The recently expanded 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline's start-up has improved Asian refiners' access to heavy Canadian crude at a time when supplies of such grades have tightened, PetroChina International's chief economist Wu Qiunan said.
The TMX pipeline has cut the shipping time to export crude from Canada's west coast to Asia-Pacific to "only 19 days compared with the US Gulf [coast] which is basically 45 days," Wu said at the S&P Global Commodity Insights Appec conference in Singapore on 9 September. This "opens a very good option for Asia to receive more from Canada".
Wu pointed out that the Middle East is seen as the "natural supply" source of crude for Asian refiners, but the freight distance to ship crude from the region is now similar to shipping crude from Canada's west coast. Canadian crude exported from the TMX pipeline is also heavy, while supplies of similar-quality crude from the Mideast have become tighter because of Opec+ production cuts. This meant that Asian refiners will "find value" for such heavy grades. Canadian crude is also not cheap and in fact has found "a fair price", Wu said.
Asian demand will continue to grow in importance against the prospect of increasing production from the Americas, including from Guyana and Brazil. Asian demand has been key in soaking up the growth of US production and exports, Norway's state-controlled Equinor's senior vice-president for crude products and liquids Alex Grant said, with Asian oil demand and US supply growth sharing a "symbiotic" relationship.
But the potential production increase from the Americas brings uncertainty to the outlook for US shale growth, especially with the current negative sentiment over oil demand growth. "We know there's going to be a lot of sources of [supply] growth coming in the next year or two, no matter what the price," Grant said. "So, the big question is what happens to US shale growth?"
