Nigeria sees significant gasoline output by November

Nigeria's government said "significant production increases" of gasoline from the 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt and 650,000 b/d Dangote refineries are "expected from November", which would have ramifications for balances in the region and in northwest Europe.

First gasoline from Dangote is expected in September, said the office of Nigeria's co-ordinating minister of the economy.

Industry sources told Argus that Dangote obtained regulatory approval to start its 247,000 b/d fluid catalytic cracker and 27,000 b/d alkylation units in April and May, respectively, but that the refiner seems to have deliberately delayed start-up of these secondary units. This is because it plans to sell much of its gasoline to the domestic market, where government intervention through state-owned NNPC continues to curtail prices.

Sources at Port Harcourt told Argus that the restart of a 60,000 b/d section that has been delayed several times since April 2023 is on course to happen by 31 August. The refinery received 450,000 bl of domestic Bonny Light crude in the first half of July, the second supply of feedstock after 475,000 bl arrived between 28 December and 18 January.

Nigeria's downstream regulator approved the movement of the crude from tank to refinery at the end of July, sources said.

NNPC's trading subsidiary applied last week for permits to sell Port Harcourt kerosine and diesel domestically and permits to export naphtha and fuel oil, according to industry sources. The catalytic reformer and the reformer feed unit for the 60,000 b/d section will start early in October for upgrading of naphtha, sources said.

Italian engineering firm Maire Tecnimont won a $1.5bn contract in April 2021 to restore Port Harcourt to 90pc of its nameplate capacity. It said in June that the project was 84.6pc complete, with procurement at 99pc, engineering at 98pc and construction at 73pc.

The co-ordinating minister's office also said a programme for NNPC to sell crude to Dangote in the local naira currency will start on 1 October. NNPC has supplied Dangote with crude since the refinery started up in December 2023, but payments have so far been in dollars. The government said the programme will offer a "lifeline to Dangote refinery", which has complained about the dollar prices and available volumes of Nigerian crude grades it has been able to buy.

Sources told Argus that NNPC sold Dangote more than 3.6mn bl of crude in July, including a 720,000 bl cargo of Brass River — the first of that grade.

A government source told Argus today that details of the NNPC-Dangote programme will not be disclosed until after its implementation in September. But it could be structured as a crude-for-gasoline swap, denominated in US dollars and reflecting international market prices but settled in the equivalent naira amounts. This would allay Dangote's concerns about dollar expenditure, guarantee sales and ensure market value for gasoline sold domestically. It would also remove NNPC's need to import gasoline, with Dangote's capacity alone exceeding Nigeria's domestic demand.

NNPC has been Nigeria's sole importer of gasoline since 2017, with the exception of about eight cargoes received by independents in 2023. After years of crude-for-gasoline swap deals, NNPC has been importing on a cash basis since November 2023, mainly from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub in northwest Europe. Nigeria is the largest consumer of gasoline in west Africa, and a key outlet for excess European production.

By Adebiyi Olusolape