Retroactive EU HRC AD duties could start 8 Dec

Spanish Market: Metals
04/09/24

Retroactive duties on hot-rolled coil (HRC) from Vietnam, Japan, India and Egypt could potentially be payable from 8 December in the EU.

Provisional duties are expected to be imposed by 8 March 2025, and retroactive taxes payable, should the European Commission choose to introduce them, 90 days prior.

This is likely to see most market participants clear all of their imports from these origins at the start of October, once the next quota period starts. The allocations from Vietnam and Japan are expected to exhaust imminently, with few returns by Italian importers, as this would be the last chance to import free of dumping duty risk. Some market participants said that duties on Vietnam could be double-digit, close to Chinese rates.

Imports from Egypt and India could trickle into the EU over October-November, depending on how much material is left at ports from the previous quarters. Duties on those two origins are expected closer to or higher than Turkish AD rates, while some market participants are sceptical if Japan will be found to have been dumping.

A pre-disclosure to the investigation is expected by 7 February 2025. A final disclosure is expected by 16 June 2025 and the deadline for the definitive decision duties is set for 6 September 2025. The commission will conduct verification visits between 23 October and 6 December 2024.

The investigation has already had an impact on trade flows into the EU, with buyers purchasing higher volumes from Turkey — the quota for July-September is due to exhaust over the coming weeks, with already more than 400,000t imported since 1 July. Less than 25pc of Turkey's April-June quota filled up, and less than 15pc in the previous quarter. There have been more offers and deals from Australia, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia too — both of the latter are exempt from safeguards.

Meanwhile, analytics platform Kpler data show that a cargo of just under 50,000t of Chinese coils is arriving in Spain on 5 September.

By Lora Stoyanova

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30/12/24

Viewpoint: Ti scrap’s rebound pinned on Boeing, melters

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — Domestic titanium scrap demand and, in turn, prices are expected to increase in the second half of 2025, supported by a recovery in aircraft build rates and expansions in titanium melters' capacity that have boosted sentiment across the supply chain following a disappointing year. Industry expectations of greater scrap requirements in 2024 — predicated on aerospace manufacturers increasing their build rates — failed to materialize after production missteps and supply chain bottlenecks forced Boeing to curb output of its main aircraft programs and Airbus to delay its ramp targets . US prices for aerospace-grade titanium scrap have tumbled this year compared with 2023 averages, with 6-4 turnings off by 25pc and 6-4 bulk weldable down by 13pc through mid-December from the same period the prior year. Titanium melters' efforts to control input costs have had a trickle-down effect across the scrap supply chain, compelling processors and dealers to reduce their bids also to protect margins. Scrap suppliers foresee stronger consumption signals for 2025, pointing to the return of Boeing's 737 MAX production following a seven-week strike and the gradual decline of scrap inventories that have remained elevated relative to demand. Dealer and processors also are looking forward to the return of normalized build rates for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner, its main wide-body model that contains about 15pc titanium compared with around 6pc for the 737. Production of the 787 has been hampered this year because of parts shortages , which the airframer expects to stamp out before year end. Still, those outlooks may be upended depending on whether US president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his plans to impose sweeping tariffs on all imports into the US, and sources told Argus that any recovery likely will not take place until the summer at the earliest, cautioning that it would take months before the scrap industry would benefit from the comeback in aircraft manufacturing. Feeding new furnaces Market participants are banking on additional ingot production capacity that is scheduled to come on line in 2025 to fuel demand for aerospace-grade scrap, saying titanium melters will want to keep their new furnaces running hot. ATI expects to finish product qualifications related to its expansion at its Richland, Washington, operations next year, which should boost its melting capacity by 35pc over 2022 levels. Titanium Metals (TIMET) this summer plans to commission its new plant in Ravenswood, West Virginia, which is expected to turn out 33mn lbs of ingot annually in the project's first phase. Still, lengthy product qualifications may push out any benefit for the scrap supply chain to 2026. Perryman currently is ramping up after expanding its facility in Coal Center, Pennsylvania, that should grow the company's melting capacity by 16mn lbs to 42mn lbs annually. All those additions could lead to a run-up in scrap prices because of greater competition by melters for the same units, while longer lead times to get milled titanium products into machine shops creates a lag effect that leaves downstream generation largely unchanged. Trump-induced uncertainty A major source of uncertainty for next year centers around Trump's tariff policies, which have caused concern in the market. Trump campaigned on vows to levy 60pc duties on shipments from China, and more recently pledged 25pc duties on shipments from Mexico and Canada, and a 20pc duty on all other imports. If those come to fruition, it would increase costs for imports of titanium scrap — currently freely traded for all countries except China. But the tariff threats could also be Trump's way of generating negotiating leverage for his aims. "A duty on scrap from Europe and Japan would be a disaster for the industry," one source said. US titanium scrap imports reached 23,578 metric tonnes (t) through January-October, eclipsing the 22,453t sent in the same period in 2023 — a four-year high — and nearing pre-pandemic levels. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Cu smelting capacity to outpace mining

30/12/24

Viewpoint: Cu smelting capacity to outpace mining

Shanghai, 30 December (Argus) — The global copper concentrate market will likely remain tight in 2025, as an expected rise in copper smelting production capacity is set to outpace new copper mining projects and expansions. Argus expects 2.8mn t/yr of copper smelting capacity to come on stream next year, with 1.25mn t/yr of this coming from China and 1.55mn t/yr from the rest of the world. Major Chinese copper producer Tongling Nonferrous plans to launch two copper smelters in the second half of 2025, with a combined production capacity of 800,000 t/yr. The firm's 500,000 t/yr Tongling Jinxin smelter is expected to start up in the middle of 2025, pushed back from an initial launch date of the end of this year because of tight supply of copper concentrate feedstock. And the firm's 300,000 t/yr Tongling Jintong smelter is projected to start operations in October, with 200,000 t/yr of refined copper and 100,000 t/yr of copper anode production. But the company has not confirmed if it has secured enough copper concentrate to support either project. Major Chinese metals producer Guangxi Jinchuan Nonferrous is expected to begin operations at its new smelter at the end of this year, with a copper anode output capacity of 300,000 t/yr. And fellow domestic company Huading Copper finished building a new 100,000 t/yr refined copper project in November, according to market participants. Elsewhere, Indian conglomerate Adani launched a 500,000 t/yr smelter earlier this year and is expected to steadily ramp up to production capacity by 2026. Indonesian mining company PT Amman had planned to launch a 200,000 t/yr copper smelter in the fourth quarter of this year. US-based firm Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary is projected to resume production at its 300,000 t/yr Manyar smelter in the third quarter of 2025 after the facility was brought off line following a fire in October. And a 500,000 t/yr blister copper smelter at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to begin production in February. Supply growth Growth in copper concentrate supply next year is expected to mainly come from expansion projects at existing mines, with 1.2mn t/yr of additional mining capacity in the pipeline, according to Argus calculations. The first phase of Russia's Malmyzh mine is due to start operations in 2025, with a copper production capacity of 150,000 t/yr. Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi mine will continue ramping up production next year, in a bid to lift its copper output to 500,000 t/yr by 2028 from 168,100t in 2023. And the commissioning of Kamoa-Kakula's phase 3 in August 2024 will lift copper output at the mine to 600,000 t/yr in 2025 from 450,000 t/yr previously. Two mining expansions in Chile are expected to boost global copper production next year. Australian mining group BHP is scheduled to lift copper cathode output at its Escondida mine to 410,000 t/yr over a 10-year period, having produced 198,600t in the July 2023-June 2024 fiscal year. And Chilean copper producer Codelco's El Teniente mining project is due to increase copper output to 500,000 t/yr by 2025 from 245,500 t/yr in January-September. Lower utilisation rates But mining supply growth may be insufficient to meet the additional demand from new and expanded smelting capacity, meaning global copper smelters will likely have to reduce their utilisation rates to 70pc in 2025 from 75pc this year, according to industry forecasts. "The Onsan copper smelter in South Korea is likely to cut its output by 100,000t to 550,000t for 2025, because of concentrate supply tightness," a trading company told Argus . Some Chinese smelters have already cut production capacity in response to tight copper concentrate supply or because of accidents at their facilities. "Liaoning Shenghai Copper, Guangxi Nanguo Copper, Baiyin Nonferrous, Chifeng Fubang Copper and Daye Yangxin Hongsheng have suspended operations, removing a combined 1mn t/yr of production capacity," a trader said. Extended talks over 2025 benchmarks Annual benchmark talks between Chinese smelters and representatives from Chile-based mining firm Antofagasta for copper concentrate supplies in 2025 were subject to long delays. Major Chinese smelter Jiangxi Copper and Antofagasta finally settled their treatment and refining charges for copper concentrate supplies for 2025 on 5 December, at $21.25/t and 2.125¢/Ib respectively, down from $80/t and 8.0¢/Ib in 2024, according to market participants. Chinese copper smelters and overseas concentrate suppliers usually agree charges during the Asia Copper Week conference, which was this year held in Shanghai over 13-14 November. But settlements were delayed to early December because of the two sides' significant differences in price ideas. Antofagasta quoted $10/t for treatment charges in the first round of negotiations, but smelters bid $45/t and conceded to $35/t, market participants told Argus . New copper mining capacity/expansions '000 t/yr Mine Location Capacity Start-up Oyu Tolgoi Mongolia 300 2025-28 Kamoa DRC 150 3Q24 Kansanshi S3 Zambia 55 mid-2025 El Teniente new mine level Chile 170 1Q25 Comide DRC 40 end of 2025 Malmyzh Russia 150 2025 Escondida Full Sal Chile 200 3Q24-2Q25 Tongling Non-Ferrous Mirador II Ecuador 75 Jun-25 Salvado Rajo Inca Peru 90 late 2024 Total 1,230 — Argus New copper smelter capacity '000 t/yr Smelter Location Capacity Start-up Tongling Jintong Copper Inner Mongolia, China 300 Oct-25 Yunnan Copper relocate Yunnan, China 50 late 2024 Guangxi Jinchuan Guangxi, China 300 end of 2024 Tongling Jinxin Copper Anhui, China 500 mid-2025 Huading Copper Inner Mongolia, China 100 2025 Adani India 500 2024-26 Freeport Indonesia Indonesia 300 3Q25 PT Amman Indonesia 200 4Q24 Kamoa-Kakula DRC 500 Feb-25 Kansanshi S3 Zambia 55 mid-2025 Total 2,805 — Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Singapore extends electric vehicle incentive to 2027

30/12/24

Singapore extends electric vehicle incentive to 2027

Singapore, 30 December (Argus) — Singapore has extended the incentive for electric light commercial vehicles under its Commercial Vehicle Emissions Scheme (CVES) to 31 March 2027 from 1 April 2025. Incentives for more pollutive vehicles will also be scrapped or their surcharges raised, under the CVES. This is part of efforts to push for the adoption of cleaner commercial vehicles. The country's CVES categorises vehicles based on their "worst-performing pollutant". The S$15,000 ($11,060) CVES incentive for Band A, which includes mainly electric vehicles, has been kept unchanged at S$15,000, according to a joint statement by the city state's Land Transport Authority (LTA) and National Environment Agency (NEA). The S$5,000 incentive for Band B, which includes mainly petrol vehicles, will be scrapped, while the surcharge for Band C, which includes mainly diesel vehicles, will be raised from S$15,000 to S$20,000. "These changes are in line with the government's vision to have all vehicles run on cleaner energy by 2040," the LTA and NEA said in their joint statement on 30 December. Singapore will be halting new registrations for diesel cars and taxis from 2025, it said in July. Existing diesel cars will also be subject to higher road taxes. The country's Early Turnover Scheme (ETS) for heavy commercial vehicles, which promotes the replacement of older, more pollutive diesel commercial vehicles and buses by providing a discount when switching to cleaner-energy vehicles, will be extended to 31 December 2025. There were 11,941 battery electric cars in Singapore as of end-2023, which constituted just 1.8pc of its 2023 car population of around 651,300 units. The figure for petrol-electric hybrid cars, excluding plug-in vehicles, was much higher at 79,256 as of the end of 2023. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US stainless recovery expected in 1H

27/12/24

Viewpoint: US stainless recovery expected in 1H

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — US finished and scrap stainless steel market participants are cautiously optimistic for 2025 because of low inventories, waning imports and expected policy changes when president-elect Donald Trump takes office in January. The stainless steel market expects a challenging early start to 2025 before a rebound later in the first half of the year, as renewed demand from the oil and natural gas sector combines with low inventories and potential Trump policies. US stainless meltshop production in the first half of 2024 totaled just over 1mn metric tonnes (t), up from the atypically low 2023 levels of roughly 940,000t, according to data from World Stainless. These figures are well below prior years with the US averaging about 1.18mn t in the first half of 2021 and 2022. The market has struggled to hit its full stride in 2024 as consistent finished imports and falling nickel prices undercut the market. Flat rolled coil ex works US prices for 304 declined to $1.60-1.77/lb for December shipments, compared with $1.68-1.86/lb a year earlier. Still, this trend could soon stabilize and begin to reverse. Sources estimate US service center finished stainless steel inventory levels for both flat rolled and long bar products are at lows last seen in 2021, a time when US demand was still crimped from the Covid-19 pandemic. Service centers have kept unusually low inventories because of a mix of moderate demand and higher-than-usual interest rates raising end-of-year accounting costs. Weaker service center demand has subsequently capped scrap generation, limiting how low US mills can push their raw material costs for new scrap. Average US stainless steel scrap 304 solids prices have held within a tight 2¢/lb spread of 56.5-58.5¢/lb since early August as falling generation rates ran up against lower demand. The incoming Republican administration has fostered an atmosphere of optimism among market sources, who expect Trump policies will support the domestic industry by cutting oil and gas permitting restrictions, shifting US spending away from overseas investments and broader deregulation of American businesses. Trump has also proposed a myriad of tariffs, including specifically targeting China and the US' largest trading partners — Canada and Mexico. US imports of flat rolled stainless of any size climbed by 22pc to 404,000t in 2024 so far, according to US customs data. Mexico contributed roughly 7pc of these volumes, while Indonesia — home to multiple Chinese stainless mills — contributed 8pc of US imports. By raising import costs, US producers could in theory make up some of this difference. Stainless producers will likely have to raise prices as a result of tariffs, following a year with far fewer base prices adjustments. Long producer Universal Stainless raised base prices only once in 2024 compared to five times in 2023. Nickel-scrap disconnect widens US mills have offset the persistent weak demand by tweaking the nickel payable — the percentage of the price of nickel they are willing to pay for nickel recovered from scrap — each month since April. The nickel payable rate reached a historic low of 42-43pc in 2023, before rebounding. Although up from historic lows, nickel payable has decreased from 57-59pc in March of this year to 50-54pc for procurements in November. At these lower levels scrap is more disconnected from the movements in the nickel market. Some market participants still remain concerned, chiefly over slowing growth in China, which consumes nearly 50pc of the world's nickel. China has ramped up production of nickel largely in Indonesia in recent years to service the growing electric vehicle market. Market conditions in Europe also continue to undercut demand. Spanish stainless producer and owner of US-based North American Stainless, Acerinox, highlighted in its third quarter results that the European manufacturing sector is undergoing a "drastic contraction". It added that while destocking efforts were completed at the time, demand remained weak. By Pete J Stavretis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Indian FeCr to face pressure in 1Q 2025

27/12/24

Viewpoint: Indian FeCr to face pressure in 1Q 2025

Mumbai, 27 December (Argus) — India's ferro-chrome market is expected to remain under pressure in the first quarter because of muted spot demand as a result of sluggish stainless steel consumption. Producers will likely keep ferro-chrome output low in the coming months. The market is widely expected to remain sluggish until after the lunar new year holiday in February. There is little to no optimism that spot liquidity and supplier profit margins will increase in the short term, because demand from the stainless steel industry is weak. Prices for Indian high-carbon ferro-chrome 60pc fluctuated significantly in 2024. Prices hit a high of 120,000-121,000 rupees/t ($1,400-1,415/t) ex-works on 21 February, bolstered by tight ore availability and rising feedstock costs. But weak demand for stainless steel, both locally and globally, kept many market participants on the sidelines, causing prices to fall sharply in April-August, reaching Rs102,000-104,000/t ex-works on 20 August. Prices have since remained around this level, with the Argus assessment on 12 December at Rs104,000-106,000/t. Low demand from the stainless steel sector has effectively removed any possibility of a price recovery in the near term. Spot liquidity has been markedly lower than normal and a rebound is not expected. Volumes signed on long-term contracts for delivery in 2025 have also taken a dip and are at around 70-80pc of the volumes signed in 2023 for 2024 delivery. Weaker ferro-chrome demand and prices have led to lower production. India's ferro-chrome output declined from 1.3mn-1.4mn t in 2023 to an estimated 1.2mn t in 2024, and monthly consumption in the country is estimated to have decreased from 30,000-35,000t to 20,000-25,000t. Consumption is unlikely to rebound significantly until global and local stainless steel demand recovers. Suppliers typically turn to the export market when there is a supply surplus, with exports from India typically accounting for around 50pc of the country's output. But India's ferro-chrome exports are also falling. Shipments declined by 38pc year on year to 402,817t in January-September, compared with 648,475t over the same period a year earlier. Macroeconomic headwinds have dented global demand for stainless steel, and in turn ferro-chrome. European and Chinese demand was high in the first half of 2024 but has slowed significantly since then, with European buyers shifting their focus towards cheaper Kazakh material. Increased freight rates, port congestion and higher production costs have further weighed on exports. In addition, China has increased production and its domestic output now exceeds domestic consumption. This has weighed on domestic prices since August and increased supply in the export market. The market is unlikely to pick up until ferro-chrome inventories at China's port are consumed, a source told Argus . Decreasing demand and prices have made some suppliers' margins negative, forcing some to cut output by 50-60pc and others to shift their focus to producing manganese alloys, which offer stronger margins despite higher production costs. The cost of production for high-carbon ferro-chrome in India is around Rs116,000-119,000/t ex-works. Only producers with their own captive chrome ore mines are making a profit at present, sources said. Indian ferro-chrome suppliers also face issues with deteriorating chrome ore grade, which has led to increased production costs and lower-quality ferro-chrome output. The deterioration in ore quality is particularly evident in state-owned Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) auctions — the premium for OMC's 50-52pc ore over its 48-49.99pc ore rose to above Rs1,000/t in early December. The higher premiums for high-grade ore, coupled with the drop in demand, have limited ferro-chrome producers' appetite to participate in OMC's auctions, as supply of high-grade ore is limited and only available at high premiums while low-grade ore is unfavourable as its consumption raises production costs. A lack of interest in OMC's monthly tender boosted this bearish sentiment and created further downward pressure on India's ferro-chrome prices. By Deepika Singh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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