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Carbon - In focus: UK ETS widens discount to EU in Q1
Carbon - In focus: UK ETS widens discount to EU in Q1
London, 2 April (Argus) — The benchmark front-year contract under the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS) significantly widened its discount to the EU throughout the first quarter of this year, as scant signs of progress on efforts to link the two systems reduced previous optimism of an impending price convergence, and the UK supply-demand balance remained more relaxed than the EU's. The UK ETS front-year contract closed on average around £14.75/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) below its EU counterpart in Argus assessments over January-March, having widened from a low of £6.85/t CO2e in mid-January to a high of £25/t CO2e this week. This compares with an average discount of £13.50/t CO2e in the fourth quarter of last year, within a narrower range of £8.80-17.70/t CO2e, and is the widest average discount for any quarter since the first quarter of last year's £21.80/t CO2e. Linkage plans squeeze spread The UK's discount to the EU began to narrow significantly after the UK government said in a statement in March 2025 that it was "actively considering" linking its ETS back to the EU's, a position confirmed by both sides as part of their common understanding agreement concluded between the UK and EU at a summit in May last year. The markets separated in 2021 as part of Brexit, and while the EU-UK trade and co-operation agreement signed as part of that process committed the two sides to giving "serious consideration" to linking the schemes, no meaningful steps towards a link had previously been taken. The news dramatically narrowed the spread between the two markets, with the UK front year's discount to the EU squeezed to an average of £9.90/t CO2e in the second quarter of 2025. A linkage would logically lead to a convergence of UK and EU ETS prices, as the allowances issued under the two schemes would be fungible. Momentum on the issue continued over the remainder of the year and early 2026, as the European Commission set out in July its recommendation for the legal basis for linkage negotiations, approved by member states in November , and the first round of negotiations kicked off in January . But while the EU and UK said that they aimed to complete talks on the linkage before the next UK-EU summit in 2026, no date for the meeting has been set, and updates on negotiations have in recent months been notable by their absence. Recent events have likely pushed ETS linkage down the political agenda, whether on the domestic front — Keir Starmer's position as UK prime minister came under pressure in February — or internationally, most notably as the US-Iran war sparked a renewed energy crisis. EU supply-demand balance tightens Changes to key fundamentals have also tightened the EU ETS supply-demand balance this year in a way that hasn't been seen in the UK ETS, further widening the spread between the markets. Both the maritime and aviation sectors will have to pay for 100pc of their 2026 emissions covered by the EU ETS, after shipping was phased gradually into the system over the previous two years and free allocations for airlines were phased out. Free allocations for industrial sectors covered by the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) are also scheduled to start decreasing from this year alongside the measure's introduction, and some CBAM-exposed firms have begun purchasing EU ETS allowances to hedge their expected costs. The UK also ended free allocations for aviation under its ETS this year. But the maritime sector will not be included at all until July this year, and then will only apply to domestic voyages until at least 2028. And the UK CBAM does not launch until 2027. The UK ETS authority also opted late last year not to introduce a supply adjustment mechanism to the scheme, which could otherwise have reduced allowance auction volumes if the total number of allowances in circulation surpassed a certain level. Short-term fundamentals diverge The US-Iran war has prompted further divergence between the markets. EU ETS prices rallied in tandem with natural gas prices on the expectation that more coal plants would come on line, increasing the carbon intensity of the bloc's generation mix and therefore compliance demand for allowances. The UK, by contrast, has no operational coal-fired units. This has seen carbon costs even for power generators become consistently cheaper in the UK than the EU for the first time since February last year, despite the UK's additional £18/t CO2e carbon price support (CPS) charge on the sector. The discount of the UK ETS to the EU including the CPS stood at an average of around £3.25/t CO2e in March. UK ETS prices could find some support over the coming weeks from last-minute buying in the run-up to the scheme's annual compliance deadline on 30 April, upward pressure that will not be seen in the EU ETS with its 30 September deadline, which could narrow the spread between the markets in the short term. But participants will otherwise be awaiting more clarity on linkage. And with the Middle East conflict dragging on, the approach of local elections in the UK and the planned EU ETS review in July, plenty of factors could slow completion of the talks. By Victoria Hatherick EU, UK ETS front-year contract £/t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Regulators press data centers to cut load, or wait
Regulators press data centers to cut load, or wait
Houston, 31 March (Argus) — US regulators and grid operators are calling on data centers to cut their power use when the grid is overloaded, saying it is the only way to connect large-load customers as quickly as they are requesting. Officials and industry executives in Houston for an energy conference last week agreed the grid can not be expanded fast enough to meet unprecedented load-growth forecasts if each data center must be served its full allocation of power every hour of the year. But panel discussions and interviews showed a gap between the flexibility regulators say is possible and what data-center operators say they can deliver right now. "Finding a way to manage this demand in a flexible way is how we are going to get through this transition," PJM chief operating officer Stu Bresler said at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, Texas. Without a way to curtail load during tight conditions, large new customers could face wait times stretching over a decade to connect on to the grid, he said. Although data centers request power connections sized for their maximum load, they do not necessarily operate at that level around-the-clock. Meanwhile, the grid only faces severe strain for a few dozen hours a year, usually during extreme weather events, a window that the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) says amounts to less than 1pc of the time. Regulators argue that if data centers agreed to reduce their draw during those peak hours for the grid, the system could absorb far more demand without immediate infrastructure expansion. Officials pointed to a study by Duke University showing that if customers in PJM, the nation's largest grid operator, cut load by half a percentage point for roughly two days, 18GW of new load could be absorbed without adding physical infrastructure to the system. Those cuts will not materialize without clear financial incentives, said the conference attendees. One way to incentivize such behavior is to pay large load customers who agree to use less power at the grid's request, the same way generators are compensated for supply, said Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) commissioner Judy Chang. "We really should focus on the demand side and include large data centers' ability to curtail," said Chang. "We're not quite getting the incentives yet right." Switching off Some artificial intelligence (AI)-training workloads can be paused or rescheduled but that flexibility varies by site and depends on permits, on-site equipment and the type of computing being performed, said Google's global head of data center energy, Amanda Peterson Corio. "There are many flexibility options, but not every data center can respond the same way," she said. AI-focused "compute factories" tend to be more adaptable because training jobs can be paused, while enterprise data-center workloads are far less flexible, said EPRI vice president of strategy David Porter. The group's work includes launching Flex Mosaic, a classification system meant to help utilities and data-center operators define what each site can realistically offer. Large customers who can will respond if markets put a value on reducing load, but the industry still needs clear rules for how much load can be cut and under what price signals, said Peterson Corio. Some data-center operators pushed back against the idea that most facilities can deliver the type of reductions regulators are envisioning. The vast majority of Amazon Work Spaces' (AWS) sites cannot lower their load on demand because the cloud and enterprise workloads they host cannot be interrupted without affecting customers, said AWS vice president Kerry Person. The only practical way AWS and others like it can reduce their draw on the grid is by switching to on-site backup generators, the majority of which burn fossil fuels because battery storage technology has not yet reached the scale of demand. US rules prohibit that approach, however, because environmental permits limit backup generators to emergency use only. "That's a regulatory issue," Person said. For now, most large-scale examples of this behavior remain confined to pilot programs. EPRI's DC Flex initiative is running field demonstrations at operating data centers to test how much load can be reduced without harming performance and whether facilities can provide services such as frequency support. If the industry cannot agree on workable rules for cutting load during peak hours, large users will continue to pursue their own behind-the-meter generation rather than wait years for a grid connection — a shift executives warned would raise costs, lock in more fossil-fuel use and leave the shared power system worse off . By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
DOE coal-plant orders yield mixed results
DOE coal-plant orders yield mixed results
Cheyenne, 30 March (Argus) — Only half of the eight US coal-fired power plant units that energy secretary Chris Wright ordered to continue operating this winter actually dispatched appreciable amounts of electricity to the grid. In January, four of the eight coal units the Department of Energy (DOE) ordered to stay open under section 202 (c) of the Federal Power Act had net positive generation, according to power plant operating data recently released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Two other units consumed more power than they dispatched, while another two did not dispatch any generation during the month. Citing an energy emergency, Wright pointed to concerns about grid reliability in ordering the eight coal units and another two units that run on natural gas and oil to stay open instead of retiring as planned in 2025. Wright then extended the emergency orders for these units when the directives expired, pointing to the same concerns. But some politicians and environmental and consumer groups have disputed Wright's claims grid operators faced potential emergencies. Data from the EIA show that two units at the first coal plant DOE ordered to stay open last year — Consumers Energy's JH Campbell plant in Michigan — dispatched power every month following the department's initial order on 23 May 2025. Another unit at the plant had net generation in June-October as well as December but consumed more energy than it dispatched in November 2025 and in January 2026. Unit 17 of NiSource's RM Schahfer plant and unit 2 of Centerpoint Energy's FB Culley plant, both of which were initially issued emergency orders in December and had them extended on 23 March, also generated power in January. But Schahfer unit 18, which also is subject to the order, had net -3,705MWh on generation in January. DOE's recent orders keeping retiring plant units open have required the plant units be available for dispatch when needed. But that did not mean that they had to generate power at other times. With the exceptions of storms in late-January and early February, the weather in the US most of this past winter was relatively mild. Constellation Power said it operated Eddystone units 3 and 4, which run on natural gas and oil and have been subject to DOE orders since 30 May 2025, during hot weather at the end of June and end of July and during winter storm conditions and colder than normal weather 26-29 January. Extending operations at the last minute can be complicated by fuel availability and other factors. Of the two coal units under emergency orders that did not dispatch any power in January according to EIA, Tri-State Generation & Transmission's Craig unit 1 ,was taken out of service in mid-December because of a mechanical failure, while TransAlta's Centralia plant was put in "cold-shutdown" in early December. DOE issued emergency orders to both units at the end of December, shortly before they were scheduled to retire. The agency extended the order for the Craig unit on 30 March and the order for Centralia on 16 March. DOE last year also issued an order allowing Talen Energy to run unit 4 of the HA Wagner oil-fired plant in excess of emissions limits if needed for reliability, but that order expired at the end of 2025. Talen expects to operate Wagner units 3 and 4 until 31 May 2029. By Courtney Schlisserman US coal plants with active emergency orders Plant name Jan 26 net generation ( MWh ) Jan 26 consumption ( st ) Jan 25 net generation ( MWh ) Jan 25 consumption ( st ) JH Campbell unit 1 155,951 89,633 187,955 107,469 JH Campbell unit 2 -612 0 193,811 108,375 JH Campbell unit 3 431,520 245,342 578,398 320,758 Centralia 0 0 430,197 302,227 Craig unit 1 0 0 174,089 100,975 RM Schahfer unit 17 172,064 90,574 98,307 54,965 RM Schahfer unit 18 -3,705 0 136,987 70,368 FB Culley unit 2 9,338 6,092 17,922 10,884 — EIA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Germany may need coal-fired power plants longer: Merz
Germany may need coal-fired power plants longer: Merz
London, 30 March (Argus) — Germany may need to keep "existing" coal-fired plants connected to the power grid "longer" than currently planned, should the energy crisis continue and there is a shortage of electricity, chancellor Friedrich Merz said at a conference. Merz is "not ready" to risk the core of German industry for existing phase-out targets should they "become unrealistic", he said at the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Kongress. Germany plans to fully phase out coal and lignite-fired generation by 2038 through its coal-fired power generation termination act, under which the country's coal and lignite-fired capacity will fall incrementally each year. The federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia is already aiming to phase out coal and lignite by 2030. And while Merz did not explicitly mention any changes to these targets, he stressed the importance in ensuring security of power supply. He also emphasised the importance in building new gas-fired plants swiftly under the country's power plant strategy. The new plants will be built at pre-existing thermal plant locations and be connected to existing grid infrastructure. They will not need to be hydrogen-ready straight away, he said. Merz also cited nuclear fusion, as well as small modular reactors (SMRs), as potential technologies for future power generation. The government has the "ambition to connect the world's first large fusion power plant to the grid in Germany", Merz said, stating that Germany is relatively "far along" and "quite good" in fusion technology. And Merz expressed interest in further researching SMRs, and would be prepared to work together with other European countries in developing these, although he said this would be for the "longer term". By John Horstmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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