A pair of Atlantic coast refinery turnarounds are expected to take up to 500,000 b/d of refining capacity offline from September to November, but the US markets they serve are expected to remain stable barring unplanned outages.
Irving Oil is planning a turnaround at its 320,000 b/d Saint John, New Brunswick, refinery that is expected to last seven weeks starting 17 September. The Saint John refinery, Canada's largest, sends more than half of its finished products to the US Atlantic coast.
Delta Airlines' 190,000 b/d Trainer, Pennsylvania, refinery — operated by its subsidiary Monroe Energy — will undergo maintenance at the same time.
The Monroe refinery has told fuel buyers it plans to honor contracted volumes at 100pc allocations during the turnaround, but that spot market supply will be limited.
Irving has not communicated an allocation plan to fuel buyers, one marketer active in New England told Argus.
Regardless, energy and fuels consultant Don Draizin said he thinks the concurrent turnarounds do not pose a significant risk to Atlantic coast fuel markets. Contracted buyers are likely to see no disruption to their supply, whereas companies buying in the spot market could face limited availability or higher prices.
"This is business as usual," fuel distributor Global Partners, which operates multiple terminals across the Atlantic coast, told Argus.
Neither PBF Energy's 171,000 b/d Delaware City, Delaware, refinery nor its 160,000 b/d Paulsboro, New Jersey, refinery have planned turnarounds in the second half of 2023, while Phillips 66's 259,000 b/d Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, returned to normal operations on 20 July following repairs to a fluid catalytic cracking unit.
United Refining's 65,000 b/d Warren, Pennsylvania, refinery has no planned maintenance for the remainder of the year, an individual familiar with operations told Argus.
Still, with Atlantic coast gasoline and diesel inventories below five year averages, an unplanned refinery outage could limit fuel supply and push prices higher, with non-contracted buyers seeing the biggest disruption to prices and availability of refined products.
