Japan's Shigeru Ishiba to be PM after winning LDP vote
Former Japanese Defense Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is set to replace Fumio Kishida as the country's new prime minister early next month. Ishiba's appointment is expected to restore public trust following a series of political scandals and continue the country's carbon-neutral policy, ensuring energy security and economic growth.
Ishiba, 67, was elected as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on 27 September, defeating economic security minister Sanae Takaichi by a narrow margin of 21 votes. He is expected to be confirmed as Japan's new prime minister on 1 October at a special session in parliament, where the LDP holds a majority.
The new administration is likely to maintain the policies of the Kishida's administration, including those on diplomatic and energy issues. Kishida has updated the country's energy policies under his green transformation (GX) strategy, which aims to achieve the country's net-zero emissions goal by 2050, since he took office in October 2021.
The GX approach has gained momentum, particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which altered global commodity trade flows and prompted advanced economies to reevaluate their energy priorities. Kishida has focused on maximising nuclear and renewable energy while enhancing conventional fuel security. Industry groups, including the Japan Business Federation, have supported the GX strategy, hoping the new administration will maintain this energy policy.
To further advance Kishida's GX policy, Ishiba has pledged to increase the development of the country's "rich" maritime resources in its vast territorial waters, aiming to make Japan more energy independent. This aligns with the country's push in March to explore national maritime resources to strengthen economic security.
Ishiba also has a special focus on lesser-utilised renewable energies in Japan, such as geothermal and hydroelectric power. The country has not fully utilised their high potential, he told Argus during the presidential campaign on 6 September.
Japan's power generation averaged 94GW in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, of which hydroelectric and geothermal output accounted for 10pc and 0.3pc respectively, according to data from the country's trade and industry ministry Meti.
Ishiba's energy policy, which focuses on domestic resources, stems from his concern about the country's low energy self-sufficiency rate, which is just above 12pc. The rate is even lower than that of 1941 when the country entered World War II, Ishiba said, stressing that the country must make more efforts to raise the number.
As a defense expert, Ishiba is advocating to establish an Asian version of Nato to enhance collective security within the region. But his long-standing policy is facing opposition because the idea requires the country to amend the constitution that prohibits collective security measures.
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US Gulf oil shut-ins drop as Helene nears landfall
US Gulf oil shut-ins drop as Helene nears landfall
New York, 26 September (Argus) — US Gulf of Mexico oil production shut-in levels fell today as Hurricane Helene bore down on Florida's west coast as a category 3 storm, bringing the threat of dangerous storm surge and winds. Around 441,923 b/d of US offshore oil output, or 25pc, was off line as of 12:30pm ET, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). That is down from 29pc on Wednesday as the eastern Gulf path of the storm took it farther away from most offshore production facilities. About 363.39mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 20pc of the region's output, was also off line today, up from 17pc on Wednesday. Operators have evacuated workers from 27 offshore platforms. Helene was last about 145 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, packing maximum winds of 120mph, according to a 4pm ET advisory from the US National Hurricane Center. Further intensification is likely and Helene could approach the coast at category 4 strength, with winds of at least 130mph. Landfall is expected near Port Leon on Apalachee Bay Thursday evening before Helene is forecast to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and into the weekend. Earlier this week, offshore operators including BP, Equinor and Chevron took the precaution of suspending some operations and evacuating workers from offshore facilities in advance of the hurricane. Some facilities have since started back up as the hurricane's track shifted away from the main oil and gas hub in the region. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hurricane Helene shuts in 29pc of US Gulf oil
Hurricane Helene shuts in 29pc of US Gulf oil
New York, 25 September (Argus) — Hurricane Helene, which is forecast to intensify as it heads for a late Thursday landfall in Florida, has shut in about 29pc of US Gulf of Mexico oil output. Around 511,000 b/d of US offshore oil output was off line as of 12:30pm ET, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), while 313mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 17pc of the region's output, was also off line. Operators have so far evacuated workers from 17 offshore platforms. Helene was last about 110 miles north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, according to a 2pm ET advisory from the US National Hurricane Center, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Helene is expected to be a major hurricane, with winds of at least 111mph, when it reaches the eastern Florida coast on Thursday evening. "A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening," the center said. Shell restarting some production Although the hurricane will largely pass to the east of most offshore oil and gas production areas, companies have taken precautionary measures. Given a shift in the forecast track, Shell said late Tuesday that it had started to ramp up production at the Appomattox platform to normal levels, and was in the process of restoring output at the Stones facility, both off the coast of Louisiana. It paused some drilling operations. Chevron said earlier it was shutting in production at company-operated facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, and evacuating all workers. Equinor said it was shutting down the Titan oil platform. BP had earlier this week started to shut in production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms, southeast of New Orleans, and was curtailing output from its Argos and Atlantis facilities, as well as removing non-essential staff. US offshore production was disrupted earlier this month when Hurricane Francine made landfall, with up to 42pc of production was offline at one point. The offshore Gulf of Mexico accounts for around 15pc of total US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LNG glut coming and may catch many by surprise: Orsted
LNG glut coming and may catch many by surprise: Orsted
London, 25 September (Argus) — There will be an oversupply of LNG on the global market in the coming years, which may contribute further to "the decade of turmoil", Danish utility Orsted senior vice-president Rune Sonne Bundgaard-Jorgensen told Argus . "The [energy] crisis is absolutely not over. To me, an energy crisis is one of uncertainty and volatility," Bundgaard-Jorgensen said on the sidelines of the Energy Trading Week conference in London. "We are going to see an LNG glut which we all in this [conference] room see is coming but the rest of the world does not necessarily. That is going to catch a lot of people by surprise," he said, adding that "surprises are never good when it comes to energy". According to Bundgaard-Jorgensen, "we are going to see an ongoing decade of turmoil. Who knows where the war in the Middle East with the latest attacks on Hezbollah and Israel is going to take us," he said. Among other concerns, he mentioned "uncertainties in the Far East, around the South China Sea". "So, though the current energy crisis of decoupling from Russian pipe gas is over, the continued crisis of where we are going to get sustainable, long-term energy from is far from over," Bundgaard-Jorgensen said. Commenting on Orsted's long-term gas plans, Bundgaard-Jorgensen stressed that Orsted is "constantly evaluating" its gas portfolio. He refused to say whether Orsted is negotiating another long-term deal with Norwegian state-controlled Equinor after their previous contract expired in April. Orsted entered an agreement with Equinor at the end of 2022, after Russian state-controlled Gazprom halted deliveries to the firm from June 2022 following Orsted's refusal to pay for its supply in roubles . "We are quite happy that we are out of our long-term contract with Gazprom," Bundgaard-Jorgensen said. "As a company we believe in decarbonisation — but I also need to believe in a resilient portfolio. So, we are constantly looking to optimise. Gas is not a strategic core of Orsted but it is a very important tool of securing our portfolio," he said. Bundgaard-Jorgensen refused to comment on whether the firm is planning to appeal a decision made by the Danish Supply Authority in July that the tariff levied by Orsted on the Tyra-Nybro pipeline to Denmark from 2011 to October 2012 was too high. The authority reduced the tariff in the period by almost 30pc to 7.20 Danish kroner/m³ from DKr10/m³. By Alexandra Vladimirova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Vietnam’s Vinacomin to boost coal imports
Vietnam’s Vinacomin to boost coal imports
Singapore, 25 September (Argus) — Vietnamese coal producer Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries (Vinacomin) plans to more than double its thermal coal imports over the next six years to meet an anticipated growth in demand. The state-owned company, which meets most of Vietnam's coal requirements, aims to lift imports to 12.6mn t this year and to 14.5mn t in 2025, and increase its receipts of seaborne thermal coal to 22mn t in 2030, a senior official from the firm told Argus on 25 September. It imported 9.2mn t of coal in 2023. The move to raise imports comes as Vinacomin wants to raise its blended coal supplies to utilities, because it is the key supplier to local coal-fired power plants. Vinacomin typically blends its domestic coal with imported thermal coal to meet utility requirements as anthracite accounts for most of the locally produced coal, and is not preferred by plants for direct use given its low volatile matter content. Vinacomin is also a key supplier of coal to industries such as steel and cement. The coal import plans support Vietnam's overall coal import outlook at a time when the country's seaborne coal receipts are set to reach an all-time high in 2024. Vietnam has imported 45.86mn t of all types of coal in the first eight months of the year, up by about 33pc from a year earlier, according to its customs data . The country could end up importing close to 69mn t of coal this year at the current average rate of 5.73mn t/month, according to Argus calculations, marking Vietnam's highest annual imports since the 55mn t of coal it received in 2020. The imports could reach about 73mn t by 2030 and rise further to peak at around 85mn t in 2035 , according to the government's latest national energy master plan released last year. Vinacomin's strategy to grow imports also comes as Vietnam's domestic coal output has remained rangebound and sluggish. Vinacomin has set a target to produce 37.4mn t this year, up from 36.8mn t it produced last year. Domestic coal output growth faces challenges as there is no near-term plan to explore the Red River delta, which accounts for nearly 86pc of Vietnam's total coal reserves of 48.9bn t. Coal mining in the belt could be ecologically sensitive as the bulk of the land is used for agriculture, while coal projects in the region could also be economically unviable. Vinacomin in 2024 is seeking imported coal with calorific value of NAR 4,800-5800 kcal/kg coal of low and mid-volatile matter coal, with typical sulphur content of 0.6pc to aid its blending efforts, the official said. Vinacomin buys the bulk of the coal via tenders and it refers to international coal indices including Argus' ICI index for Indonesian coal as well as the API index for non-Indonesian coal. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Vinacomin's thermal coal import plan (mn t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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