The tungsten market is evolving quickly and Argus has identified five key developments to watch out for in the market, following the International Tungsten Industry Association (ITIA) conference in Barcelona last week.
Increasing demand for tungsten concentrate
Tungsten scrap availability is declining, which has increased global consumption of tungsten concentrate. China in particular has a growing appetite for tungsten, and tungsten concentrate prices in the country are rising significantly. Between January and August this year, China's tungsten concentrate imports rose by 95pc, driven by strong domestic demand for raw material feedstock which has faced tight supply for the past two years. Furthermore, production costs in the Chinese tungsten market have risen rapidly. According to a panellist, only a few new projects are expected to be operational this year. Argus' European tungsten concentrate price stood at $260-270/kg on 13 November, up by 8pc on the year.
Mergers and acquisitions activity intensifies
The industry is experiencing an uptick in mergers and acquisitions, with more expected in the near term. This aligns with broader trends in the global mining sector. Market sources indicated that they expect one or two acquisitions annually in the tungsten sector, with increased activity projected by next year. Over the next decade, industry consolidation is expected, especially in the US where the market remains fragmented. "Companies have the option to grow organically or through acquiring smaller firms, for instance, in the tooling market," a supplier stated. This consolidation trend is already under way in China, leading to more integrated tungsten supply chains.
Due diligence requirements evolve
There is growing pressure for improved due diligence across the supply chain, although challenges remain. Some downstream consumers are adopting risk-avoidance strategies rather than risk mitigation, asking their entire supply chains to stop sourcing materials from "suspended countries." Disputes regarding due diligence mechanisms amid conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo add complexity in this area. Additionally, with the US increasing tariffs on Chinese tungsten products, Chinese smelters may shift from the Responsible Minerals Assurance Process (RMAP) to their own guidelines, recently introduced in 2023 by the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals and Chemicals Importers and Exporters (CCCMC). This shift could enhance their negotiating leverage and may require cross-recognition between the RMAP and CCCMC, potentially benefiting downstream companies.
Diversification of supply chains
Concerns about a trade war between the US and China and over-reliance on one supplier are driving efforts for supply chain diversification in western countries. The US already charges a 25pc duty on imported Chinese tungsten products. This could escalate under president-elect Donald Trump, who proposed tariffs of up to 60pc on imports from China during his campaign. Notably, China accounts for over 80pc of global tungsten production. Initiatives to diversify sources are under way, such as the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which is expected on line next year. In the US, the Department of Defense is providing funding opportunities for the development of domestic mining. At the moment, Guardian Metals in Nevada is the only project that could come into production in the US in the next three years.
Defence, energy and mining could partially offset auto demand decline
The tungsten industry is exploring new sector applications to address demand shortfalls in the automotive industry. Electric vehicles utilise less metal than gasoline and diesel vehicles. But there is increasing demand from the mining, oil and gas sectors, as well as military applications and aircraft. Market sources have high expectations for tungsten's use in nuclear fusion engines, which are expected to become a reality potentially within three years. In China, demand for tungsten wire in the solar industry has grown owing to the country's decarbonisation targets, although overcapacity in solar glass could affect this demand. And there have been developments in semiconductors, with chipmakers like Nvidia and TSMC using tungsten wires for chip and panel production.
