Australia risks missing 2030 emissions target: CCA

Australia's Climate Change Authority (CCA) said the country is not yet on track to meet its 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cut targets, it warned in its progress report timed to coincide with the government's annual climate change statement.

Australia's GHG emissions were 467mn t in the 2022-23 year to 30 June, an increase of 4mn t on the previous period as the nation's economy recovered in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. To decarbonise Australia must reduce emissions by 17mn t/yr by 2050 and by the same amount by 2030 to meet its 43pc target.

The slowing pace of renewables investment has been identified by the CCA's 2023 Annual Progress Report as a critical handbrake on Australia's chances of meting its ambitions.

Australia's 2030 target relies heavily on reaching 82pc renewable electricity grid penetration, with the CCA arguing further action to support projects and more emphasis on emissions reductions elsewhere in the economy are needed.

"Achieving the 82pc renewable energy target is going to be crucial for Australia's ability to meet the 43pc emissions reduction target. This will require some heavy lifting," CCA chief executive Brad Archer said on 30 November. "Renewables have been rolling out at a fast rate. But we have to go even faster, all around Australia."

The renewables build, needed to rid the nation of coal-fired power plants, was threatened by concern about the border environmental impact of infrastructure on homes and communities, Archer said.

Assumed development times including planning and approvals were 3-5 years for a wind farm and 2-3 years for a solar farm in scenarios plotted by the Australian Energy Market Operator in 2022, the CCA report said.

But the government will meet its aim, energy and climate change minister Chris Bowen maintained in his annual climate change speech to Australia's federal parliament.

"With policies we have announced, and are in the process of implementing, Australia's emissions are projected to be 42pc below 2005 levels in 2030 compared to 40pc in last year's projections," Bowen said on 30 November.

The CCA made 42 recommendations to the government in the report including developing a plan with the states for reaching 82pc renewables, enabling faster approvals for green power projects and paying farmers to lower agricultural emissions, of which 39 were accepted by the federal government. But three suggestions, including banning internal combustion vehicles vehicles by 2040 through a zero emissions intensity fuel standard, banning new gas connections and considering adopting fuel efficiency standards for heavy transport vehicles will not be adopted.

By Tom Major