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Asia has TMX option as heavy crudes tighten: PetroChina

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 10/09/24

The recently expanded 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline's start-up has improved Asian refiners' access to heavy Canadian crude at a time when supplies of such grades have tightened, PetroChina International's chief economist Wu Qiunan said.

The TMX pipeline has cut the shipping time to export crude from Canada's west coast to Asia-Pacific to "only 19 days compared with the US Gulf [coast] which is basically 45 days," Wu said at the S&P Global Commodity Insights Appec conference in Singapore on 9 September. This "opens a very good option for Asia to receive more from Canada".

Wu pointed out that the Middle East is seen as the "natural supply" source of crude for Asian refiners, but the freight distance to ship crude from the region is now similar to shipping crude from Canada's west coast. Canadian crude exported from the TMX pipeline is also heavy, while supplies of similar-quality crude from the Mideast have become tighter because of Opec+ production cuts. This meant that Asian refiners will "find value" for such heavy grades. Canadian crude is also not cheap and in fact has found "a fair price", Wu said.

Asian demand will continue to grow in importance against the prospect of increasing production from the Americas, including from Guyana and Brazil. Asian demand has been key in soaking up the growth of US production and exports, Norway's state-controlled Equinor's senior vice-president for crude products and liquids Alex Grant said, with Asian oil demand and US supply growth sharing a "symbiotic" relationship.

But the potential production increase from the Americas brings uncertainty to the outlook for US shale growth, especially with the current negative sentiment over oil demand growth. "We know there's going to be a lot of sources of [supply] growth coming in the next year or two, no matter what the price," Grant said. "So, the big question is what happens to US shale growth?"


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11/09/24

Harris, Trump clash as polls hang in balance

Harris, Trump clash as polls hang in balance

Washington, 11 September (Argus) — Former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris brawled, often in personal terms, in their first presidential debate on Tuesday, with Trump branding Harris a "Marxist" and Harris saying world leaders know they can manipulate Trump with flattery. With polls indicating an even match between Trump and Harris across the six or seven battleground states that will determine the election outcome, Tuesday's debate — likely the only one they will have — presented a breakout opportunity for the two candidates. While President Joe Biden was unable to stand up to Trump's attacks in their match-up in June — in a debate performance that eventually led to his withdrawing from the race — Harris, a former prosecutor, frequently had Trump on the defensive, casting her 78-year-old opponent as confused and extreme. The debate, held in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, started off on a calm note as Harris walked up to Trump to introduce herself — the two politicians were meeting face to face for the first time. Harris touted her plan to extend child tax credits and provide tax deductions for small businesses. Harris cast Trump's plan to impose tariffs of up to 20pc on all imported goods as essentially a national sales tax that would hurt the middle class. Trump argued that his plan would not represent a tax on US consumers because "other countries are going to finally pay us back for all that we've done". But the debate quickly deteriorated, as Trump called Harris a "Marxist", suggested that immigrants moving to the US hunt dogs and cats for personal consumption and asserted that Harris would ban hydraulic fracturing (fracking) on her first day in office. "I have not banned fracking as vice president of the US, and in fact, I was the tie breaking vote on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which opened new leases for fracking," Harris said. When Harris was running for the Democratic nomination in 2019, she said there was "no question I'm in favor of banning fracking", only to abandon that position when running this year. The IRA, the landmark climate legislation that Congress approved in 2022, included a compromise provision demanded by the Republican lawmakers that set aside more areas for leasing in the Gulf of Mexico. Trump appeared to give the Democratic administration credit for keeping the US oil industry intact. "They started getting rid of it, and the prices were going up the roof. They immediately let these guys go where they were." But he contended that US oil output would have been "four-five times" than it is now if he had been re-elected in 2020. US crude output fell sharply in Trump's last year in office as the Covid-19 pandemic devastated demand. Oil output reached a record high of 12.9mn b/d last year and is projected to grow again this year, according to the Energy Information Administration. "If she won the election, the day after that election, they'll go back to destroying our country, and oil will be dead," Trump said. "Fossil fuel will be dead. We'll go back to windmills, and we'll go back to solar." Foreign policy issues presented another area of personal attacks for the candidates. "World leaders are laughing at Donald Trump," Harris said. Trump countered by citing praise for his leadership from Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orban, a controversial leader who frequently clashes with EU leaders over their support for Ukraine. Trump repeatedly refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win its war with Russia, merely saying that the war should end. And he argued it would not have started if he had been in office. "If Donald Trump were president, [Russian president Vladimir] Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now," Harris said. "You adore strongmen instead of caring about democracy." Trump frequently attacked Biden during the debate, prompting Harris to say: "It's important to remind the former president, you're not running against Joe Biden, you're running against me." An average of national polls aggregated by the Washington Post shows Harris with a 2 percentage point lead over Trump this week — a result that pollsters interpret as a statistical dead heat, as the winner is determined in the Electoral College, not in the nationwide voting. It will take some time for the outcome of Tuesday's debate to become apparent in the polls. Harris and Trump have not agreed to hold another debate. Trump's vice presidential pick, Ohio senator JD Vance and Harris' running partner, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, are scheduled to hold a televised debate on 1 October. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Francine shuts in 24pc of US Gulf oil output: Update


10/09/24
News
10/09/24

Francine shuts in 24pc of US Gulf oil output: Update

Includes production shut-in figures, port status updates and spot crude price information. New York, 10 September (Argus) — US offshore operators shut in 24pc of Gulf of Mexico oil production ahead of tropical storm Francine, which is expected to gain hurricane status later today and hit Louisiana Wednesday. About 412,070 b/d of offshore oil output was off line as of 12:30pm ET due to storm preparations, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). About 494mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 26pc of the region's output, was also off line. Operators evacuated workers from 130 platforms. The storm was about 380 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, packing maximum sustained winds of 65mph, according to a 2pm ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It is expected to continue to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday evening. The storm will track through an offshore region that accounts for about 15pc of US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production. Ports closing ahead of storm Ports along the storm's path are restricting inbound and outbound traffic ahead of the storm, with many planning to close in the next day. Lightering operations were paused off of Galveston, Texas, starting Monday night due to high seas, and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port export/import facility said it was following its inclement weather plans, which includes shutting down ahead of a storm like Francine. The port of Houston closed to both inbound and outbound vessel traffic at 1pm ET Tuesday due to worsening weather conditions from Francine, a ship agent said. The US Coast Guard's captain of the port expected port condition Zulu, where gale force winds are anticipated within 12 hours and port operations are suspended, to be in place by 7pm ET Tuesday. In Louisiana, terminal operations at the port of New Orleans will be closed Wednesday , with operators expected to resume on Thursday. Operations at the New Orleans Public Belt, which connects major railroads to the port, will continue Tuesday before closing Wednesday and are expected to resume on Thursday. Offshore crude flows curtailed Chevron initiated shut-in procedures for its Anchor and Tahiti platforms, 190 miles south of New Orleans, and began transporting all personnel from the facilities. Production from its other operated platforms in the Gulf of Mexico remained at normal levels. Non-essential staff were also being removed from the Big Foot and Jack/St. Malo platforms, around 225 miles and 280 south of New Orleans, respectively. Crude from Tahiti is transported to the Boxer platform, from where it can move along pipelines that feed into multiple streams — Mars, medium sour grades Poseidon and Southern Green Canyon (SGC) — as well as lighter sour grades Eugene Island and Bonito. Production from the recently-started Anchor platform feeds into the Amberjack pipeline, which carries crude into the Mars stream. Mars has been heard trading at 70-90¢/bl discounts to the US benchmark in Cushing, Oklahoma, on Tuesday, rising over the day from a volume-weighted average discount of 96¢/bl on Monday. Francine's path over Louisiana means it has the potential to weigh more on refinery demand there than on offshore crude production. ExxonMobil said all staff had been transported off the Hoover platform, located about 200 miles south of Houston, and operations shut-in, while Shell said it was shutting in production at its nearby Perdido platform after earlier pausing drilling operations from the facility. Hoover and Perdido both feed into ExxonMobil's Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System (HOOPS), that delivers the HOOPS Blend to the Texas Gulf coast. HOOPS Blend is a medium sour crude that is not actively traded in the spot market. Competing Texas-delivered medium sour SGC was discussed at a 70¢/bl discount to the US benchmark today, which is where it traded in the prior session when narrowed its discount by about 35¢/bl from ahead of the weekend. So far, no major problems are expected at BP's offshore facilities in the region. Non-essential personnel have been evacuated from Shell's Enchilada/Salsa and Auger assets, located about 120 miles south of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana. By Stephen Cunningham, Tray Swanson and Amanda Smith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Port of NOLA to close prior to TS Francine


10/09/24
News
10/09/24

Port of NOLA to close prior to TS Francine

Houston, 10 September (Argus) — The port of New Orleans (Nola) in Louisiana and terminal operators there are limiting operations today in preparation for a full closure Wednesday as tropical storm Francine passes. Terminal operators are expected to reopen on 12 September after damages are assessed. United Bulk Terminals (UBT) issued a force majeure this morning from the Davant terminal on concerns for employee safety. The company did not disclose a timeline for reopening. UBT specializes in coal and petcoke along with other commodities. Associated Terminals will suspend operations 11-12 September and will assess damages on 13 September. The National Weather Service forecasts Francine to make landfall tomorrow on the Louisiana coast as a hurricane. Commodities including petcoke, coal, agriculture and fertilizer are likely to be affected by the port closure. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Italy's Falconara refinery widens crude slate


10/09/24
News
10/09/24

Italy's Falconara refinery widens crude slate

Barcelona, 10 September (Argus) — Italian refiner API is widening the crude slate at its 83,000 b/d Falconara refinery, joining other Mediterranean operators in seeking new grades because of political disruption and ownership changes. Falconara was a keen importer of Iraqi Kirkuk crude between 2019-23, before a dispute between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey halted exports. In 2022 Falconara received 33 crude cargoes, all but five of which were Kirkuk grade. Since the second half of July this year Falconara received six cargoes, all of different grades. August receipts were 75,000 b/d, up from 50,000 b/d a month earlier, according to Argus tracking. Deliveries were 35,000 b/d of Saudi Arab Light and 40,000 b/d of Libyan crude, split between Es Sider and Sarir. The latter was the first at Falconara in eight years. In September Falconara has taken 1mn bl of Kazakh Kebco and, according to Kpler data, a first cargo of 125,000bl cargo of Italian onshore Val'd Agri. At 38.4°API and 2.1pc sulphur Val'd Agri is close to Kirkuk's 36°API and 2pc sulphur, although output is far lower. Argus assessed Falconara's receipts at 55,000 b/d in January-August. The slate was a weighted average gravity of 30.6°API and 2pc sulphur content, compared with 31.8°API and 2pc sulphur overall last year and 35.6°API and 1.8pc in 2022, when Kirkuk dominated. Other regional refiners have changed their sourcing. Italy's Saras is importing a first cargo of Azeri Light since February 2022 , with light sweet Libyan alternatives halted by conflict. It may take different grades as trading firm Vitol becomes its new owner, after Trafigura had supplied large amounts of US WTI. Greece's Motor Oil Hellas (MOH) had to find an alternative to a 1mn bl cargo of Basrah Medium that was attacked in the Red Sea on the way to its 180,000 b/d Corinth facility. MOH opted for a first cargo of Guyanese Unity Gold. Helleniq Energy has changed its slate in the absence of Kirkuk and sanctioned Russian Urals, and it took first cargoes of Guyanese crude , and Ivory Coast crude and struck a deal with Iraq for Basrah grades. . Spain's Repsol is boosting cargoes of heavy Venezuelan crude under a sanctions waver and API's Trecate refinery has increased receipts of Nigerian Qua Iboe since it bought out ExxonMobil. Argus estimates Italian seaborne crude imports — excluding the northeast terminal of Trieste — at 1.13mn b/d in August, a four-month high and up from 1.06mn b/d in July. For a seventh consecutive month, Azeri BTC Blend and Libyan grades were Italy's largest imports, at 205,000 b/d and 195,000 b/d respectively. Nigeria and Caspian CPC Blend each supplied 125,000 b/d and Arab Light 115,000 b/d. By Adam Porter Italy crude imports mn bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Francine set for Wednesday landfall as hurricane


10/09/24
News
10/09/24

Francine set for Wednesday landfall as hurricane

New York, 10 September (Argus) — Tropical storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane today, as it continues on a path north through offshore US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production areas on its way to a Louisiana landfall Wednesday. Francine was located about 395 miles south-south west of Cameron, Louisiana, according to an 8am ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It is expected to remain off the coast of Texas and intensify to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of up to 100 mph, before landfall. The storm will track through an offshore region that accounts for about 15pc of US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production. Oil and gas producers started to evacuate personnel from offshore facilities earlier this week and shut in some production. Ports are starting to restrict traffic and offshore lightering operations were paused off of Galveston, Texas, starting Monday night due to high seas. Shell said late Monday it was in the process of shutting in production at its Perdido platform after earlier pausing drilling operations from the facility located about 190 miles south of Houston. Drilling has also been suspended at its Whale facility, which is not scheduled to start operations until later this year. Non-essential personnel have been evacuated from Shell's Enchilada/Salsa and Auger assets, located about 120 miles south of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana. Chevron initiated shut-in procedures for its Anchor and Tahiti platforms 190 miles south of New Orleans and began transporting all personnel from the facilities. Production from its other operated platforms in the Gulf of Mexico remained at normal levels. Non-essential staff were also being removed from the Big Foot and Jack/St. Malo platforms. ExxonMobil said all staff had been transported off the Hoover platform, located about 200 miles south of Houston, and operations shut-in. So far, no major problems are expected at BP's offshore facilities in the region. Ports in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico — including the Texas ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Texas City, Freeport, Beaumont and Port Arthur and the Louisiana ports of Cameron, Lake Charles and New Orleans — were set at port condition Yankee today, meaning gale force winds (39-54 mph) are expected within 24 hours and inbound vessel traffic over 500 gross tons is prohibited. The US Coast Guard's captain of the port of Houston suspended lightering operations at the Galveston Offshore Lightering Area (GOLA) at 11pm ET Monday. Lightering, the process in which crude or refined products are transferred from one ship to another, likely will be delayed off the Texas ports of Corpus Christi and Houston until Thursday due to sea conditions. By Stephen Cunningham and Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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