The managing director of trade association Airlines for Europe (A4E), Thomas Reynaert spoke to Argus' Dafydd ab Iago on the policy and technology changes required to shift European aviation sector to net zero by 2050.
How important is the EU ETS to aviation CO2 cuts?
Short-term, and until new technologies come on market, cutting aviation emissions relies on market-based measures like the EU emissions trading system (ETS). Longer-term, net zero in 2050 for intra-EU flights might be achieved with close to no market-based measures.
How important are sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) in reaching net zero by 2050?
SAFs are a huge chunk, 34pc, of the entire emissions reduction potential by 2050. This excludes some 10pc in carbon offsets. The biggest emission reduction share comes from improved aircraft technology with 37pc. Economic measures such as the EU ETS, or the UN's International Civil Aviation Organisation's Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) scheme for international flights could cut 8pc, and improved air traffic management 6pc. A total of 15pc of the emissions cut comes from the impact on travel demand of these decarbonisation technologies.
How much will hydrogen contribute to your net zero goal?
Hydrogen has a huge role to play. Our Destination 2050 roadmap shows a potential 60mn t/yr CO2 emissions reduction, over 20pc. But we will not have hydrogen-powered and hybrid-electric aircraft enter into service until 2035. Until then, we remain dependent on carbon-based fuels. If technology is ready for hydrogen and electric aircraft, say around 2028, then it would still take a few years to be certified and fully available. That is why we say no hydrogen will come before 2035.
Can a fuel or kerosene tax drive CO2 reductions?
This is a big misconception. Sector-specific taxes for climate policy are ecologically and economically counterproductive. The taxes reduce the sector's capacity to invest and innovate and potentially shift CO2 emissions to other regions. Airlines are hugely cost-driven and tank where they get a better deal.
How much of a barrier is price when reducing emissions by SAFs?
SAFs are up to seven times pricier than traditional jet fuel. SAFs need to become more affordable to drive emission reductions right now. We need state intervention to make SAFs affordable and that is what we expect under the forthcoming European Commission aviation fuels initiative. Blending mandates are one of the measures being considered.
What do you want under EU blending mandates?
With limited SAF, and SAF feedstock availability, prematurely implemented blending mandates will lead to higher prices. They could also drive fuel tankering and lower sustainability standards as obligated parties seek to fulfil mandates and avoid penalties. You need a mature market before implementing. And feedstock should primarily come from Europe. If, and when, a mandate is in place, it should at least be harmonised at European level. National mandates do not make sense. It is also essential that Europe brings its SAF agenda to the UN level.
What percentage levels do you expect for a SAF mandate?
Potential production capacity and volume objectives must drive the percentage decision. The Destination 2050 roadmap shows a potential of 3mn t of SAFs by 2030, if the right legislation and policies are in place. Several EU countries — the Netherlands, France and Germany — are considering a mandate. Airlines need one solution for all Europe. Otherwise, it could jeopardise the integrity of the single aviation market, create distortion and carbon leakage.
Will road transport emission cuts be jeopardised if aviation monopolises SAFs?
Aviation has few or no alternatives to carbon-based fuels. Without SAFs, reducing emissions appears impossible. Cars, shipping and rail have alternatives. We will have to wait 10-15 years for electricity to take off in aviation and then only for smaller aircraft. Until that time, we need SAFs.
