The US has prepared a strong array of sanctions to deter Russia from invading Ukraine again, President Joe Biden said on 19 January.
The US sanctions are financial in nature, aiming to cut the largest Russian banks from the US dollar-based global financial system, but Russian oil and gas exports are a potential target too. "Everybody talks about how Russia has control over the the energy supply that Europe absorbs," Biden said. "Well, guess what? That money that they earned from that makes about 45pc of their economy. I don't see that as a one way street."
The US course of action also depends on what steps Moscow will take, Biden said at a press conference marking his first year in office. "It is one thing if it is a minor incursion...," Biden said. "But if they actually do what they are capable of doing with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia."
Washington has accused Moscow of placing more than 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, and preparing to station troops in Belarus next month under the guise of a military exercise, in preparation for a ground invasion of Ukraine. Russia denies plans to invade Ukraine.
Despite the threat of sanctions, Biden said he expected Russia to still take some form of military action against Ukraine, prompting the White House to later add a clarification to his remarks saying they cover "cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics", which will be met with "a decisive, reciprocal, and united response".
Biden said he still hopes that diplomacy could lower the tensions. Direct US-Russian talks and broader discussions with NATO allies earlier this month accomplished little, but US and Russian foreign ministers plan to meet in Geneva, Switzerland on 21 January to continue negotiations.
In what Moscow is likely to see as a positive signal, Biden indicated that he is willing to compromise on "security guarantees" demanded by Putin — the Kremlin's code for non-interference on its western borders. Moscow's demand for a written guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO is a non-starter, but Ukraine "is not very likely" to join Nato soon, "based on much more work they have to do in terms of democracy and a few other things," Biden said, citing opposition from some NATO members to Ukraine's admission.
