The UN Cop 30 climate talks in Brazil next year may take on a new level of importance after countries at the now-completed Cop 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, left some significant issues on the table, most notably now to keep the world on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Negotiators in Baku completed their work just after 05:30 local time (01:30 GMT) on Sunday — nearly a day and a half after the scheduled end of the Cop — with a deal on climate finance that has left developing countries furious.
The Indian negotiator called the finance agreement, which the country opposed after it was gavelled, "nothing more than an optical illusion". She complained that the text was adopted even though they had informed the secretariat they wanted to make a statement before its adoption. Nigeria and Bolivia came out in support to India to say were rejecting the deal, with the latter calling the agreement "an insult".
Known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG), the deal sets a target of "at least" $300bn/yr for developing countries by 2035, with developed countries "taking the lead". The goal is meant to build on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. The finance will come from "a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources".
This is more than the $250bn/yr first proposed by developed countries. But this is well below the $1.3 trillion, including $440bn-600bn/yr in public finance mostly in grants and concessional finance, sought by developing economies.
The delegations salvaged what for a time appeared to be talks headed for collapse, with two groups temporarily walking out of the negotiations. But developing countries indicated that the Baku deals falls far short of what they need to deal with climate change and support their energy transition.
"They were never going to be enough," special envoy for climate change and environment for Vanuatu Ralph Regenvanu said. "And even then, based on our experience with such pledges in the past, we know they will not be fulfilled," he said.
India's negotiator pointed to the "unwillingness from developed countries to fulfill their responsibilities". This will severely impact growth in developing nations, she added.
EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, the only developed party to take the floor just after the finance deal was agreed, said that increasing the goal three-fold, from $100bn/yr, "is ambitious, needed, realistic and achievable". He said that with the help of the multilateral development banks (MDBs), the bloc is confident $1.3 trillion/yr of climate finance for developing economies could be reached.
Baku to Belem
The finance deal agreed in Baku calls on all actors "to enable the scaling up of financing" from all public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035. A "Baku to Belem Roadmap to $1.3 trillion", was launched to that effect.
The only other major decision to come out of Baku was the adoption of the rules that will operationalise the international carbon market under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
Progress on the implementation of the first global stocktake — the main outcome document from Cop 28, which included the historic call to transition away from fossil fuels — was left for next year.
The talks failed to overcome a broad north-south divide and were hampered by the finance talks and efforts by some delegations to undo past decisions.
Developed countries called for stronger global action on emissions reductions, but developing nations responded that they cannot implement an energy transition without adequate finance. Many Latin American and African nations, as well as island states, also complained during the talks about the lack of mitigation ambition.
But countries including Saudi Arabia opposed including language on fossil fuels, or any mention that countries should undertake deep emissions cuts. India even pushed back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement, which was reinforced in Dubai last year.
The rejected draft text for the stocktake reaffirms "the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5 °C pathways". It refers to the energy package without going into details, and keeps the door open to "transitional fuels".
Parties will revisit mitigation next year in Belem, leaving Baku "with a mountain of work to do," according to UN climate body UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell.
Mitigation was always going to be the focus of Cop 30, particularly with countries due to submit their new emissions-reduction pledges, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs), to the UNFCCC by February. But the struggle in Baku could bring new pressure to the Brazilian government. The country's environment minister Maria Silva on Saturday warned that failure in Baku would likely damage the UN process, especially with the US, one of the world's leading emitters, expected to exit the Paris Agreement again after former president Donald Trump takes office in January.
