Trump return complicates climate talks: Cop 30 head

Market: Electricity, Emissions
29/04/25

This year's UN Cop 30 climate talks will proceed with a key goal of scaling up climate finance, but US president Donald Trump's disruptive return to the White House has made efforts to reduce emissions more challenging, according to the Brazilian official leading the summit.

Continuing the fight to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions "is going to be a slightly uphill battle, but I think it's the right one," Brazil climate secretary and Cop 30 president André Corrêa Do Lago said Tuesday at the BNEF Summit in New York City.

"The international context could help a little more", Corrêa Do Lago said, drawing laughter from the audience.

Trump moved quickly after beginning his second term to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, an exit that will formally take effect in January 2026. He has started to impede US development of renewable energy projects he sees as boondoggles, but he is facing challenges to his attempts to halt government funding and tax credits for the sector.

It is unclear if the US will send a delegation to the Cop 30 summit this year, which is scheduled to take place in Belem, Brazil, in November. Corrêa Do Lago said that invitations have not yet been sent to prospective participants. He also made a distinction between the US government and others in the US, including state and businesses leaders, that have pledged to continue supporting GHG emissions reductions even as the Trump administration moves to boost oil and gas.

Publicly, countries have not changed their tune on climate in response to the US policy shifts. But Corrêa Do Lago said that privately there are "some that say, ‘God, how am I going to convince my people that I have to try to lower emissions if the richest country in the world is not doing the same?'"

Corrêa Do Lago said that this year's summit needs to focus less on technical negotiations over documents that might never be implemented as a result, and more about making an economic appeal for decarbonization and hosting more of a "Cop of solutions, a Cop of action". He reiterated the Brazilian government's goal of increasing climate financing for developing countries from the target set at Cop 29 of $300bn/yr by 2035 to the far higher target of $1.3 trillion/yr.

By Cole Martin

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05/05/25

Australia’s election gives LNG, fuels sector certainty

Sydney, 5 May (Argus) — Australia's governing Labor party's second majority term could mean that changes to the offshore permitting regime promised last year are signed into law, while east coast LNG businesses will avoid a planned reservation system proposed by the opposition. Labor's victory at the 3 May election combined with the election of fewer members from the Greens party and climate-focused independents, could mean it faces less pressure to cancel fossil fuel projects. But it will remain reliant on the Greens to pass laws through the nation's upper house — the senate — meaning Labor may need to negotiate the passage of bills with the leftist party if the Liberal-National-based coalition opposes its measures. The Greens ran on a promise to ban new coal, oil and gas projects but won fewer seats than in 2022 because of preference flows. A federal decision on the lifetime extension of the Woodside Energy-operated 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) LNG delayed by Labor, is now looking more positive for the firm. The firm sees approval as vital to progressing its Browse gas development offshore northwestern Australia. Voters' rejection of the opposition Coalition on the nation's east coast means its policy to reserve a further 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) from the Gladstone-based LNG exporters will not proceed. The result provides an opportunity for certainty and stability for the energy sector, upstream lobby Australian Energy Producers said. The group urged the government to focus on new supply as Australia's gas reserves for domestic use rapidly deplete. The government will need to specify exactly how it aims to secure supplies to ensure stable supply, once coal-fired generators retire at the end of the 2020s and into the 2030s. This is because the nation's integrated system plan is based on Labor's policy of reaching 82pc renewable energy in the power grid, backed up by about 15GW of gas-fired power. Industry will await further direction stemming from the Future Gas Strategy which canvassed solutions to Australia's declining gas supply including new pipelines, storage and seasonal LNG imports. Permitting concerns In the government's previous three-year term, a series of court-ordered requirements to consult with affected Aboriginal groups briefly disrupted multi-billion dollar LNG developments. Labor promised to specify through new laws exactly which groups must be consulted before approvals could be granted. But these were dropped from the agenda in early 2024 following opposition by the Greens. Labor's resources minister Madeleine King blamed the Greens for obstructionist manoeuvres on this legislation, but it remains unclear if and when Labor might introduce such laws. Conversely, the Coalition promised to end government support for anti-gas lobbies such as law group the Environmental Defenders Office — set to continue under Labor. In liquid fuels, Labor's victory should boost Australia's electric vehicle (EV) sales, with emissions standards laws set to remain enforced. The Coalition had said it would soften the laws because of concern over cost of living pressures. Plans to temporarily cut the fuel excise will also not progress. Australia's EV take-up has stalled, and industry has blamed this on poor investment in recharging infrastructure and other policy settings, including the removal of the fringe benefits tax exemption for plug-in hybrid car models. A re-elected Labor government is likely to further policy towards a mandate for sustainable aviation fuel or renewable diesel, given the growing share of Australia's emissions projected to come from the transport industry. It pledged A$250mn ($162mn) for low-carbon liquid fuels development in March , for low-carbon liquid fuels development in March, as part of its commitment to the nascent sector. Local market participants are optimistic that further biofuels support will be provided as urgency to meet net zero ambitions builds, including a 2030 target of 43pc lower emissions based on 2005 levels. About A$6bn/yr of feedstocks like canola, tallow and used cooking oil are exported from Australia, while existing ethanol and biodiesel producers are running underutilised plants, making about 175mn litres/yr at present, because of poorly-enforced blending mandates. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia re-elects renewable-focused Labor party

05/05/25

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05/05/25

Australia re-elects renewable-focused Labor party

Sydney, 5 May (Argus) — Australia's Labor party has been voted in for another term in a landslide majority, reaffirming the party's targets on renewable energy and emissions reduction. The election held on 3 May saw overwhelming support for the incumbent Labor government led by prime minister Anthony Albanese, which prioritised renewable energy, compared to the opposition's plans to install nuclear plants to replace coal-fired power . Labor now face pressure to meet key energy policy targets, including 82pc renewable energy in electricity grids by 2030 and a 43pc reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on 2005 levels by 2030. The government said late last year that Australia was on track to reduce emissions by 42.6pc by 2030 , nearly within the target and rising from previous estimates of 37pc in 2023 and 32pc in 2022. This was mostly because of the reformed safeguard mechanism , the expanded Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and the fuel efficiency standards for new passenger and light commercial vehicles. Lobby groups now expect the government to set a strong 2035 emissions reduction target , within the range of 65-75pc below 2005 levels indicated last year by the Climate Change Authority (CCA). The CCA is yet to formally recommend a target, and the government will then need to make a decision and submit Australia's next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement later this year. In metals, a plan to buy critical minerals from commercial projects and keep stockpiles to steady prices by withholding or releasing stock will now be pursued by the re-elected government. The previous Albanese government was not forthcoming in meeting calls for a biofuels mandate or production incentives but it announced it would allocate A$250mn ($162mn) of its A$1.7bn Future Made in Australia innovation fund to low-carbon fuels (LCLF) research and development in March. In agriculture, a planned ban on live sheep exports will go ahead by 1 May 2028 under laws passed last year. The coalition campaigned heavily to revoke the laws, but the re-election of Labor has raised concerns in the live export sector. By Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts

02/05/25

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02/05/25

Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts

Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — Australia's federal Coalition opposition has announced it will cut key energy rebates and resource sector subsidies, if elected on 3 May, to reduce forecast future budget deficits. The Peter Dutton-led opposition will cut programs, including the Labor government's A$20bn ($12.8bn) Rewiring the Nation transmission plan, and the A$15bn National Reconstruction Fund aimed at underwriting green manufacturing using domestic minerals. It will also unwind electric vehicle tax concessions to save A$3.2bn, and cancel planned production tax credits for critical minerals processing and green hydrogen estimated to cost A$14.7bn. Combined savings measures will improve the budget's position by A$13.9bn over the four years to 2028-29, the Coalition said on 1 May, cutting debt by A$40bn during the same timeframe. The announcement comes as opinion polls show Australia's next federal government is likely to force one of the two major parties into minority, after a campaign where cost-of-living relief promises have trumped economic reform policy. The centre-left Labor party is more likely than the conservative Coalition to form government at the 3 May poll. It holds a thin majority of just three seats in parliament's main chamber, the House of Representatives, meaning a swing against it would force it to deal with minor parties such as the Greens and independent groupings. Promising a stable government, as Australia emerged from Covid-19, Labor had benefited from a resources boom as Russia's invasion of Ukraine led LNG and coal receipts to skyrocket and China's emergence from lockdowns revitalised its demand for iron ore, which jointly form the nation's main commodity exports. But as markets adjust to a period of protectionist trade policy and predictions of a slowdown in global growth abound, economists have criticised the major parties' reluctance to embrace major reform on areas such as taxation, while continuing to spend at elevated levels post-pandemic. Australia's resource and energy commodity exports are forecast to fall to A$387bn in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025 from A$415bn in 2023–24. The Office of the Chief Economist is predicting further falls over the next five years, reaching A$343bn in 2029-30, lowering expected government revenue from company tax and royalties. Gas The Coalition has pledged a domestic reservation scheme for the east coast, forcing 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) into the grid by penalising spot LNG cargoes. Australia's upstream lobby has opposed this, but rapidly declining reserves offshore Victoria state mean gas may need to be imported to the nation's south, depending on the success of electrification efforts and an uncertain timeline for coal-fired power retirements. Labor has resisted such further gas interventions , but it is unclear how it will reverse a trend of rising gas prices and diminishing domestic supply, despite releasing a future gas plan last year. The party is promising 82pc renewables nationally by 2030, meaning it will have to nearly double the 2025 year-to-date figure of 42pc. This could require 15GW of gas-fired capacity by 2050 to firm the grid. On environmental policy, narrowing polls mean Labor's likely partners in government could be the anti-fossil fuel Greens and climate-focused independents — just some of the present crossbench of 16 out of a parliament of 151. The crossbench may drive a climate trigger requirement in any changes to environmental assessments, which could rule out new or brownfield coal and gas projects. Coal has been conspicuously absent from policy debates, but Labor has criticised the Coalition's nuclear energy policy as expensive and unproven, while the Coalition has said Labor's renewables-led grid would be unstable and costly because of new transmission requirements. The impact of the US tariff shock that dominated opening days of the month-long election campaign remains unclear. Unlike Canada, Australia is yet to be directly targeted by US president Trump's rhetoric on trade balances and barriers. But the global unease that has set in could assist Labor's prime minister Anthony Albanese, as he presents an image of continuity in an uncertain world economy. Australia's main exposure to Trump tariffs is via China, its largest trading partner and destination for about 35pc of exports, including metal concentrates, ores, coal and LNG. A downturn in the world's largest manufacturer would spell difficult times ahead for Australia, as it grapples with balancing its budget in a normalising commodity market. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US bill would extend expired biofuel credits

01/05/25

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01/05/25

US bill would extend expired biofuel credits

New York, 1 May (Argus) — Legislation soon to be introduced in the US House would extend expired biofuel incentives through 2026, potentially providing a reprieve to refiners that have curbed production this year because of policy uncertainty. The bill, which will be sponsored by US representative Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and some other Republicans on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, according to a person familiar, could be introduced as soon as today. It would prolong both the long-running $1/USG for blenders of biomass-based diesel and a separate incentive that offers up to $1.01/USG for producers of cellulosic ethanol. The credits expired at the end of last year but under the proposal would be extended through both 2025 and 2026. The incentives would run alongside the Inflation Reduction Act's new "45Z" credit for clean fuel producers, which offers a sliding scale of benefits based on carbon intensity, though the bill would prevent double claiming of credits, according to bill text shared with Argus . The 45Z credit is less generous across the board to road fuels — offering $1/USG only for carbon-neutral fuels and much less for crop-based diesels — and is still in need of final rules after President Joe Biden's administration issued only preliminary guidance around qualifying. The proposal then would effectively offer a more generous alternative through 2026 for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and cellulosic ethanol but not for other fuels that can claim the technology-neutral 45Z incentive. That could upend the economics of renewable fuel production. Vegetable oil-based diesels for instance could claim the blenders credit and earn more than aviation fuels that draw from the same feedstocks. According to Argus Consulting estimates, aviation fuels derived from wastes like distillers corn oil and domestic used cooking should still earn more than $1/USG this year, conversely, since 45Z is more generous to aviation fuels. Extending the biodiesel blenders credit would also allow foreign fuel imports to again claim federal subsidies, a boost for Finnish refiner Neste and the ailing Canadian biofuel startup Braya Renewable Fuels but a controversial provision for US refiners and feedstock suppliers. The 45Z incentive can only be claimed by US producers. The blenders incentive is also popular among fuel marketer groups, which have warned that shifting subsidies to producers could up fuel costs. The proposal adds to a contentious debate taking place across the biofuel value chain about what the future of clean fuel incentives should look like. Some industry groups see a wholesale reversion to preexisting biofuel credits — or even a temporary period where various partly overlapping incentives coexist — as a tough sell to cost-concerned lawmakers and have instead pushed for revamping 45Z. A proposal last month backed by some farm groups would keep the 45Z incentive but ban foreign feedstocks and adjust carbon intensity modeling to benefit crops. Republicans could keep, modify, extend, or repeal the 45Z incentive as part of negotiations around a larger tax bill this year. But the caucus is still negotiating how much to reduce the federal budget deficit and what to do with Inflation Reduction Act incentives that have spurred clean energy projects in conservative districts. Uncertainty about the future of biofuel policy and sharply lower margins to start 2025 have led to a recently pronounced drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel production . President Donald Trump's administration is working on new biofuel blend mandates, which could be proposed in the coming weeks, but has said little about its plans for biofuel tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024

30/04/25

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30/04/25

Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024

Sao Paulo, 30 April (Argus) — Brazil's mines and energy ministry's (MME) energy transition spending shrank by 83pc in 2024 from the prior year, while resources for fossil fuel incentives remained unchanged, according to the institute of socioeconomic studies Inesc. The MME's energy transition budget was R141,413 ($24,980) in 2024, down from R835,237 in the year prior. MME had only two energy transition-oriented projects under its umbrella last year: biofuels industry studies and renewable power incentives, which represented a combined 0.002pc of its total R7bn budget. Still, despite available resources, MME did not approve any projects for renewable power incentives. It also only used 50pc of its budget for biofuel studies, Inesc said. Even as supply from non-conventional power sources advances , most spending in Brazil's grid revamp — including enhancements to better integrate solar and wind generation — comes from charges paid by consumers through power tariffs, Inesc said. Diverging energy spending Brazil's federal government also cut its energy transition budget for 2025 by 17pc from last year and created a new energy transition program that also pushes for increased fossil fuel usage. The country's energy transition budget for 2025 is R3.64bn, down from R4.44bn in 2024. The new program — also under MME's umbrella — has a budget of around R10mn, with more than half of it destined to studies related to the oil and natural gas industry, Inesc said. A second MME program — which invests in studies in the oil, natural gas, products and biofuels sectors — has an approved budget of R53.1mn. The science and technology ministry is the only in Brazil that increased its energy transition spending for 2025, with R3.03bn approved, a near threefold hike from R800mn in 2024. Spending will focus on the domestic industry sector's energy transition, Inesc said. Climate activists have criticized Brazil for not planning to phase out fossil fuels before, including criticisms to the first letter written by the UN Cop 30 summit's president. The country will hold the summit in November in northern Para state. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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