Australian cattle herd to contract: MLA

Australia's cattle herd is forecast to contract slightly at the end of 2024 by 1.4pc from a year earlier to 30.2mn head, a reduction of over 400,000, according to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA). This follows three years of robust growth driven by favourable seasonal conditions.

Poor autumn and winter weather conditions in Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia states are expected to affect herd numbers, while operations in the north of country continue to thrive with another productive season, supporting solid calf marking rates.

The herd is expected to fall by another 2pc to 29.5mn head in 2025 and a further 3pc in 2026 to 28.6mn head, according to the MLA's September update Industry Projections 2024. A significant factor in these falls is the turnover of cows used to restock the Australian herd, as producers adjust their historically high stocking rates. These cows entering the slaughter system are contributing to the elevated female slaughter ratio, which was 53pc as of June (see graph).

The adult cattle slaughter rate is forecast to increase by 16.4pc in 2024, reaching 8.2mn head, the highest level since 2019. This rise is attributed to the herd's maturity rather than bad weather conditions. MLA forecasts a further 2.5pc increase to 8.4mn head in 2025 , with a fall of 4.8pc to just below 8mn head in 2026.

Beef production is projected to rise by 18pc in 2024 to 2.53mn t, marking the highest volume since 2015. This is expected to peak at a record 2.55mn t in 2025 before falling by 4.3pc to 2.44mn t in 2026. Increased average carcase weights, now 20-30kg higher than a decade ago, will contribute to these record production volumes without requiring record slaughter levels. A continuing beef shortage in the US, driven by drought, is anticipated to boost global demand for Australian beef, particularly in the US and key northeast Asian markets where Australia competes with the US for market share.

Australian live cattle exports are set to exceed expectations, driven by increased supplies, competitive prices and a gradual recovery in demand from key markets such as Indonesia and Vietnam, according to MLA. But a downturn in China's dairy sector — Australia's third-largest market for live cattle and the largest for breeder cattle — has led to reduced demand for Australian dairy breeder cattle, with average values falling substantially over the past year.

Australia's feedlot capacity has hit an all-time high, exceeding 1.4mn head. But the majority of the herd remains grass-fed, so feedlot cattle represent a smaller share of overall production. Grain-fed cattle accounted for 35pc of total beef production during April-June, slightly below the 10-year average of 38pc. With supply constraints in the US affecting its traditional markets in Japan and South Korea, Australian grain-fed beef has a growing opportunity to not only fill this gap but also make inroads into the US market.

By Amy Phillips

Australian cattle slaughter rate (head)