Middle East tensions ease after Israel-Hezbollah clash

The risk of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East increased with Lebanon's Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah and Israel trading large-scale blows on 25 August. But tensions eased later in the day as Hezbollah's leader signalled the end of the "first phase" of their response to the elimination of its top military commander last month.

"It is an initial response," Hezbollah's secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised speech, adding that they'll assess results to see if the intended goal of the attack is satisfactory. "We consider the response to the assassination of Fuad Shukr has been completed."

"If the result is not sufficient, we will reserve the right to respond until a time we choose. Now the country [Lebanon] can rest and people can return to their homes and lives," Nasrallah said.

He noted the group's main target was a military intelligence base about 110km inside Israeli territory, the deepest attack yet and just 1.5km north of Tel Aviv.

The risk of a wider conflict, which could draw Iran in, pushed oil prices up, especially with Israel carrying out what it said is a "pre-emptive strike" against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon less than an hour before the latter launched its operation.

As of 08:20 GMT the Ice front-month October Brent contract was at $79.97/bl, higher by 95¢/bl from its settlement on 23 August when the contract ended $79.02/bl.

Israel's assault was based, Israeli officials said, on intelligence that Hezbollah was about to fire thousands of missiles at northern Israel, as well as drones at a key intelligence centre just north of Tel Aviv in retaliation for the killing of its commander in July.

Nasrallah admitted the pre-emptive strike noting that, "[Israel's] focus was to reveal this operation in advance, and [say] that Israel took proactive action and thwarted the operation."

"This narrative is full of lies. But if this narrative helps calm the madness of the Israelis, then there is nothing wrong with it," he said, adding that the group had been able to carry out its attack "as planned," denying statements by the Israeli military that its pre-emptive strikes had stopped a wider attack.

There was no damage to any Israeli military base, Israel's military spokesperson brigadier general Daniel Hagari said. Israel's foreign minister Israel Katz stated that the country was not seeking a full-scale war, although Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning, suggesting that further action might be forthcoming.

Stalling the ceasefire

The timing of these strikes coincided with high-stakes negotiations in Egypt's Cairo aimed at brokering a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The conflict has dragged on for 10 months and pushed the region to the brink of a wider war multiple times, with Iran and Israel directly targeting each other for the first time in April.

The talks have not achieved a breakthrough, with Hamas claiming that Israel has "set new conditions for a ceasefire" and "is still procrastinating." The group also accused the US administration of President Joe Biden of "planting false hope by talking about an imminent agreement for electoral purposes."

One key sticking point in the continuing talks mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar is Netanyahu's insistence on the Israeli presence in the so-called Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow stretch of land along Gaza's southern border with Egypt.

By Bachar Halabi