Biden outlines new Russia sanctions threat

: Crude oil, Natural gas
22/01/20

The US has prepared a strong array of sanctions to deter Russia from invading Ukraine again, President Joe Biden said on 19 January.

The US sanctions are financial in nature, aiming to cut the largest Russian banks from the US dollar-based global financial system, but Russian oil and gas exports are a potential target too. "Everybody talks about how Russia has control over the the energy supply that Europe absorbs," Biden said. "Well, guess what? That money that they earned from that makes about 45pc of their economy. I don't see that as a one way street."

The US course of action also depends on what steps Moscow will take, Biden said at a press conference marking his first year in office. "It is one thing if it is a minor incursion...," Biden said. "But if they actually do what they are capable of doing with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia."

Washington has accused Moscow of placing more than 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, and preparing to station troops in Belarus next month under the guise of a military exercise, in preparation for a ground invasion of Ukraine. Russia denies plans to invade Ukraine.

Despite the threat of sanctions, Biden said he expected Russia to still take some form of military action against Ukraine, prompting the White House to later add a clarification to his remarks saying they cover "cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics", which will be met with "a decisive, reciprocal, and united response".

Biden said he still hopes that diplomacy could lower the tensions. Direct US-Russian talks and broader discussions with NATO allies earlier this month accomplished little, but US and Russian foreign ministers plan to meet in Geneva, Switzerland on 21 January to continue negotiations.

In what Moscow is likely to see as a positive signal, Biden indicated that he is willing to compromise on "security guarantees" demanded by Putin — the Kremlin's code for non-interference on its western borders. Moscow's demand for a written guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO is a non-starter, but Ukraine "is not very likely" to join Nato soon, "based on much more work they have to do in terms of democracy and a few other things," Biden said, citing opposition from some NATO members to Ukraine's admission.

By Haik Gugarats

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24/11/22

Cop: Brazil eyes $300bn/yr for climate finance goal

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — Brazil has set out a suggestion of "at least" $300bn/yr in climate finance to be provided by developed countries to developing nations. Brazilian representatives set out their proposal today, in response to a draft text on a new climate finance goal. Brazil's proposal of $300bn/yr in climate finance by 2030 and $390bn/yr by 2035 are in line with the recommendations of a UN-mandated expert group. Negotiations at Cop are continuing late into the evening of the official last day of the conference, with no final texts in sight. Discussions centre around the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — the climate financing that will be made available to developing countries in the coming years to help them reduce emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change. The presidency draft text released this morning put the figure at $250bn/yr by 2035, with a call for "all actors" to work towards a stretch goal of $1.3tn/yr. Representatives of developing countries have reacted angrily to the figure put forward in the text, saying it is far too low. Brazil's proposal appears to call for all of the $300bn-$390bn to be made up of direct public financing, which could then mobilise further funding to reach the $1.3tn/yr. It was inspired by the findings of a UN report, Brazil said. The UN-backed independent high-level group on climate finance today said that the $250bn/yr figure was "too low," and recommended the higher $300bn-390bn/yr goal. Brazil's ask would be a significant step up in the required public financing. The $250bn/yr target includes direct public financing and mobilised private financing, and potentially includes contributions from both developed and developing countries. Wealthier developing countries have been hesitant to see their climate financing fall in this category, which they say should be made up exclusively of developed country money, in line with the Paris Agreement. But $300bn/yr would represent an increase in ambition, Brazil said, while the $250bn/yr called for in the draft text would be very similar to the $100bn/yr goal set in 2009, after taking into account inflation. Delegates at Cop look set to continue discussions into the night. A plenary session planned for late in the evening, which would have allowed parties to express their positions in public, has been cancelled, suggesting groups still have differences to hammer out. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Drafts point to trade-off on finance, fossil fuels

24/11/22

Cop: Drafts point to trade-off on finance, fossil fuels

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — The new draft on the climate finance goal from the UN Cop 29 climate summit presidency has developed nations contributing $250bn/yr by 2035, while language on fossil fuels has been dropped, indicating work towards a compromise on these two central issues. There is no mention of fossil fuels in either the new draft text on the global stocktake — which follows up the outcome of Cop 28 last year, including "transitioning away" from fossil fuels — or in the new draft for the climate finance goal. Developed countries wanted a reference to moving away from fossil fuels included, indicating that not having one would be a red line. The new draft text on the climate finance goal would mark a substantial compromise for developing countries, with non-profit WRI noting that this is "the bridging text". Parties are negotiating the next iteration of the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing nations over 2020-25 — known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). The new draft sets out a figure of $250bn/yr by 2035, "from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". It also notes that developed countries will "take the lead". It sets out that the finance could come from multilateral development banks (MDBs) too. "It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior, smaller goal... $250bn will require even more ambition and extraordinary reach," a US official said. "This goal will need to be supported by ambitious bilateral action, MDB contributions and efforts to better mobilise private finance, among other critical factors," the official added. India had indicated earlier this week that the country was seeking around $600bn/yr for a public finance layer from developed countries. Developing countries had been asking for $1.3 trillion/yr in climate finance from developed countries, a sum which the new text instead calls for "all actors" to work toward. The draft text acknowledges the need to "enable the scaling up of financing… from all public and private sources" to that figure. On the contributor base — which developed countries have long pushed to expand — the text indicates that climate finance contributions from developing countries could supplement the finance goal. It is unclear how this language will land with developing nations. China yesterday reiterated that "the voluntary support" of the global south is not part of the goal. The global stocktake draft largely focuses on the initiatives set out by the Cop 29 presidency, on enhancing power grids and energy storage, though it does stress the "urgent need for accelerated implementation of domestic mitigation measures". It dropped a previous option, opposed by Saudi Arabia, that mentioned actions aimed at "transitioning away from fossil fuels". Mitigation, or cutting emissions, and climate finance have been the overriding issues at Cop 29. Developing countries have long said they cannot decarbonise or implement an energy transition without adequate finance. Developed countries are calling for substantially stronger global action on emissions reduction. By Georgia Gratton and Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Pemex's lean Zama spending undercuts goals

24/11/21

Pemex's lean Zama spending undercuts goals

Mexico City, 21 November (Argus) — State-owned oil company Pemex's limited budget for developing one of Mexico's most-promising new oil fields is putting Mexico's crude production and refining goals at risk through 2030. First production from the Zama field will likely not start until at least 2028 instead of late next year, as forecast earlier, based on a timeline in a recent presentation from Pemex. Pemex continues to work on the basic engineering for the Zama field because of the lack of cash, staff of hydrocarbon regulator CNH said last week. The latest delay on Zama echoes criticism from when Pemex took over operating the field in 2022 that it did not have sufficient experience or funds to carry on with the project, said industry sources. "Unfortunately, the Pemex budget is always a shadowy mystery," said a person close to the project who asked not to be named. "There is no transparency or certainty regarding when they do and do not honor payment commitments." Zama is a shallow-water field unified in 2022 between Pemex area AE-152-Uchukil and the discovery made in 2017 by a consortium led by US oil company Talos Energy. Pemex holds 50.4pc of the Zama project while Talos and Slim's subsidiary Grupo Carso have 17.4pc, German company Wintershall Dea 17.4pc and British company Harbour Energy 12.4pc. The state-owned company expects to spend $370.8mn to develop Zama in 2025, 64pc less than the original $1.05bn budget proposed by Pemex for next year, according to data from CNH. The regulator cleared the change last week, but commissioners questioned the CNH staff about the new delays. Pemex's original development plan showed that the company forecast the first crude production by December 2025, with 2,000 b/d and about 4mn cf/d of gas. The original plan forecast Zama hitting peak production of 180,000 b/d in 2029, making it Mexico's second-largest crude producer, only under the Maloob field. President Claudia Sheinbaum and Pemex's new new chief executive Victor Rodriguez flagged the importance of shallow-water field Zama and ultra deep field Trion to support Pemex's oil production target of 1.8mn b/d in the upcoming six years in a presentation last week. Pemex's new plan is focused on feeding its own refining system rather than crude exports. The company expects to increase gasoline, diesel and jet fuel production by 343,000 b/d, according to the plan, but it did not give a timeline. Pemex produced 491,000 b/d of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in the first nine months of 2024. Mexico's proposed 2025 federal budget also shows lower spending for Zama, at Ps3.1bn ($154mn) for 2025, even less than the figure approved by CNH on 14 November. Neither Pemex not Talos responded to requests for additional comment. "Zama is the story of the triumph of ideology over practicality," said a Pemex source who asked not to be named. The state-owned company is studying how to bring in new investors to the project once congress approves secondary laws to implement recent energy reforms, the source said. But uncertainty over the legal framework and the general deterioration of Mexico's business climate will make this more difficult, the Pemex source added. The involvement of Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, who acquired 49.9pc of Talos Energy share in Zama last year, brought new hopes that work at Zama could finally accelerate. Instead, Slim's entrance slowed the project, as the new partner had to review the project, a former regulator who asked not to be named said. Talos Energy, the lead operator when the field was discovered over seven years ago, is now "frustrated" by the poor progress of the project. "We have Mexico, a great discovery in Zama, we're seven years into it, and still have not made a final investment decision on it," said Talos Energy interim chief executive Joseph Mills, in a conference call with investors last week. "So a lot of frustration there, as you can imagine." By Édgar Sígler Pemex 2024 crude output, throughput '000 b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

24/11/21

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost a third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high

24/11/21

Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high

London, 21 November (Argus) — Investment funds' net long TTF position on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) jumped to a new all-time high earlier this month, outstripping the previous record in late August. The latest weekly data from Ice show investment funds' net long TTF position shot up to a new record at just under 273TWh by 15 November, topping the previous all-time high of roughly 268TWh in the week ending 30 August , revised data show. After peaking in August, the position dropped to 192TWh on 20 September, and held broadly stable before jumping 33.6TWh in the week ending 25 October . TTF prices rose in the following two weeks, but funds trimmed their net long position to around 226TWh on 8 November ( see graph ). But in the most recent week of data from Ice, investment funds' net long position shot up to just under 273TWh by 15 November, a new record high. Over the same period of 8-15 November, The Argus TTF front-month contract rose by more than 9pc, and there were similarly large moves for the first-quarter 2025 and summer 2025 contracts. The calendar 2025 price was also up by 8pc ( see table ). Significant price volatility in recent trading sessions has also prompted Ice to increase margin rates by around 20pc on all contracts out to September 2025 , with smaller increases further down the curve. Austrian incumbent OMV announced this week Russia's Gazprom would halt its contractual supply from 16 November , prompting sizeable day-on-day price moves across Europe and possibly encouraging investment funds to go longer and capitalise on the volatility. But central European flows have changed only slightly since then, with roughly the same amount of Russian gas entering the region. Higher TTF prices have also caused LNG diversions from Asia to Europe in recent days, which reached double digits on 19 November . Such a large net long position suggests investment funds may still expect a tight European gas balance this winter. Record-low freight rates have brought the cost of shipping US LNG to Asia closer to the cost of the shorter US-Europe route, meaning European prices have to rise sufficiently high enough to offset this and close the inter-basin arbitrage again in order to attract uncommitted cargoes. Cold weather has also prompted EU firms to draw down storage stocks heavily so far this month . Aggregate EU withdrawals averaged just under 3 TWh/d on 1-15 November, four times the 756 GWh/d average for that period in 2018-22 and sharply contrasting the 965 GWh/d of net injections across the bloc on 1-15 November 2023. Unlike investment funds, the two other major categories of Ice market participant — commercial undertakings and investment/credit firms — boosted their net short positions by a combined 53TWh, leaving the latter with nearly 200TWh in net shorts, the highest since mid-September. Despite significant storage withdrawals, commercial undertakings ‘risk reduct' contracts — generally used for hedging — in the week to 15 November jumped by just under 30TWh to nearly 211TWh, the highest since 24 December 2021. Some of that increase may have been driven by a need to hedge the LNG cargoes diverted to Europe in recent weeks as European hub prices rose. A 9TWh increase in the net long position of commercial undertakings' other contracts slightly moderated the overall net short increase. The gross short and long positions of commercial undertakings totalled 1.95PWh, nearly twice as large as the investments funds' 646TWh and investment/credit firms' 421TWh combined. By Brendan A'Hearn Argus TTF prices 8-15 Nov €/MWh Dec-24 1Q25 Sum 25 Win 25 Cal 25 8-Nov 42.08 42.31 40.81 38.41 40.65 15-Nov 46.02 46.12 44.12 41.00 43.98 % change 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.7 8.2 Argus Net positions on ICE TTF TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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