Australian cattle herd to contract: MLA
Australia's cattle herd is forecast to contract slightly at the end of 2024 by 1.4pc from a year earlier to 30.2mn head, a reduction of over 400,000, according to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA). This follows three years of robust growth driven by favourable seasonal conditions.
Poor autumn and winter weather conditions in Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia states are expected to affect herd numbers, while operations in the north of country continue to thrive with another productive season, supporting solid calf marking rates.
The herd is expected to fall by another 2pc to 29.5mn head in 2025 and a further 3pc in 2026 to 28.6mn head, according to the MLA's September update Industry Projections 2024. A significant factor in these falls is the turnover of cows used to restock the Australian herd, as producers adjust their historically high stocking rates. These cows entering the slaughter system are contributing to the elevated female slaughter ratio, which was 53pc as of June (see graph).
The adult cattle slaughter rate is forecast to increase by 16.4pc in 2024, reaching 8.2mn head, the highest level since 2019. This rise is attributed to the herd's maturity rather than bad weather conditions. MLA forecasts a further 2.5pc increase to 8.4mn head in 2025 , with a fall of 4.8pc to just below 8mn head in 2026.
Beef production is projected to rise by 18pc in 2024 to 2.53mn t, marking the highest volume since 2015. This is expected to peak at a record 2.55mn t in 2025 before falling by 4.3pc to 2.44mn t in 2026. Increased average carcase weights, now 20-30kg higher than a decade ago, will contribute to these record production volumes without requiring record slaughter levels. A continuing beef shortage in the US, driven by drought, is anticipated to boost global demand for Australian beef, particularly in the US and key northeast Asian markets where Australia competes with the US for market share.
Australian live cattle exports are set to exceed expectations, driven by increased supplies, competitive prices and a gradual recovery in demand from key markets such as Indonesia and Vietnam, according to MLA. But a downturn in China's dairy sector — Australia's third-largest market for live cattle and the largest for breeder cattle — has led to reduced demand for Australian dairy breeder cattle, with average values falling substantially over the past year.
Australia's feedlot capacity has hit an all-time high, exceeding 1.4mn head. But the majority of the herd remains grass-fed, so feedlot cattle represent a smaller share of overall production. Grain-fed cattle accounted for 35pc of total beef production during April-June, slightly below the 10-year average of 38pc. With supply constraints in the US affecting its traditional markets in Japan and South Korea, Australian grain-fed beef has a growing opportunity to not only fill this gap but also make inroads into the US market.
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Poor wheat crop to slash French exports
Poor wheat crop to slash French exports
Paris, 29 August (Argus) — French wheat exports outside the EU could fall to their lowest in two decades in 2024-25, based on Argus ' forecast of a 25.17mn t harvest. France may have just 4.1mn t of wheat — excluding durum — available for export to non-EU countries in 2024-25 (July-June), Argus said. French exports to other countries in the EU are projected at 6.3mn t. This would cut French wheat exports outside the bloc to their lowest since 2001-02. France on average exported 10mn t to non-EU countries over the past five marketing years. Major importers of French wheat in the 2023-24 marketing year included Morocco, which took 2.7mn t, and China and sub-Saharan Africa, which each took 2.4mn t. The drop in exports is the result of a catastrophic season for French wheat production, with Argus expecting France to record its smallest wheat harvest in 41 years. Argus earlier this month pegged France's wheat crop at 25.17mn t, based on feedback from farmers, grain trading firms and co-operatives across France collected between 1-5 August. Near-continuous rain from planting until harvest devastated both planted areas and yields . Crop quality issue Unfavourable weather has also affected the quality of French wheat. Key measures of quality, in particular the test weight of the crop, vary highly from region to region this year. Both French producers and exporters have already slowed sales activity at the start of the 2024-25 marketing year in response to signs of a poor crop. Exporters buying wheat on the local cpt market have mostly had to buy at basis to Euronext futures, well above fob prices in the international market, Argus assessed prices show. Argus also highlighted the impact of a poor crop on France's domestic sector. Producers risk selling at negative margins for all three key crops — wheat, feed barley and rapeseed — harvested in 2024. For wheat, this would mean the crop has been loss-making for the eighth time in the past 20 years. France is historically the largest wheat producer and exporter in the EU. It is not the only country in Europe to harvest a smaller crop this year, with Germany and the UK also hard hit by wet weather. Global picture Argus expects total wheat production in the EU and UK at 135mn t this year, the lowest since 2012. This implies exports outside of the bloc and UK at 29.5mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year, compared with an average 35.4mn t/yr over the past five years. The EU as a bloc is one of the world's top eight wheat exporters. Any loss in market share is set to go to Russia, Ukraine, the US and Canada, with the US expecting its largest wheat crop in eight years. Key exporters Australia and Argentina in the southern hemisphere are also projected to have relatively high supply for 2024-25 once harvesting begins later this year. That said, the balance between global supply and demand remains tight for 2024-25. Argus projects combined export supply from the world's top eight exporters at a three-year low. And while the start of the marketing year has been characterised by falling prices as northern hemisphere exporters compete for slow demand, the situation could change rapidly if buyers in north Africa, China and potentially India return en masse. By Maxence Devillers and Claudia Jackson French common wheat exports to non-EU countries (mn t) French common wheat production (mn t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ukraine corn 2024-25 output to fall to 22.9mn t
Ukraine corn 2024-25 output to fall to 22.9mn t
London, 28 August (Argus) — Argus forecasts Ukraine's 2024-25 corn production to fall sharply on the year and five-year average because unfavourable weather during development has cut yields, adding to pressure from lower areas on the year. Argus projects Ukraine's corn output at 22.9mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year (October-September), down from its estimate for 2023-24 at 31.5mn t. The new Argus forecast is also lower than the latest 2024-25 projections from the US Department of Agriculture at 27.2mn t. Record-high temperatures in July and a lack of rainfall has caused a potential drop in corn yields by 10-30pc this season compared with last year, when favourable weather conditions resulted in above-average yields in some regions. For the 2024-25 crop, yields have fallen in all key producing regions. Corn crops in western regions fared better than those in northern and central regions. Argus forecasts the 2024-25 average corn yields at 5.87 t/hectare (t/ha), significantly lower than Argus' 2023-24 estimate of 7.78 t/ha for last year. Total 2024-25 corn harvested areas are forecast at 3.89mn ha, down by 2pc on the year. Areas might shrink further because some farmers have used crops from their worse-off fields for silage. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Low water spurs Mississippi River restrictions
Low water spurs Mississippi River restrictions
Houston, 27 August (Argus) — The US Coast Guard implemented draft restrictions for the lower Mississippi River yesterday as water levels fall. Beginning from around Tiptonville, Tennessee, to Rosedale, Mississippi, southbound barge drafts cannot be greater than 11ft and tow more than seven barges wide. Southbound transit from Rosedale to Tunica, Mississippi, cannot have a draft deeper than 11.5ft. Northbound drafts from Tunica to Tiptonville cannot be greater than 10ft. The operating drafts were reduced to 9ft in mid-October , but water levels began declining in June last year. The low water threshold of -2ft has been passed at Tunica Mhoon Landing, Mississippi, reaching -3.4ft. Memphis, Tennessee is only 2.5ft above its low water threshold. The US Coast Guard has initiated a 9ft draft requirement over the last two years when several points along the lower Mississippi have fallen below their low water threshold. Multiple sites on the lower Mississippi are forecast to reach their low water thresholds by the second week of September, according to the National Weather Service. Southbound freight rates are likely to rise as draft restrictions force barge carriers to employ larger fleets to move the same volumes, especially as crop harvests continue. With restrictions on the number of towable barges, more transits will have to occur for both south and northbound products. Grain exporters at New Orleans have taken to the sidelines as the risk of grain being caught on the lower Mississippi River has increased. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australian canola output to fall in 2024-25: AOF
Australian canola output to fall in 2024-25: AOF
Sydney, 27 August (Argus) — Australian canola production is expected to fall in 2024-25 following a smaller expected harvest area and a mixed crop outlook across regions, according to the Australian Oilseeds Federation's (AOF) August crop report. The AOF projects canola production to fall by 367,000t to 5.44mn t in 2024-25 from 2023-24. The area harvested is expected to fall by 356,000 hectares (ha) to 3.24mn ha, which is 36,000 ha more than the AOF's forecast made in June . Production is set to fall in all states, except New South Wales (NSW), which is anticipated to increase by 330,000t to 1.67mn t in 2024-25 from 2023-24 despite a smaller harvest area. NSW cropping regions have benefited from favourable rainfall and good soil moisture levels and are expected to reach average or above average yields. But crops in southern and southwestern regions are behind on typical growth and will need continuing favourable seasonal conditions to reach below average yield potential. The AOF also warned that more advanced crops are subject to frost risk. The largest harvested area reduction was in Western Australia (WA), which accounted for 45pc of total production in 2023-24, according to AOF sourced estimates. Growers reduced their canola plantings because of a hot and dry summer and the absence of a material rainfall event to start the growing season during April-May. Further reductions resulted as crops were abandoned and resown with alternative crops. The US Department of Agriculture expects a larger crop in 2024-25, projecting Australian canola output at 5.5mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year. By Edward Dunlop Australian canola harvest area, production 2023-24 2024-25 y-o-y ± Harvest area (ha) NSW 866,000 820,000 -5% Victoria 601,000 600,000 -0% South Australia 284,000 260,000 -8% WA 1,845,000 1,560,000 -15% Total 3,596,000 3,240,000 -10% Production (t) NSW 1,340,000 1,670,000 25% Victoria 1,410,000 1,245,000 -12% South Australia 468,000 400,000 -15% WA 2,584,000 2,120,000 -18% Total 5,802,000 5,435,000 -6% Source: AOF Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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