Indonesia's coal exports edge higher in April

Indonesia's coal exports in April edged higher from a year earlier, led by a growth in shipments to India and southeast Asia.

The country exported 44.54mn t of coal in April, up by 2.2pc from a year earlier, customs data show. But the exports fell from 46.1mn t in March. The data includes all types of coal such as thermal as well as coking coal.

Indonesia exported about 175.58mn t of coal in January-April, up from 168.5mn t during the same period a year earlier. The country could export a total of 526.68mn t this year at the current pace of 43.89mn t/month, up from 521.1mn t a year earlier, according to Argus calculations based on the customs data.

The year-on-year increase in April exports was mainly supported by a rise in demand from India, the world's second-largest coal importer, as utilities there looked to bulk up purchases to replenish stocks for the summer season. Shipments to India in April rose by 8.5pc on the year and by 4.8pc on the month to 11.03mn t, according to the data. The exports were supported by strong demand from utilities with an increase in coal-fired generation. India's overall coal-fired generation — which meets most of the country's power requirements — rose to 116.5TWh in April, up from 106TWh a year earlier, according to data from the country's Central Electricity Authority. April's coal-fired generation was also higher than March's 112.5TWh because heatwaves led to increased air-conditioning use.

Indonesian exports also rose to cater for increased demand from southeast Asia. Exports to the region in April rose by 36pc on the year and by 21pc from March to 11.03mn t. This was led by a steady rise in exports to Vietnam, where shipments more than doubled to 2.86mn t from 1.35mn t a year earlier and 2.03mn t in March. The demand was led by utilities as coal-fired generation rose to around 16.5TWh in April, up from an estimated 11.89TWh a year earlier, to cater for an increase in power demand during the dry season. Vietnamese coal imports reached 6.5mn t in May, up from 4.97mn t a year earlier, and from 5.9mn t in April, provisional customs data show.

Shipments to China — the world's largest coal importer — accounted for nearly 35pc of Indonesian exports at 15.57mn t, down from 18.5mn t a year earlier and 19.26mn t in March. The drop came as Chinese utilities slowed down purchases of seaborne cargoes in line with the softness in thermal power generation. China's thermal power generation, which mainly uses coal, fell to 454TWh in May from 471TWh a year earlier and 459TWh in April, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. China's imports of thermal coal — including non-coking bituminous coal, sub-bituminous coal, and lignite — totalled 32.7mn t, down from 31.4mn t a year earlier and from 32.9mn t in May, Chinese customs data show.

Output rises

A rise in Indonesian coal production supported higher exports in January-April. Output during the period rose to 266.1mn t, up by 9.2pc from a year earlier, according to data from the country's energy ministry (ESDM). But the output in May and June is estimated to have slipped, taking the year-to-date tally to about 371mn t, down by 2.5pc from a year earlier. The data will likely be revised, as output is frequently reviewed in Indonesia because of a lag in some producers' reporting.

Indonesian output could face pressure from heavy rains in parts of key coal-producing Kalimantan region, while production cutbacks could also affect overall production. Some coal producers could trim output in response to ongoing prices in the international market. Argus assessed Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal at $52.86/t fob Kalimantan on 28 June, down by 6.4pc from $57.50/t on 8 March, the highest level for 2024. It is also sharply down from a 2023 peak of $90.41/t in January last year. Weaker output could dent the export trajectory, but coal exports in May are estimated at 44.12mn t, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler, up from 41.47mn t a year earlier.

By Saurabh Chaturvedi

Indonesian coal exports (mn t)

Indonesia Jan-Apr coal exports by destination (mn t)