Japan's Shigeru Ishiba to be PM after winning LDP vote

Former Japanese Defense Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is set to replace Fumio Kishida as the country's new prime minister early next month. Ishiba's appointment is expected to restore public trust following a series of political scandals and continue the country's carbon-neutral policy, ensuring energy security and economic growth.

Ishiba, 67, was elected as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on 27 September, defeating economic security minister Sanae Takaichi by a narrow margin of 21 votes. He is expected to be confirmed as Japan's new prime minister on 1 October at a special session in parliament, where the LDP holds a majority.

The new administration is likely to maintain the policies of the Kishida's administration, including those on diplomatic and energy issues. Kishida has updated the country's energy policies under his green transformation (GX) strategy, which aims to achieve the country's net-zero emissions goal by 2050, since he took office in October 2021.

The GX approach has gained momentum, particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which altered global commodity trade flows and prompted advanced economies to reevaluate their energy priorities. Kishida has focused on maximising nuclear and renewable energy while enhancing conventional fuel security. Industry groups, including the Japan Business Federation, have supported the GX strategy, hoping the new administration will maintain this energy policy.

To further advance Kishida's GX policy, Ishiba has pledged to increase the development of the country's "rich" maritime resources in its vast territorial waters, aiming to make Japan more energy independent. This aligns with the country's push in March to explore national maritime resources to strengthen economic security.

Ishiba also has a special focus on lesser-utilised renewable energies in Japan, such as geothermal and hydroelectric power. The country has not fully utilised their high potential, he told Argus during the presidential campaign on 6 September.

Japan's power generation averaged 94GW in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, of which hydroelectric and geothermal output accounted for 10pc and 0.3pc respectively, according to data from the country's trade and industry ministry Meti.

Ishiba's energy policy, which focuses on domestic resources, stems from his concern about the country's low energy self-sufficiency rate, which is just above 12pc. The rate is even lower than that of 1941 when the country entered World War II, Ishiba said, stressing that the country must make more efforts to raise the number.

As a defense expert, Ishiba is advocating to establish an Asian version of Nato to enhance collective security within the region. But his long-standing policy is facing opposition because the idea requires the country to amend the constitution that prohibits collective security measures.

By Motoko Hasegawa, Yusuke Maekawa