Retroactive EU HRC AD duties could start 8 Dec

Retroactive duties on hot-rolled coil (HRC) from Vietnam, Japan, India and Egypt could potentially be payable from 8 December in the EU.

Provisional duties are expected to be imposed by 8 March 2025, and retroactive taxes payable, should the European Commission choose to introduce them, 90 days prior.

This is likely to see most market participants clear all of their imports from these origins at the start of October, once the next quota period starts. The allocations from Vietnam and Japan are expected to exhaust imminently, with few returns by Italian importers, as this would be the last chance to import free of dumping duty risk. Some market participants said that duties on Vietnam could be double-digit, close to Chinese rates.

Imports from Egypt and India could trickle into the EU over October-November, depending on how much material is left at ports from the previous quarters. Duties on those two origins are expected closer to or higher than Turkish AD rates, while some market participants are sceptical if Japan will be found to have been dumping.

A pre-disclosure to the investigation is expected by 7 February 2025. A final disclosure is expected by 16 June 2025 and the deadline for the definitive decision duties is set for 6 September 2025. The commission will conduct verification visits between 23 October and 6 December 2024.

The investigation has already had an impact on trade flows into the EU, with buyers purchasing higher volumes from Turkey — the quota for July-September is due to exhaust over the coming weeks, with already more than 400,000t imported since 1 July. Less than 25pc of Turkey's April-June quota filled up, and less than 15pc in the previous quarter. There have been more offers and deals from Australia, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia too — both of the latter are exempt from safeguards.

Meanwhile, analytics platform Kpler data show that a cargo of just under 50,000t of Chinese coils is arriving in Spain on 5 September.

By Lora Stoyanova