Canada 'confident' on unabated fossil fuels at Cop 28

Canada's environment minister Steven Guilbeault said today that he is "confident" countries "will find an agreement on unabated fossil fuels" at the UN Cop 28 climate summit later this year.

"We came very close to it last year [during Cop 27] in Sharm El-Sheik, he told Argus. "The conversation started happening maybe a bit late, which prevented us from finding a landing zone," he added. Guilbeault said that by Cop 28 parties will have had more than a year to talk about the issue.

But he added that the world will still be using fossil fuels in a "carbon neutral world in 2050", although it will be far less than today, noting that global oil demand could decrease to 25mn-30mn b/d, from around 100mn b/d today.

"Oil will mostly no longer be used for burning, but more for processes such as asphalt, solvents", he said. "We need to ensure that emissions from those fossil fuels are captured or sequestered in one way or the other," he added. He said that he expected some progress on language around these elements during Cop 28.

A report from the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) suggested that oil sands output could slow to a trickle by 2050 if Canada's net zero ambitions unfold as planned. Total oil production from Canada would be reduced to 1.2mn b/d in 2050 from 5.1mn b/d in 2022 under a global net zero scenario.

Guilbeault also confirmed today that Canada will contribute a further C$450mn ($341mn) to the UN Green Climate Fund (GCF), a dedicated climate change fund established by the Paris international climate agreement to help developing countries. Guilbeault said the pledge represented a 50pc increase from the country's previous commitment. The additional funding brings Canada's climate finance commitment to $5.3bn over five years from 2021.

Developed countries have come under fire after missing a goal set in 2009 to provide $100bn/yr in climate financing to developing countries by 2020. And although the goal is likely to be achieved this year, this led to a crisis of trust in the Cop process, with some countries saying that developed countries should already be focusing on a new target. By 2025 a new goal — the so-called new collective quantified goal — on climate finance should be set with $100bn/yr as its floor.

Guilbeault said conversations are only "just starting" on the levels of climate finance that developed countries plan to provide post-2025. "We can always do better," he said, noting that funds provided are not enough.

Once the OECD has confirmed "early indications" that developed countries' climate finance has hit the missed 2020 target this year, Guilbeault sees discussions starting to go beyond $100bn/yr. But widening the donor base from developed countries remains a "difficult" conversation. "There's not a lot of openness on the part of many who are not now donors, or serious donors, to ramp up efforts," Guilbeault said.

European Commission executive vice-president Frans Timmermans said that the UN climate summit Cop president-designate, Sultan al-Jaber, is going to be "very clear" on reducing unabated fossil fuels.

Timmermans said al-Jaber, who is also the chief executive of UAE's state-owned Adnoc, is "ambitious" on reaching climate targets, and that reducing unabated fossil fuels is an "important element" to reach net zero.

Timmermans, al-Jaber and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) executive secretary Simon Stiell, together with Canada's environment minister Steven Guilbeault and China's environment minister Huang Runqiu will convene a ministerial on climate action in Brussels on 13 and 14 July.

By Dafydd ab Iago