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Five factors to watch for in the tungsten market

  • Spanish Market: Metals
  • 13/11/24

The tungsten market is evolving quickly and Argus has identified five key developments to watch out for in the market, following the International Tungsten Industry Association (ITIA) conference in Barcelona last week.

Increasing demand for tungsten concentrate

Tungsten scrap availability is declining, which has increased global consumption of tungsten concentrate. China in particular has a growing appetite for tungsten, and tungsten concentrate prices in the country are rising significantly. Between January and August this year, China's tungsten concentrate imports rose by 95pc, driven by strong domestic demand for raw material feedstock which has faced tight supply for the past two years. Furthermore, production costs in the Chinese tungsten market have risen rapidly. According to a panellist, only a few new projects are expected to be operational this year. Argus' European tungsten concentrate price stood at $260-270/kg on 13 November, up by 8pc on the year.

Mergers and acquisitions activity intensifies

The industry is experiencing an uptick in mergers and acquisitions, with more expected in the near term. This aligns with broader trends in the global mining sector. Market sources indicated that they expect one or two acquisitions annually in the tungsten sector, with increased activity projected by next year. Over the next decade, industry consolidation is expected, especially in the US where the market remains fragmented. "Companies have the option to grow organically or through acquiring smaller firms, for instance, in the tooling market," a supplier stated. This consolidation trend is already under way in China, leading to more integrated tungsten supply chains.

Due diligence requirements evolve

There is growing pressure for improved due diligence across the supply chain, although challenges remain. Some downstream consumers are adopting risk-avoidance strategies rather than risk mitigation, asking their entire supply chains to stop sourcing materials from "suspended countries." Disputes regarding due diligence mechanisms amid conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo add complexity in this area. Additionally, with the US increasing tariffs on Chinese tungsten products, Chinese smelters may shift from the Responsible Minerals Assurance Process (RMAP) to their own guidelines, recently introduced in 2023 by the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals and Chemicals Importers and Exporters (CCCMC). This shift could enhance their negotiating leverage and may require cross-recognition between the RMAP and CCCMC, potentially benefiting downstream companies.

Diversification of supply chains

Concerns about a trade war between the US and China and over-reliance on one supplier are driving efforts for supply chain diversification in western countries. The US already charges a 25pc duty on imported Chinese tungsten products. This could escalate under president-elect Donald Trump, who proposed tariffs of up to 60pc on imports from China during his campaign. Notably, China accounts for over 80pc of global tungsten production. Initiatives to diversify sources are under way, such as the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which is expected on line next year. In the US, the Department of Defense is providing funding opportunities for the development of domestic mining. At the moment, Guardian Metals in Nevada is the only project that could come into production in the US in the next three years.

Defence, energy and mining could partially offset auto demand decline

The tungsten industry is exploring new sector applications to address demand shortfalls in the automotive industry. Electric vehicles utilise less metal than gasoline and diesel vehicles. But there is increasing demand from the mining, oil and gas sectors, as well as military applications and aircraft. Market sources have high expectations for tungsten's use in nuclear fusion engines, which are expected to become a reality potentially within three years. In China, demand for tungsten wire in the solar industry has grown owing to the country's decarbonisation targets, although overcapacity in solar glass could affect this demand. And there have been developments in semiconductors, with chipmakers like Nvidia and TSMC using tungsten wires for chip and panel production.


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13/11/24

US inflation rises in October to 2.6pc

US inflation rises in October to 2.6pc

Houston, 13 November (Argus) — US inflation ticked higher in October, led by monthly gains in shelter, a reminder that the last lap in the Federal Reserve's marathon to bring inflation to its long-term target remains a challenge. The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to an annual 2.6pc in October, in line with analysts' forecasts in a survey by Trading Economics, from 2.4pc in September, which was the lowest since February 2021, the Labor Department reported today. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 3.3pc rate, unchanged on the month. The energy index contracted by 4.9pc over the 12 months, slowing from a decline of 6.8pc through September. The gasoline index fell by 12.2pc, slowing from a 15.3pc decrease the prior month. The fuel oil index fell by 20.8pc. Federal Reserve policymakers last week cut the target rate by a quarter point, following a half-point cut in September that kicked off an easing cycle from then-23-year highs. Inflation has slowed to near the Fed's 2pc target from highs above 9pc in mid-2022 that proved to be a major impetus behind president-elect Donald Trump's victory at the ballot box on 5 November. The CME's FedWatch tool today gives near-80pc odds of another quarter-point cut in December. "The economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower" in adjusting rates lower, Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters last week after the Fed decision. The food index rose by an annual 2.1pc, slowing from a 2.3pc gain through September. Shelter rose by an annual 4.9pc, unchanged. Transportation services rose by 8.2pc. New vehicles fell by 1.3pc while used vehicle prices fell by 3.4pc. Services less energy services, viewed as core services, rose by 4.8pc. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2pc in October, a fourth month of such gains after falling by 0.1pc in June. Core inflation rose by 0.3pc for a third month. Shelter accelerated to a 0.4pc monthly gain, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase, after a 0.2pc gain. Energy was unchanged in October after falling by 1.9pc in September from the prior month. Food rose by 0.2pc on the month, following a 0.4pc gain. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CNGR’s NNI produces high-grade Ni matte in Indonesia


13/11/24
13/11/24

CNGR’s NNI produces high-grade Ni matte in Indonesia

Singapore, 13 November (Argus) — Nadesico Nickel Industry (NNI), the Indonesian subsidiary of major Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material (CAM) precursor manufacturer CNGR, produced its first batch of high-grade nickel matte (HGNM) on 6 November. NNI has the capacity to produce nickel pig iron (NPI), low-grade nickel matte (LGNM) or HGNM, depending on market conditions and profitability. The company is ramping up six production lines in north Morowali, Central Sulawesi, while simultaneously constructing another two lines. LGNM production capacity stands at around 80,000 t/yr in nickel metal equivalent, while the full ramp-up of all production lines could yield up to 40,000t of nickel metal equivalent in HGNM, according to CNGR. But market participants anticipate that the NNI project will primarily focus on NPI production, with each production line having a capacity of around 12,000 t/yr in nickel metal equivalent in NPI. HGNM is used in the production of nickel sulphate, a feedstock for lithium-nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide CAM battery or nickel production. CNGR operates another HGNM project in Indonesia with a production capacity of 60,000 t/yr in nickel metal equivalent, along with two other projects producing LGNM, with a combined nameplate capacity of 55,000 t/yr. CNGR, from its Indonesian operations, produced approximately 60,000t in nickel metal equivalent from January to September. This figure excludes output from its first and only class I nickel Indonesian refinery, ZWDX, which commenced production in June 2023 and has a nameplate capacity of 50,000 t/yr. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU steelmakers ask for scrap export curbs


12/11/24
12/11/24

EU steelmakers ask for scrap export curbs

London, 12 November (Argus) — European steel producers association Eurofer continues to lobby the European Commission to curb scrap exports as the industry looks to decarbonise. On 12 November, Eurofer reiterated its view that the commission "recognise steel scrap as a strategic secondary raw material under the critical Raw Material Act, ensure the robust implementation and effective enforcement of the revised EU Waste Shipment Regulation to ensure compliance with the EU environmental standards in third countries and avoid circumvention, while securing a sustainable and diversified raw materials supply by leveraging bilateral Free Trade Agreements, granting reciprocal market access and eliminating illegal export bans and other distortions." EU scrap consumption is due to increase significantly in the coming years. "Scrap exports to third countries without comparable environmental and social standards [therefore] need to be restricted to ensure that the use of ferrous scrap generated in the EU contributes to sustainability objectives aligned with the EU ones," Eurofer said. The EU has long been a net exporter of ferrous scrap, with outflows of the material standing just shy of 11mn t in the first eight months of this year, customs figures show. Last year the EU exported 17.67mn t of ferrous scrap, a 5pc rise on the year. The bloc's trade has always been heavily focused on Turkey, the world's largest importer of ferrous scrap, with annual trade ranging from over half to two-thirds of total exported volumes in the past five years. Turkey, with around three-quarters of steel production based on electric arc furnace route, is heavily reliant on European-origin material. Turkey's share of EU exports increased in recent years after the UK left the EU, but the share of shipments from the bloc started rising from the second half of the mid-2010s, when Russia, another major ferrous scrap supplier to Turkey, started restricting exports. Russian exports of scrap to Turkey fell from around 2.5mn t in 2018, to 1.9mn t in 2019 and 2021 and to just over 400,000t in 2022-24. The EU's major trading partners for scrap include Egypt, India and Pakistan, all of which are third countries to the EU and non-OECD countries whose import volumes have been increasing as Asia continued to grow its steelmaking capacities, mostly through the IF (induction furnace) route. The EU's intention to restrict scrap exports has been deeply unsettling for the many developing markets' representatives, as much as its movement towards the implementation of CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), which will reduce the possibility of exports to the EU from countries where steelmaking processes and carbon emissions are not compliant with the EU's stricter standards. By Corey Aunger and Katya Ourakova Annual EU-27 ferrous scrap exports metric tonnes Country 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Turkey 11,247,281.0 12,676,091.0 10,327,403.0 10,088,491.0 6,826,876.0 Egypt 1,076,930.0 1,810,866.0 1,431,831.0 1,570,352.0 1,237,722.0 India 443,130.0 294,994.0 1,108,881.0 1,906,608.0 576,008.0 Pakistan 853,178.0 727,466.0 700,879.0 731,182.0 371,943.0 Switzerland 455,034.0 511,098.0 463,440.0 339,894.0 355,709.0 Norway 314,627.0 294,956.0 396,933.0 451,873.0 309,299.0 Morocco 197,803.0 329,901.0 556,417.0 442,498.0 258,630.0 UK 361,741.0 307,281.0 307,173.0 275,125.0 203,786.0 US 622,523.0 574,264.0 316,077.0 694,507.0 182,064.0 Moldova (Rep. of) 251,184.0 344,609.0 79,788.0 192,964.0 179,579.0 Republic of North Macedonia 74,951.0 106,400.0 112,176.0 165,404.0 115,626.0 Bangladesh 107,611.0 149,570.0 700,108.0 388,936.0 91,410.0 Total 16,371,459 18,542,680 16,843,989 17,674,602 10,822,245 2024 data for January to August — Customs and Eurostat data Turkey's total and European scrap imports, 2010-24 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s scrap export tender slips in November


12/11/24
12/11/24

Japan’s scrap export tender slips in November

Shanghai, 12 November (Argus) — The monthly Japanese scrap dealer co-operative Kanto Tetsugen's export tender registered a lower result in November driven by a softening seaborne market. The tender for 15,000t of H2 scrap settled at ¥45,180/t fas today, marking a decline of ¥500/t from October. This set the fob price at an equivalent of ¥46,180/t, or $300/t. The outcome was higher than the initial expectation of ¥44,000-44,500/t fas. Despite the result showing only a marginal decline, the dollar-equivalent price fell by $15/t to $300/t fob Japan because of the depreciation of the Japanese yen. The yen fell by 3.64pc from 9 October to ¥153.64:$1 today. The tender cargo will be shipped to Vietnam, trade sources said. Export negotiations to Vietnam have been limited in recent weeks as sellers are holding back because of a vessel shortage. Participating in the Kanto tender is the optimal choice for Vietnamese buyers if they have restocking demand, a local trader said. The cfr price, including the quality premium for tender cargo, should be $340-345/t. The Argus H2 fob Japan assessment was at ¥43,600/t on 11 November, and the October monthly average was ¥43,882/t fob Japan. The H2 collection price at Tokyo Steel's Utsunomiya plant was ¥41,500/t delivered to the mill. Traders expect Tokyo Steel to increase the collection price to align with the higher price in the seaborne market. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Slow H2 progress risks shipping, steel net-zero goals


11/11/24
11/11/24

Slow H2 progress risks shipping, steel net-zero goals

London, 11 November (Argus) — Efforts to keep the steel and shipping sectors on track for the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target and for net-zero emissions by 2050 are being hampered by the clean hydrogen sector's slow progress, industry participants said on a panel hosted by Paris-based intergovernmental group OECD ahead of the UN climate summit Cop 29. Clean hydrogen will be crucial to decarbonise the steel and shipping sectors because initiatives such as direct electrification and increased energy efficiency will be insufficient to reach net-zero emissions, panellists said. But ensuring supply of clean hydrogen and derivatives at scale and within the timeline required to meet climate goals has proved a challenge. The two sectors together represent 10pc of global CO2 emissions and they would require 10mn-15mn t/yr of low-emissions hydrogen by 2030 in order to be on track for net zero by 2050, OECD environment directorate policy analyst Joseph Cordonnie said. Adapting to the deployment of hydrogen or derivatives in both sectors will take time, considering vessels and plants have a long life, so change needs to accelerate to avoid "emissions lock-in", Cordonnie said. The global steel sector would require around 70 commercial-scale green steel plants by early 2030s to "stay as close as possible" to the 1.5°C target, according to Faustine Delasalle, chief executive at Mission Possible Partnership, a private sector initiative aimed at promoting the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate industries. Around 60 green steel projects have been announced, but fewer than 10 have reached final investment decision (FID), Delasalle said. Fewer than 10 projects targeting production of hydrogen-based fuels such as ammonia or e-methanol specifically for bunkering have reached FID, she said. Technology to decarbonise these heavy industries has progressed significantly over the last years, but "there is a lag" between technological advancements and industrial-scale investment and developers are struggling with project economics, Delasalle said. Many projects for production of hydrogen or derivatives have recently been delayed or cancelled. Demand for products throughout the value chain has not moved at the necessary scale, Delasalle said. While there is voluntary demand for 'green' industrial products, overall demand has not reached a level that can unlock greater investment for projects to scale up, she said. Waiting for the market to balance itself will not deliver decarbonisation, according to Delasalle. Even generous policy support for production such as the US' IRA scheme has not been enough for projects to build a strong business case. This shows the need for measures that "enable the green product to be more competitive versus the grey", like carbon pricing, "the removal of fossil fuel subsidies" and instruments that "drive demand for green commodities regardless of the price", such as mandates and carbon intensity thresholds, she said. Subsidies represented less than 5pc of funding for Swedish green steel producer Stegra's project in Sweden, the firm's public affairs director Ola Hansen said. Stegra has seen demand from offtakers who are voluntarily cutting lifecycle emissions, but "what we really need is carbon pricing and to take away the fossil fuel subsidies," Hansen said. "It's hard to compete with unpriced fossil fuel emissions," he said. By Pamela Machado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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