Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Cop: Talks leave ‘mountain of work’ for Brazil in 2025

  • Market: Emissions
  • 24/11/24

The UN Cop 30 climate talks in Brazil next year may take on a new level of importance after countries at the now-completed Cop 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, left some significant issues on the table, most notably now to keep the world on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Negotiators in Baku completed their work just after 05:30 local time (01:30 GMT) on Sunday — nearly a day and a half after the scheduled end of the Cop — with a deal on climate finance that has left developing countries furious.

The Indian negotiator called the finance agreement, which the country opposed after it was gavelled, "nothing more than an optical illusion". She complained that the text was adopted even though they had informed the secretariat they wanted to make a statement before its adoption. Nigeria and Bolivia came out in support to India to say were rejecting the deal, with the latter calling the agreement "an insult".

Known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG), the deal sets a target of "at least" $300bn/yr for developing countries by 2035, with developed countries "taking the lead". The goal is meant to build on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. The finance will come from "a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources".

This is more than the $250bn/yr first proposed by developed countries. But this is well below the $1.3 trillion, including $440bn-600bn/yr in public finance mostly in grants and concessional finance, sought by developing economies.

The delegations salvaged what for a time appeared to be talks headed for collapse, with two groups temporarily walking out of the negotiations. But developing countries indicated that the Baku deals falls far short of what they need to deal with climate change and support their energy transition.

"They were never going to be enough," special envoy for climate change and environment for Vanuatu Ralph Regenvanu said. "And even then, based on our experience with such pledges in the past, we know they will not be fulfilled," he said.

India's negotiator pointed to the "unwillingness from developed countries to fulfill their responsibilities". This will severely impact growth in developing nations, she added.

EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, the only developed party to take the floor just after the finance deal was agreed, said that increasing the goal three-fold, from $100bn/yr, "is ambitious, needed, realistic and achievable". He said that with the help of the multilateral development banks (MDBs), the bloc is confident $1.3 trillion/yr of climate finance for developing economies could be reached.

Baku to Belem

The finance deal agreed in Baku calls on all actors "to enable the scaling up of financing" from all public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035. A "Baku to Belem Roadmap to $1.3 trillion", was launched to that effect.

The only other major decision to come out of Baku was the adoption of the rules that will operationalise the international carbon market under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Progress on the implementation of the first global stocktake — the main outcome document from Cop 28, which included the historic call to transition away from fossil fuels — was left for next year.

The talks failed to overcome a broad north-south divide and were hampered by the finance talks and efforts by some delegations to undo past decisions.

Developed countries called for stronger global action on emissions reductions, but developing nations responded that they cannot implement an energy transition without adequate finance. Many Latin American and African nations, as well as island states, also complained during the talks about the lack of mitigation ambition.

But countries including Saudi Arabia opposed including language on fossil fuels, or any mention that countries should undertake deep emissions cuts. India even pushed back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement, which was reinforced in Dubai last year.

The rejected draft text for the stocktake reaffirms "the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5 °C pathways". It refers to the energy package without going into details, and keeps the door open to "transitional fuels".

Parties will revisit mitigation next year in Belem, leaving Baku "with a mountain of work to do," according to UN climate body UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell.

Mitigation was always going to be the focus of Cop 30, particularly with countries due to submit their new emissions-reduction pledges, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs), to the UNFCCC by February. But the struggle in Baku could bring new pressure to the Brazilian government. The country's environment minister Maria Silva on Saturday warned that failure in Baku would likely damage the UN process, especially with the US, one of the world's leading emitters, expected to exit the Paris Agreement again after former president Donald Trump takes office in January.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
01/05/25

US bill would extend expired biofuel credits

US bill would extend expired biofuel credits

New York, 1 May (Argus) — Legislation soon to be introduced in the US House would extend expired biofuel incentives through 2026, potentially providing a reprieve to refiners that have curbed production this year because of policy uncertainty. The bill, which will be sponsored by US representative Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and some other Republicans on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, according to a person familiar, could be introduced as soon as today. It would prolong both the long-running $1/USG for blenders of biomass-based diesel and a separate incentive that offers up to $1.01/USG for producers of cellulosic ethanol. The credits expired at the end of last year but under the proposal would be extended through both 2025 and 2026. The incentives would run alongside the Inflation Reduction Act's new "45Z" credit for clean fuel producers, which offers a sliding scale of benefits based on carbon intensity, though the bill would prevent double claiming of credits, according to bill text shared with Argus . The 45Z credit is less generous across the board to road fuels — offering $1/USG only for carbon-neutral fuels and much less for crop-based diesels — and is still in need of final rules after President Joe Biden's administration issued only preliminary guidance around qualifying. The proposal then would effectively offer a more generous alternative through 2026 for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and cellulosic ethanol but not for other fuels that can claim the technology-neutral 45Z incentive. That could upend the economics of renewable fuel production. Vegetable oil-based diesels for instance could claim the blenders credit and earn more than aviation fuels that draw from the same feedstocks. According to Argus Consulting estimates, aviation fuels derived from wastes like distillers corn oil and domestic used cooking should still earn more than $1/USG this year, conversely, since 45Z is more generous to aviation fuels. Extending the biodiesel blenders credit would also allow foreign fuel imports to again claim federal subsidies, a boost for Finnish refiner Neste and the ailing Canadian biofuel startup Braya Renewable Fuels but a controversial provision for US refiners and feedstock suppliers. The 45Z incentive can only be claimed by US producers. The blenders incentive is also popular among fuel marketer groups, which have warned that shifting subsidies to producers could up fuel costs. The proposal adds to a contentious debate taking place across the biofuel value chain about what the future of clean fuel incentives should look like. Some industry groups see a wholesale reversion to preexisting biofuel credits — or even a temporary period where various partly overlapping incentives coexist — as a tough sell to cost-concerned lawmakers and have instead pushed for revamping 45Z. A proposal last month backed by some farm groups would keep the 45Z incentive but ban foreign feedstocks and adjust carbon intensity modeling to benefit crops. Republicans could keep, modify, extend, or repeal the 45Z incentive as part of negotiations around a larger tax bill this year. But the caucus is still negotiating how much to reduce the federal budget deficit and what to do with Inflation Reduction Act incentives that have spurred clean energy projects in conservative districts. Uncertainty about the future of biofuel policy and sharply lower margins to start 2025 have led to a recently pronounced drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel production . President Donald Trump's administration is working on new biofuel blend mandates, which could be proposed in the coming weeks, but has said little about its plans for biofuel tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024


30/04/25
News
30/04/25

Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024

Sao Paulo, 30 April (Argus) — Brazil's mines and energy ministry's (MME) energy transition spending shrank by 83pc in 2024 from the prior year, while resources for fossil fuel incentives remained unchanged, according to the institute of socioeconomic studies Inesc. The MME's energy transition budget was R141,413 ($24,980) in 2024, down from R835,237 in the year prior. MME had only two energy transition-oriented projects under its umbrella last year: biofuels industry studies and renewable power incentives, which represented a combined 0.002pc of its total R7bn budget. Still, despite available resources, MME did not approve any projects for renewable power incentives. It also only used 50pc of its budget for biofuel studies, Inesc said. Even as supply from non-conventional power sources advances , most spending in Brazil's grid revamp — including enhancements to better integrate solar and wind generation — comes from charges paid by consumers through power tariffs, Inesc said. Diverging energy spending Brazil's federal government also cut its energy transition budget for 2025 by 17pc from last year and created a new energy transition program that also pushes for increased fossil fuel usage. The country's energy transition budget for 2025 is R3.64bn, down from R4.44bn in 2024. The new program — also under MME's umbrella — has a budget of around R10mn, with more than half of it destined to studies related to the oil and natural gas industry, Inesc said. A second MME program — which invests in studies in the oil, natural gas, products and biofuels sectors — has an approved budget of R53.1mn. The science and technology ministry is the only in Brazil that increased its energy transition spending for 2025, with R3.03bn approved, a near threefold hike from R800mn in 2024. Spending will focus on the domestic industry sector's energy transition, Inesc said. Climate activists have criticized Brazil for not planning to phase out fossil fuels before, including criticisms to the first letter written by the UN Cop 30 summit's president. The country will hold the summit in November in northern Para state. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Brazil's Biomas advances forest restoration project


30/04/25
News
30/04/25

Brazil's Biomas advances forest restoration project

Sao Paulo, 30 April (Argus) — Brazilian reforestation company Biomas cleared its first restoration project for a 1,200-hectare (ha) area of the Atlantic rainforest in southern Bahia state. The Mucununga project, which will require initial investments of R55mn ($9.7mn), involved planting 70 native species, with the goal of regenerating the ecosystem in the region. The project is in one of the most biodiverse regions on the planet, where only 26pc of native vegetation remains intact. The project is part of the Biomas' broader goal of restoring 2mn ha of tropical forest over the next 20 years. The project will generate 500,000 carbon credits over the next 20 years, the sale of which will be used to finance other restoration projects. Brazilian pulp company Veracel owns the land for the project, across eight municipalities in the state. Biomas was created in 2022 and its shareholders include Brazilian companies such as miner Vale, pulp and paper company Suzano, bank Itau and meat packer Marfrig. Mucununga is one of many tropical forest restoration projects underway in Brazil and will help contribute to Brazil's Planaveg program, which has the goal of restoring and reforesting 12mn ha by 2030. Brazil is seeking to showcase its potential to provide carbon credits and offsets through the protection of its standing forests and the restoration of previously deforested areas ahead of the UN Cop 30 climate summit, which will be held in northern Para state in November. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

DG Fuels eyes larger, later Louisiana SAF plant


29/04/25
News
29/04/25

DG Fuels eyes larger, later Louisiana SAF plant

New York, 29 April (Argus) — US renewable fuels company DG Fuels intends to produce more sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) than it initially planned at its flagship Louisiana project, albeit on a later timeline. DG Fuels president Christopher Chaput told Argus that the company is working to reach a final investment decision on its Louisiana facility by the first quarter of next year and is on track to start delivering "meaningful" amounts of SAF from the site in 2030, later than initially expected. The company continues to look at other potential facilities across the country but is prioritizing its Louisiana plant, which will use the Fischer-Tropsch chemical process to gasify agricultural waste into low-carbon fuels. "Not exclusively, but we are focusing really, really, really hard on the first project, which is Louisiana," Chaput said. Potential sites in Nebraska and Minnesota are the next-furthest along, and the company still owns land in Maine where it could build a similar SAF plant. The facilities would use similar technology but draw from different feedstocks, such as local forest or agricultural waste, and different types of hydrogen. The plan in Louisiana is to produce blue hydrogen, which involves capturing carbon emissions and is eligible for a federal tax credit. That Louisiana facility has also expanded in size, and Chaput says it could ultimately produce 195-200mn USG/yr of fuel — up from estimates last year and an initial projection of 120mn USG/yr. Chaput says the plant's size — which would give it the highest capacity of all Fischer-Tropsch SAF plants planned globally according to Argus estimates — will be an advantage for ultimately producing a cost-competitive fuel. Other potential DG Fuels facilities would be similarly large, a different approach from some other US developers like Aether Fuels, Natural State Renewables and now-defunct Fulcrum Bioenergy that have eyed a similar production process on smaller sites. Some biofuel producers already operational today use a separate process to produce SAF, hydroprocessing vegetable oils and animal fats, and have higher production capacities. But that pathway could ultimately be limited by feedstock constraints and competition from renewable diesel, analysts say, which has spurred investors and airlines to look at other potential pathways. While plants eyeing production in the 2030s might be less exposed to immediate policy risks, biofuel producers in the US have struggled to start 2025 as margins crash from the halting rollout of a new federal tax credit and delayed blend mandates. President Donald Trump's aggressive efforts to curb renewables have scared climate tech start-ups, though Trump has also voiced general support for some other clean energy sources, including biofuels. A government loan to support US refiner Calumet's efforts to produce more SAF was briefly halted this year and then [unpaused]( https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2656961) after a Republican US senator intervened. And policies abroad — including increasingly stringent SAF mandates in the EU and UK — could ultimately support clean fuel developers in the US even if incentives shift stateside. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump return complicates climate talks: Cop 30 head


29/04/25
News
29/04/25

Trump return complicates climate talks: Cop 30 head

New York, 29 April (Argus) — This year's UN Cop 30 climate talks will proceed with a key goal of scaling up climate finance, but US president Donald Trump's disruptive return to the White House has made efforts to reduce emissions more challenging, according to the Brazilian official leading the summit. Continuing the fight to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions "is going to be a slightly uphill battle, but I think it's the right one," Brazil climate secretary and Cop 30 president André Corrêa Do Lago said Tuesday at the BNEF Summit in New York City. "The international context could help a little more", Corrêa Do Lago said, drawing laughter from the audience. Trump moved quickly after beginning his second term to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, an exit that will formally take effect in January 2026. He has started to impede US development of renewable energy projects he sees as boondoggles, but he is facing challenges to his attempts to halt government funding and tax credits for the sector. It is unclear if the US will send a delegation to the Cop 30 summit this year, which is scheduled to take place in Belem, Brazil, in November. Corrêa Do Lago said that invitations have not yet been sent to prospective participants. He also made a distinction between the US government and others in the US, including state and businesses leaders, that have pledged to continue supporting GHG emissions reductions even as the Trump administration moves to boost oil and gas. Publicly, countries have not changed their tune on climate in response to the US policy shifts. But Corrêa Do Lago said that privately there are "some that say, ‘God, how am I going to convince my people that I have to try to lower emissions if the richest country in the world is not doing the same?'" Corrêa Do Lago said that this year's summit needs to focus less on technical negotiations over documents that might never be implemented as a result, and more about making an economic appeal for decarbonization and hosting more of a "Cop of solutions, a Cop of action". He reiterated the Brazilian government's goal of increasing climate financing for developing countries from the target set at Cop 29 of $300bn/yr by 2035 to the far higher target of $1.3 trillion/yr. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more