近年来，再生塑料市场正由传统的低价替代向环保减碳等方面推动的高品质回收与再利用转变。阿格斯就大家比较关心的几个问题在由拾柴环境主办的第二届硬塑回收峰会前对国龙环保董事长郭家万和拾柴的创始人王韧进行了访谈：
- 中国再生塑料出口前景
- 再生塑料的食品接触应用
- 欧盟一次性塑料指令中的“镜像条款”等
您认为出口市场对您的产品有多少需求（以及针对哪些产品 - rPET、rHDPE、 rPP? 包装等级？ ) ...主要出口市场是什么？
国龙郭家万：再生塑料市场应用主要是国际品牌客户的需求，大品牌企业对环保再生产品的使用，是主动履行社会责任，通过企业的行动推动废旧塑料的回收利用。在中国市场上 国际品牌企业在这两年来一直在测试，小批量试用再生塑料，在东南亚港澳市场上开始投送再生塑料包装产品，也有很多国际品牌企业生产基地在中国，他们的出口产品基本开始使用再生塑料，在日化领域是以rHDPE、rPP为主，在食品包装上是以rPET为主而且都是需要达到食品级要求，并需要取得FDA、EFSA认证！
大多数参与者都在关注回收的食品接触材料，但中国目前不允许在食品接触应用中使用回收材料。在这种情况下，中国回收商应如何发展业务?热解是否是中国回收商的合适途径?
拾柴环境王韧：目前，中国PET回收企业的高价值产品应用主要方向是纺织纤维，工业丝和其他非食品级应用，食品级rPET产品也可以满足一些个人护理产品的特殊需求，其他食品级rPET供应还包括出口中国香港和海外市场。
热裂解在中国还在探索阶段，今年国内宣布了几个商业化项目的建设，但其运行仍有待时日，仍需市场验证。今年8月27-28日我们在上海会有一个国际硬质聚烯烃回收峰会，其中就有化学回收和热解的相关议题，大家有兴趣的可以关注参与。
欧盟正在考虑在《一次性塑料指令》中加入“镜像条款”。这意味着，欧盟外的回收商向欧盟出口材料并希望这些材料计入欧盟再生含量目标时,将被要求达到与欧洲回收商相同的原料、工艺和环境标准。你预计这一政策会如何发展?你认为这会对你的业务产生什么影响?
国龙郭家万：对于国龙再生塑料来说是没有难度的，因为国龙再生的工艺技术，生产设备，环境标准都是与欧洲相同的，也是使用消费后PCR原料，这几年来，我们经过了二十多家国际品牌公司对产品的检测，验厂，生产环境等各项要求测试，安全达到他们的要求，镜像条款对于国龙再生来说是可以做到的。但对于中国很多再生企业恐怕一定的限制。如果欧盟推动这个政策，也许会通过验厂验证“一企一策”的认证许可。
作为国内回收行业的领先企业，国龙未来的发展目标是什么，近期是否有计划投资化学法回收领域?
国龙郭家万：国龙再生经过十年的发展，现在已经建立了相当大的产能，为一系列不同的用途生产回收材料(见表)。我们成功实施了涵盖食品级和工业级产品的全产业链商业模式。
| Recycling type | Capacity (t/yr) |
| Food-grade rPET | 60,000 |
| Food-grade rHDPE | 20,000 |
| Food-grade rPP | 20,000 |
| Pipe grade recyclates | 80,000 |
| Industrial grade rHDPE | 20,000 |
您是否预计在不久的将来中国食品包装市场将开始发展再生材料市场(即法规变化)?您预计中国还会出现哪些法规变化来支持回收行业?
拾柴环境王韧：中国正在研究包装应用再生材料的安全性，这不仅仅包括再生塑料，还包括再生金属，比如易拉罐是否可以使用再生铝。本地市场也在等待相关的文件出台。
目前，国家已经出台以旧换新政策，反向发票开票政策等等，都对回收行业扩大起到促进作用，相信在垃圾分类领域，可能将是后期政府政策出台的方向。当然，建立完整的回收体系需要更多实施战略，以及更多时间来摸索发展路径和进行建设。
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US Army Corps proposes new Illinois River lock
US Army Corps proposes new Illinois River lock
Houston, 18 December (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has proposed a new lock to replace the LaGrange Lock and Dam (L&D) near Beardstown, Illinois, as part of the Navigation and Ecosystem Sustainability Program (NESP). The project would be the first new lock for NESP, a program that invests in infrastructure along the Mississippi and Illinois rivers. The new 1,200ft proposed LaGrange Lock would allow for passage of more barges in a single lockage, instead of having to split the tow in two with the current 600ft LaGrange Lock. At the moment, most tows trying to pass through the LaGrange lock experience multiple hour delays. The new LaGrange lock would have an estimated cost of $20mn, with a construction timeline of five years. The project area would be located on the west bank of the Illinois River near the 85-year old LaGrange L&D, encompassing 425 acres. Real estate acquisition, design plans and contractors are already in place, said the Corps. The current LaGrange lock would remain in operation and become an auxiliary chamber. The Corps opened the upcoming project to public comments on 11 December and will close on 3 January. NESP has four other projects along the Mississippi River. Another full lock construction project is anticipated for Lock and Dam 25. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: rHDPE packaging grade demand solid into 2025
Viewpoint: rHDPE packaging grade demand solid into 2025
London, 18 December (Argus) — A number of European recyclers report stronger demand for premium rHDPE BM grades heading into 2025, but prices and margins are likely to remain under pressure. European recyclers have endured well-publicised struggles in the past two years, but demand for rHDPE BM natural and, particularly, white grades has been the brightest spot for those operating in the polyolefin market in 2024. Prices have risen by 7-8pc over the year and — while some recyclers are keen to emphasise that contracting out their 2025 volumes has not been without its difficulties — many report that they have more orders for the coming year than they are able to supply. The closure of UK-based recycler Viridor's Avonmouth recycling plant , an rHDPE natural supplier, pushed some orders to other suppliers at the end of the year. But underlying demand also appears to be rising, and large packaging companies told Argus that they expect — based on forecasts from their customers, and with the caveat that these do not always translate into physical volumes — to be using more rHDPE in 2025 than in 2024. This shows brands are keen to further increase the recycled content of their packaging, and that many see rHDPE as a good category to focus on. But challenges remain, even for recyclers that are seeing a stronger demand outlook. Packaging manufacturers and brand owners have no legal obligation to use rHDPE in 2025, and there will be a limit to what they will pay for sustainable packaging materials. Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands' sales were hit by inflation in 2022 and 2023, and they remain cognisant of the need to find the right price point with their customers as volumes recover. As a result, decreases in the virgin HDPE market and the consequent widening of the rHDPE BM-virgin HDPE BM premium to its highest since August 2023 may become an obstacle to demand. Barring a sharp rise in crude and naphtha costs that underpin the European petrochemicals chain, Argus does not expects any major increases in HDPE prices in 2025. The potential for virgin prices to cap recyclate prices will remain for the foreseeable future. Some European recyclers are also concerned about import pressure, which is resurfacing after a lull linked to two periods of unusually-higher Asia-Europe freight rates in 2024. Asian rHDPE natural pellets have been offered up to €400-500/t ($419-$524/t) cheaper than the highest-priced European supply in recent weeks. And, although some buyers prefer the optics of supporting their regional recycling industry, or the opportunity to resolve quality issues more easily and avoid traceability concerns by working with local suppliers, this price advantage may encourage more to find import sources they are comfortable with. Recyclers also still need to find an outlet for their lower-value grades, from darker/coloured packaging grades down to grades that mainly sell into "cost-saving" markets such as pipe. A typical colour-sorting recycling process produces a range of grades, reflecting the combined natural, white and mixed-colour composition of standard HDPE packaging bales in northwest Europe. But finding a home for darker pellets can be difficult in the packaging industry, where buyers like to process white or natural grades with masterbatch colourants — concentrated pigments — to preserve the appearance of their products. And construction and industrial markets are depressed by the current economic environment and unlikely to buy large volumes unless recyclers can offer a discount to virgin material. Recyclers making premium HDPE grades may therefore feel more confident than those in other polyolefin markets heading into 2025. But until buyers are more accepting of a wide range of grades, or recently-confirmed legislation mandating the use of recyclates in polyolefin packaging kicks in, they will be under no illusion that the past few years' challenges can be consigned to the rear view mirror just yet. By Will Collins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: EU PVC margins to hold below average in 2025
Viewpoint: EU PVC margins to hold below average in 2025
London, 18 December (Argus) — European polyvinyl chloride (PVC) margins are likely to remain subdued in 2025, with a repeat of the sluggish demand and rising ethylene costs seen in 2024. Weakening European PVC consumption throughout 2024 was mainly underpinned by lower construction activity, a key demand driver. Construction purchasing managers index (PMI) data, compiled by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), show the eurozone construction PMI for 2024 peaked in October at 43.0, still way below the 50 mark that separates contraction and expansion. PVC market participants are cautiously optimistic that recent declines in interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB) may help stimulate demand for home-builds in 2025, and improved PVC demand will follow. The ECB reduced rates three times in 2024, to 3.25pc. Rates may continue to ease in the short term, but as witnessed in 2024 this would take time to filter through to European PVC demand. Because of this, buyers are contemplating either maintaining or reducing contractual PVC volume commitments for 2025, noting struggles with passing raw material costs to customers. Anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on s-PVC imports from the US and Egypt helped to reduce excess supply in 2024, and while this is likely to continue into 2025 there is limited interest from buyers to source additional supply because of lower demand. Asian s-PVC imports remained minimal, with volatility in freight costs and longer lead times likely to suppress buying interest into 2025. Re-balancing act Domestic PVC producers focused on reducing inventories and operating rates for much of 2024 to keep the market balanced, with average operating rates between 60-70pc for s-PVC production and at the higher end of the range for specialty grades. But re-balancing proved to be a slow process in light of weakening demand, forcing European producers to keep operating rates and margins low for much of the year. Argus calculated s-PVC net production margins, based on feedstock ethylene costs in northwest Europe, averaged around €287.04/t between January-November 2024, lower by €109.04/t than during the same period in 2023 and around €73.40/t lower than the Argus 2015-23 average. Easing electricity costs in 2024 helped to suppress further PVC margin loss, but demand weakness throughout the year remained in favour of buyers as contract prices settled predominantly below the implied ethylene cost. With European ethylene prices likely to increase and PVC demand expectations suppressed throughout 2025, there could be another year of below-average margins for PVC producers. Argus assessed the December suspension PVC (s-PVC) preliminary contract marker for northwest Europe at €1,120/t on 20 December, reflective of a preliminary contract delta for December at minus €5/t. This is comparable to an ethylene monthly contract price (MCP) movement of minus €7.50/t for December. This raises the possibility of further supply consolidation in Europe to re-balance the market in the medium term, with smaller producers announcing potential closure of PVC production units in central and eastern Europe in 2025. Others plan to mothball some specialty PVC production lines, while others are seeking import licenses to supply PVC into emerging markets such as India. This is difficult to achieve because of cost-competitiveness. A rise in regional construction activity, and therefore PVC demand, will remain the quickest way to re-balance the market, helping to raise operating rates and margins back to above-average levels as buyers commit to more contractual volumes. By George Barsted and Michael Vitiello Integrated s-PVC NWE net margins €/t Eurozone construction PMI Index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Japan eyes methanol as marine bridging fuel
Viewpoint: Japan eyes methanol as marine bridging fuel
Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japanese demand for methanol as an alternative marine fuel is expected to increase, especially after 2027, but it is likely it will mainly be used as a transition fuel before the commercial launch of ammonia- and hydrogen-fuelled vessels. The Japanese shipping industry is expected to launch more methanol-fuelled vessels from 2027 ( see table ), to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global maritime sector. Global regulatory body the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 2023 pledged to achieve net zero emissions in international waters by or around 2050. To help achieve the IMO's target, a total of 26 methanol-powered vessels are expected to be commissioned worldwide by the end of this year, followed by 54 ships in 2025 and 96 carriers in 2026, according to a report released in November by Japanese classification society ClassNK. This would increase global methanol demand to 4.5mn t/yr by 2026, said the report. As of June, there are 33 methanol-fuelled vessels currently in use. Methanol-fuelled vessels can refuel at around 130 major ports all over the world, except in Japan, according to Japanese shipowner Mitsui OSK Lines (Mol). The city of Yokohama in the eastern prefecture of Kanagawa, in co-operation with Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) and Maersk, launched a study on methanol and green methanol bunkering in the port of Yokohama in December 2023. Since then, the group, in collaboration with new partners — Japanese refiner Idemitsu, MGC's shipping subsidiary Kokuka Sangyo, domestic shipping firm Uyeno Transtech and Yokohama Kawasaki international port — has conducted a ship-to-ship bunkering simulation at the port of Yokohama in September. Expectations of the increase in methanol use, especially cleaner e-methanol, have led Japanese firms to become more involved in upstream projects to secure the fuel. Japanese firms have invested in more than 10 e-methanol production projects both in and outside of Japan ( see table ), with the number of projects likely to increase, according to the ministry of economy, trade and industry. Japanese firms are developing new carriers, but at the same time are also trying to modify existing vessels — which currently use fuel oil, LNG, LPG and methanol — to be able to burn renewable fuels such as biofuels, e-methane and e-methanol. It would be easy to increase the number of methanol-fuelled ships, given their relatively low initial or modification costs compared with LNG-fed vessels, according to Mol. Methanol is also a stable liquid at room temperature and atmosphere pressure, making it easy to transport and store compared to other alternative fuels, Mol added. Fellow shipping company Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK line) is also mulling the development of smaller methanol-fuelled handymax ships that are unable to be equipped with large ammonia fuel tanks, to aid with decarbonisation. Methanol a temporary solution But Japanese firms see methanol mostly as a "bridging fuel" rather than a zero-emission fuel, as methanol can reduce GHG emissions only by 15pc compared to traditional bunker fuel, although it can curb sulphur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 99pc and 80pc, respectively. It would be vital to begin introducing much cleaner marine fuels, such as ammonia and hydrogen, to meet the maritime sector's net-zero goal. Tokyo is trying to promote the development of ammonia and hydrogen-fuelled ships by providing financial support, while the utilisation of such clean vessels could materialise from around 2030, the ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism (Mlit) said. Japan's state-owned research institute Nedo plans to provide ¥35bn ($229mn) to support the development of engines, fuel tanks, fuel supply systems and other core technologies for zero-emission ships that use hydrogen and ammonia, as well as LNG and e-methane, under its ¥2.76 trillion green innovation fund. But the grants are much larger than those for the development of methanol-fuelled ships, which are currently available only from Mlit and the environment ministry, with the amount of ¥100mn per vessel over two to three years. The scheme has been open for application every year since 2023. But the ministries' scheme also targets LNG-fuelled ships, with a breakdown of allotment for methanol-powered vessels unclear. By Reina Maeda and Nanami Oki Japanese firms' methanol projects Methanol-fuelled ships Company # of vessel Type Target commercialisation Announcement Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Mitsui OSK Line 1 Ocean-going methanol carrier Jul-05 May-23 Toyofuji Shipping, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 2 Ro-Ro vessel 2027-28 fiscal year Jun-24 Mitsui OSK Line 1 Coastal methanol carrier Dec-24 Jul-24 NS United Kaiun, Nihon Shipyard, Jaman Marine United, Imabari Shipbuilding Multiple Bulk carrier After 2027-28 fiscal year May-24 Orix, Tsuneishi Shipbuilding 2 Bulk carrier Jul-24 Production Company Product Country Target commercialisation Target capacity (t/yr) Mitsui E-methanol US Jan-24 1630000 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Bio-methanol Japan Jun-24 Small amount Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Kobelco E-methanol Japan NA NA Cosmo, Toyo Engineering E-methanol Japan NA NA Sumitomo Chemical E-methanol Japan 2030s NA Mitsui, Asahi Kasei Bio-methanol US Jun-23 NA Toyo Engineering E-methanol India 2030 NA Investment Company Product Country Target commercialisation Target capacity (t/yr) Mitsui E-methanol Denmark NA 42,000 Idemitsu E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 JOGMEC E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 Mitsu OSK Line E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 Table source: Firm's company releases Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
