EU aviation mulls green fuels, CO2 cuts

: Biofuels, Emissions, Oil products
21/03/08

The managing director of trade association Airlines for Europe (A4E), Thomas Reynaert spoke to Argus' Dafydd ab Iago on the policy and technology changes required to shift European aviation sector to net zero by 2050.

How important is the EU ETS to aviation CO2 cuts?

Short-term, and until new technologies come on market, cutting aviation emissions relies on market-based measures like the EU emissions trading system (ETS). Longer-term, net zero in 2050 for intra-EU flights might be achieved with close to no market-based measures.

How important are sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) in reaching net zero by 2050?

SAFs are a huge chunk, 34pc, of the entire emissions reduction potential by 2050. This excludes some 10pc in carbon offsets. The biggest emission reduction share comes from improved aircraft technology with 37pc. Economic measures such as the EU ETS, or the UN's International Civil Aviation Organisation's Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) scheme for international flights could cut 8pc, and improved air traffic management 6pc. A total of 15pc of the emissions cut comes from the impact on travel demand of these decarbonisation technologies.

How much will hydrogen contribute to your net zero goal?

Hydrogen has a huge role to play. Our Destination 2050 roadmap shows a potential 60mn t/yr CO2 emissions reduction, over 20pc. But we will not have hydrogen-powered and hybrid-electric aircraft enter into service until 2035. Until then, we remain dependent on carbon-based fuels. If technology is ready for hydrogen and electric aircraft, say around 2028, then it would still take a few years to be certified and fully available. That is why we say no hydrogen will come before 2035.

Can a fuel or kerosene tax drive CO2 reductions?

This is a big misconception. Sector-specific taxes for climate policy are ecologically and economically counterproductive. The taxes reduce the sector's capacity to invest and innovate and potentially shift CO2 emissions to other regions. Airlines are hugely cost-driven and tank where they get a better deal.

How much of a barrier is price when reducing emissions by SAFs?

SAFs are up to seven times pricier than traditional jet fuel. SAFs need to become more affordable to drive emission reductions right now. We need state intervention to make SAFs affordable and that is what we expect under the forthcoming European Commission aviation fuels initiative. Blending mandates are one of the measures being considered.

What do you want under EU blending mandates?

With limited SAF, and SAF feedstock availability, prematurely implemented blending mandates will lead to higher prices. They could also drive fuel tankering and lower sustainability standards as obligated parties seek to fulfil mandates and avoid penalties. You need a mature market before implementing. And feedstock should primarily come from Europe. If, and when, a mandate is in place, it should at least be harmonised at European level. National mandates do not make sense. It is also essential that Europe brings its SAF agenda to the UN level.

What percentage levels do you expect for a SAF mandate?

Potential production capacity and volume objectives must drive the percentage decision. The Destination 2050 roadmap shows a potential of 3mn t of SAFs by 2030, if the right legislation and policies are in place. Several EU countries — the Netherlands, France and Germany — are considering a mandate. Airlines need one solution for all Europe. Otherwise, it could jeopardise the integrity of the single aviation market, create distortion and carbon leakage.

Will road transport emission cuts be jeopardised if aviation monopolises SAFs?

Aviation has few or no alternatives to carbon-based fuels. Without SAFs, reducing emissions appears impossible. Cars, shipping and rail have alternatives. We will have to wait 10-15 years for electricity to take off in aviation and then only for smaller aircraft. Until that time, we need SAFs.

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

24/11/22

Cop: Singapore, Peru finalise carbon credit negotiation

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — Singapore and Peru have concluded negotiations on an implementation agreement for carbon credit co-operation aligned with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The countries "substantively concluded negotiations" on 21 November, said Singapore's ministry of trade and industry. The collaboration is aimed at unlocking additional mitigation activities and scaling solutions to advance both countries' climate ambitions. Under the implementation agreement, a framework for the generation and international transfer of Article 6-compliant carbon credits will be established. The framework will include criteria and procedures for transfer between both countries. Negotiators in Baku appear close to a final agreement on Article 6 , which aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. Article 6.2 already allows countries' governments to form bilateral agreements for carbon mitigation projects, the outcomes of which can be traded to contribute towards climate pledges. Mitigation refers to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions causing global warming. "When the agreement is signed, we look forward to the private sector utilising this agreement to develop carbon credits projects to actualise concrete environmental outcomes," said Singapore's minister for sustainability and environment Grace Fu. The minister is also one of the facilitators, alongside New Zealand, for negotiations on Article 6. Singapore also signed an implementation agreement with Zambia on 19 November at the summit. It has multiple carbon credit deals with other countries, but has only signed implementation agreements with Zambia, Ghana and Papua New Guinea so far. Singapore's National Climate Change Secretariat and the world's largest independent carbon credit registries Verra and Gold Standard last week released initial recommendations outlining the development of a carbon crediting protocol to implement Article 6.2. The recommendations are aimed at helping countries to use Article 6 to achieve their UN climate pledges and sustainable development goals, and provides recommendations on how governments can facilitate an effective Article 6.2 market. If such a framework is not established, "countries could take divergent approaches, which could hinder the implementation, scaling and integrity of co-operation under Article 6.2," said Verra. The protocol will be further developed and published once Cop 29 is concluded, said Verra. It will incorporate decisions from Cop 29 and will be implemented in 2025. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Pemex's lean Zama spending undercuts goals

24/11/21

Pemex's lean Zama spending undercuts goals

Mexico City, 21 November (Argus) — State-owned oil company Pemex's limited budget for developing one of Mexico's most-promising new oil fields is putting Mexico's crude production and refining goals at risk through 2030. First production from the Zama field will likely not start until at least 2028 instead of late next year, as forecast earlier, based on a timeline in a recent presentation from Pemex. Pemex continues to work on the basic engineering for the Zama field because of the lack of cash, staff of hydrocarbon regulator CNH said last week. The latest delay on Zama echoes criticism from when Pemex took over operating the field in 2022 that it did not have sufficient experience or funds to carry on with the project, said industry sources. "Unfortunately, the Pemex budget is always a shadowy mystery," said a person close to the project who asked not to be named. "There is no transparency or certainty regarding when they do and do not honor payment commitments." Zama is a shallow-water field unified in 2022 between Pemex area AE-152-Uchukil and the discovery made in 2017 by a consortium led by US oil company Talos Energy. Pemex holds 50.4pc of the Zama project while Talos and Slim's subsidiary Grupo Carso have 17.4pc, German company Wintershall Dea 17.4pc and British company Harbour Energy 12.4pc. The state-owned company expects to spend $370.8mn to develop Zama in 2025, 64pc less than the original $1.05bn budget proposed by Pemex for next year, according to data from CNH. The regulator cleared the change last week, but commissioners questioned the CNH staff about the new delays. Pemex's original development plan showed that the company forecast the first crude production by December 2025, with 2,000 b/d and about 4mn cf/d of gas. The original plan forecast Zama hitting peak production of 180,000 b/d in 2029, making it Mexico's second-largest crude producer, only under the Maloob field. President Claudia Sheinbaum and Pemex's new new chief executive Victor Rodriguez flagged the importance of shallow-water field Zama and ultra deep field Trion to support Pemex's oil production target of 1.8mn b/d in the upcoming six years in a presentation last week. Pemex's new plan is focused on feeding its own refining system rather than crude exports. The company expects to increase gasoline, diesel and jet fuel production by 343,000 b/d, according to the plan, but it did not give a timeline. Pemex produced 491,000 b/d of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in the first nine months of 2024. Mexico's proposed 2025 federal budget also shows lower spending for Zama, at Ps3.1bn ($154mn) for 2025, even less than the figure approved by CNH on 14 November. Neither Pemex not Talos responded to requests for additional comment. "Zama is the story of the triumph of ideology over practicality," said a Pemex source who asked not to be named. The state-owned company is studying how to bring in new investors to the project once congress approves secondary laws to implement recent energy reforms, the source said. But uncertainty over the legal framework and the general deterioration of Mexico's business climate will make this more difficult, the Pemex source added. The involvement of Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, who acquired 49.9pc of Talos Energy share in Zama last year, brought new hopes that work at Zama could finally accelerate. Instead, Slim's entrance slowed the project, as the new partner had to review the project, a former regulator who asked not to be named said. Talos Energy, the lead operator when the field was discovered over seven years ago, is now "frustrated" by the poor progress of the project. "We have Mexico, a great discovery in Zama, we're seven years into it, and still have not made a final investment decision on it," said Talos Energy interim chief executive Joseph Mills, in a conference call with investors last week. "So a lot of frustration there, as you can imagine." By Édgar Sígler Pemex 2024 crude output, throughput '000 b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil congress approves carbon market legislation

24/11/21

Brazil congress approves carbon market legislation

Sao Paulo, 21 November (Argus) — Brazil's lower house approved the creation of a regulated carbon market, which is seen as an essential tool for the country to meet its emissions reduction targets. The senate approved the bill earlier this month . It now awaits the president's signature to become law. The legislation, which has been the subject of legislative debates for more than three years, creates the Brazilian emissions trading system (SBCE) and stipulates that companies with emissions greater than 25,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e)/yr will be subject to the cap-and-trade system. Companies with emissions from 10,000-25,000 tCO2e/yr will need to report their emissions but will not be required to offset them. The market will help Brazil reach its new nationally determined contribution (NDC), according to vice president Geraldo Alckmin. The new NDC , released earlier this month, stipulates that Brazil will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 67pc from 2005 levels by 2035. Roughly 5,000 companies will be subject to the cap-and-trade system, covering about 15pc of Brazil's emissions, according to finance ministry estimates. The new market will go into effect over a six-year period in five phases. The first phase involves defining the rules that will govern the market, which can take up to two years. In the second phase, companies will be required to measure their emissions, and in the third phase report emissions and present a plan to monitor and reduce them. In the fourth phase, the trading market will begin operating and the first carbon allocation plan will go into effect. In the fifth and final phase, the market will be fully operational. As expected, the agriculture sector was excluded from the regulated market and will not have emissions-reductions targets. The law also exempts waste treatment companies, including sewage treatment and landfill operators if they can demonstrate the use of technologies that neutralize greenhouse gas emissions. The legislation also addresses regulations for the voluntary market, helping finance decarbonization projects in the agriculture and forestry sectors. Brazil has the potential to generate up to $100bn in revenues from the carbon market by 2030, according to a study by think tank ICC Brasil. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

24/11/21

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

24/11/21

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in more than 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more