker show. By Sourasis Bose Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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