Middle East tensions ease after Israel-Hezbollah clash

: Crude oil
24/08/26

The risk of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East increased with Lebanon's Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah and Israel trading large-scale blows on 25 August. But tensions eased later in the day as Hezbollah's leader signalled the end of the "first phase" of their response to the elimination of its top military commander last month.

"It is an initial response," Hezbollah's secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised speech, adding that they'll assess results to see if the intended goal of the attack is satisfactory. "We consider the response to the assassination of Fuad Shukr has been completed."

"If the result is not sufficient, we will reserve the right to respond until a time we choose. Now the country [Lebanon] can rest and people can return to their homes and lives," Nasrallah said.

He noted the group's main target was a military intelligence base about 110km inside Israeli territory, the deepest attack yet and just 1.5km north of Tel Aviv.

The risk of a wider conflict, which could draw Iran in, pushed oil prices up, especially with Israel carrying out what it said is a "pre-emptive strike" against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon less than an hour before the latter launched its operation.

As of 08:20 GMT the Ice front-month October Brent contract was at $79.97/bl, higher by 95¢/bl from its settlement on 23 August when the contract ended $79.02/bl.

Israel's assault was based, Israeli officials said, on intelligence that Hezbollah was about to fire thousands of missiles at northern Israel, as well as drones at a key intelligence centre just north of Tel Aviv in retaliation for the killing of its commander in July.

Nasrallah admitted the pre-emptive strike noting that, "[Israel's] focus was to reveal this operation in advance, and [say] that Israel took proactive action and thwarted the operation."

"This narrative is full of lies. But if this narrative helps calm the madness of the Israelis, then there is nothing wrong with it," he said, adding that the group had been able to carry out its attack "as planned," denying statements by the Israeli military that its pre-emptive strikes had stopped a wider attack.

There was no damage to any Israeli military base, Israel's military spokesperson brigadier general Daniel Hagari said. Israel's foreign minister Israel Katz stated that the country was not seeking a full-scale war, although Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning, suggesting that further action might be forthcoming.

Stalling the ceasefire

The timing of these strikes coincided with high-stakes negotiations in Egypt's Cairo aimed at brokering a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The conflict has dragged on for 10 months and pushed the region to the brink of a wider war multiple times, with Iran and Israel directly targeting each other for the first time in April.

The talks have not achieved a breakthrough, with Hamas claiming that Israel has "set new conditions for a ceasefire" and "is still procrastinating." The group also accused the US administration of President Joe Biden of "planting false hope by talking about an imminent agreement for electoral purposes."

One key sticking point in the continuing talks mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar is Netanyahu's insistence on the Israeli presence in the so-called Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow stretch of land along Gaza's southern border with Egypt.

By Bachar Halabi

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24/12/12

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

London, 12 December (Argus) — The recent decision by Opec+ members to delay a planned output increase has "materially reduced" a potential supply surplus next year, the IEA said today. Opec+ producers earlier this month pushed back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. Still, the oil market in 2025 is still likely to be significantly oversupplied, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report (OMR), given persistent overproduction by some Opec+ members, strong supply growth from outside the alliance and modest global oil demand growth. The Paris-based agency's base case forecasts show supply exceeding demand by 950,000 b/d next year, even if all Opec+ cuts remain in place. The supply surplus would increase to 1.4mn b/d if alliance members start increasing output from April as planned, the IEA said. This is far from guaranteed. Opec+ has already delayed its plan to increase output three times and continues to say a decision to unwind will depend on market conditions. While the IEA expects oil demand growth to remain subdued next year, its latest forecasts show a slightly higher outlook than in its previous report . The agency revised up its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 90,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d, largely because of China's recently announced economic stimulus measures. This would see global consumption rise to 103.9mn b/d. But the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 80,000 b/d, to 840,000 b/d, mostly because of "weaker-than-expected non-OECD deliveries in countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia." It said non-OECD oil demand growth in the third quarter, at 320,000 b/d, was the lowest since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The IEA said lacklustre demand growth this year and next reflects "a generally sub-par macroeconomic environment and changing patterns of oil use." Increases will be driven by petrochemical feedstocks, and demand for transport fuels "will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological progress." On supply, the IEA downgraded its growth estimates for 2025 by 110,000 b/d to 1.9mn b/d. Most of this will come from non-Opec+ countries such as the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency nudged lower its supply forecasts for this year, by 10,000 b/d to 630,000 b/d. The IEA said global observed oil stocks declined by 39.3mn bl in October, led by an "exceptionally sharp" fall in oil product inventories due to low refinery activity coupled with higher demand. It said preliminary data show a rebound in global inventories in November. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec trims oil demand growth forecasts again

24/12/11

Opec trims oil demand growth forecasts again

London, 11 December (Argus) — Opec has revised down its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a fifth time in a row. In its final Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the year, the producer group has cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 1.45mn b/d. This is entirely driven by a downgrade in its demand projection for the Middle East. From the start of this year right up until July, Opec had been forecasting global demand growth of 1.85mn b/d for next year. The group has also lowered its demand growth forecast for this year — by 210,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d, mostly driven by reduced growth projections in the Middle East, India and the Americas. Up until July, Opec had been predicting that demand would increase by 2.25mn b/d this year. Opec's downward demand growth revisions slightly close the gap with other forecasters such as the IEA and EIA, which project much lower levels of consumption growth. The IEA sees oil demand growing by 920,000 b/d this year and by 990,000 b/d next year, while the EIA projects 890,000 b/d and 1.29mn b/d, respectively. On supply, Opec has kept its non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecast for next year unchanged at 1.11mn b/d. But it has upgraded its estimate for this year by 50,000 b/d to 1.28mn b/d, underpinned by stronger-than-expected US production. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — increased by 323,000 b/d to 40.665mn b/d in November, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . The call on Opec+ crude remains 42.4mn b/d for this year and 42.7mn b/d for next year, according to the MOMR. Opec+ producers agreed earlier this month to delay a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway to end new international fossil fuel financing

24/12/10

Norway to end new international fossil fuel financing

London, 10 December (Argus) — Norway will from January no longer provide public finance for new unabated international fossil fuel projects, in line with a commitment it made in December last year. Norway's export credit agency, Eksfin, provides most of the country's financing for overseas fossil fuel projects. Eksfin provided between 8.78bn Norwegian kroner and 10.98bn NKr ($786mn- 983mn) over July 2021-June 2023 for fossil fuel projects, civil society organisation Oil Change International found. Norway signed the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in 2023. The CETP aims to shift international public finance "from the unabated fossil fuel energy sector to the clean energy transition". The CETP, which now has 41 signatories, was launched at Cop 26 in 2021, with an initial 39 signatories including most G7 nations and several development banks. Signatories commit to ending new direct public support for overseas unabated fossil fuel projects within a year of joining. Abatement, under the CETP, refers to "a high level of emissions reductions" through operational carbon capture technology or "other effective technologies". It does not count offsets or credits. Australia, which also signed the CETP at Cop 28, said last week that it would no longer finance overseas fossil fuel projects. "Norway is also working to introduce common regulations for financing fossil energy within the international main agreement for state export financing in the OECD", the Norwegian government said today. Norway's policy "helps increase momentum" for an OECD deal that could end $41bn/yr in oil and gas export financing, Oil Change said. Countries are involved in "final negotiations" on the deal today, Oil Change added. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ crude output rises in November

24/12/10

Opec+ crude output rises in November

London, 10 December (Argus) — Opec+ members subject to targets increased their collective crude output by 150,000 b/d in November, marking the alliance's first monthly production rise since March, Argus estimates. Although output increased to 33.55mn b/d last month, it was still 3.97mn b/d below the level the group was producing at when it announced the first of its current round of cuts in October 2022. It was also 300,000 b/d below the group's collective production target for the month. November's increase was mainly driven by Kazakhstan, where output was boosted by the restart of the 400,000 b/d Kashagan project following maintenance in October. Kazakh production rose by 220,000 b/d to 1.56mn b/d last month, leaving the country 90,000 b/d above its official production target. Kazakhstan has been one of the group's biggest overproducers this year, alongside Iraq and Russia. It has repeatedly pledged to compensate for exceeding its targets but has so far largely failed to deliver. Iraq — the group's largest overproducer — has made progress in recent months in reducing its production. Its output in November was again 20,000 b/d below its target at 3.98mn b/d, the same as in October. But it will need further reductions if it is to fully compensate for past overproduction. Compliance with output targets is a key measure of group discipline and crucial to the success of Opec+ production policy. Argus calculates that eight members of the coalition have produced above their targets on average between January and October of this year. Opec+ producers agreed earlier this month to push back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts by three months to April 2025 and agreed to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. Last month's production increase by the entire group — including quota-exempt Iran, Libya and Venezuela — was 350,000 b/d, with total output at 39.03mn b/d. This was mainly driven by Libya, which increased its output by 160,000 b/d to 1.24mn b/d as it continued to ramp up after emerging from a partial oil blockade in early October. Iran's output rebounded by 60,000 b/d to 3.36mn b/d. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production mn b/d Nov Oct* Nov target† ± target Opec 9 21.12 21.18 21.23 -0.11 Non-Opec 9 12.43 12.22 12.62 -0.19 Total 33.55 33.40 33.85 -0.30 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Nov Oct* Nov target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.93 8.95 8.98 -0.05 Iraq 3.98 3.98 4.00 -0.02 Kuwait 2.40 2.43 2.41 -0.01 UAE 2.97 2.93 2.91 0.06 Algeria 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.00 Nigeria 1.40 1.42 1.50 -0.10 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.25 0.27 0.28 -0.03 Gabon 0.22 0.23 0.17 0.05 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.12 21.18 21.23 -0.11 Iran 3.36 3.30 na na Libya 1.24 1.08 na na Venezuela 0.88 0.90 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.60 26.46 na na *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Nov Oct* Nov target† ± target Russia 8.97 8.97 8.98 -0.01 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.00 Azerbaijan 0.48 0.48 0.55 -0.07 Kazakhstan 1.56 1.34 1.47 0.09 Malaysia 0.33 0.33 0.40 -0.07 Bahrain 0.17 0.18 0.20 -0.03 Brunei 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.06 0.06 0.12 -0.06 Total non-Opec 12.43 12.22 12.62 -0.19 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Assad’s ouster removes key outlet for Iran’s crude

24/12/10

Assad’s ouster removes key outlet for Iran’s crude

Dubai, 10 December (Argus) — The removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from power over the weekend has not only dealt a major blow to Iran and its designs for the Levant region, but it has also eliminated a critically important outlet for Tehran's sanctions-hit oil. Long considered Iran's top Arab ally, Assad enjoyed significant military and economic support from Tehran over the past decade, as Iran saw him as the focal point for its regional influence. Syria also provided the main supply routes to Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, the crown jewel in Iran's so-called ‘Axis of Resistance'. Part of Iran's assistance was in the form of shipments of crude and refined oil products to help Assad's regime meet fuel demand in the areas under its control. Once a 600,000 b/d-plus producer, Syria's crude output has been on the decline over the past three decades. Just before the start of the civil war in 2011, production had already slipped below 400,000 b/d. Today, it is less than 100,000 b/d, and only around 16,000 b/d of that comes from fields in areas under the former government's control. This left Assad's regime — itself restricted by western sanctions — critically short of crude to feed its two refineries in Banias and Homs, even though both have been operating below capacity because of damage sustained during the civil war. Iran helped plug the gap by sending crude and products to the 140,000 b/d Banias refinery on Syria's Mediterranean coast on an ad hoc basis. Iranian crude exports to Syria averaged around 55,000 b/d in January-November this year, down from 80,000 b/d in 2023 and 72,000 b/d in 2022, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler. Vortexa puts shipments higher at 60,000-70,000 b/d so far this year and 90,000 b/d in 2023. Iran has also been sending around 10,000-20,000 b/d of refined products to Syria in recent years, according to consultancy FGE. Wait and see Iran's oil exports to Syria have mostly been in the form of grants to support the Assad regime. The government's collapse could put an end to these flows for the time being, while Tehran takes a wait-and-see approach to what comes next in Syria. The first sign of that came over the weekend when the Iran-flagged Lotus , which left Kharg Island on 11 November destined for Banias, reversed course just as it was about to enter the Suez Canal. The tanker is now headed back through the Red Sea without specifying a destination. Although supplies to Syria make up a very small share of Iran's overall 1.6mn-1.8mn b/d of crude exports, Tehran may not want to lose it as an outlet for good, given the difficulties of finding a replacement while sanctions remain in place. "The flow will stop, at least for the time being," said Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at FGE. "But Iran will want to continue supplying this oil to Syria, or else it may be forced to cut production by anywhere between 50,000-100,000 b/d if it is unable to ultimately place those barrels in China." Argus estimates Iran produced around 3.33mn b/d in September-November. Alternatively, Iran could opt to build the volumes it holds offshore in floating storage. "We usually see the same tankers shuttling between Iran and Syria," according to Vortexa's senior oil analyst Armen Azizian. "If that trade subsides, we could see some of these tankers unemployed or put into floating storage, which would rise, at least in the short-term," he said. Lotus is one of these tankers, having made the trip to Syria and back five times in 2023, and twice so far in 2024. The crude cargo it is carrying now "could be returned to Iran and put into onshore tanks or go into floating storage off Iran," Azizian said. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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