CCUS, hydrogen manage expectations ahead of Cop 29

The final text from last year's UN Cop 28 climate summit in Dubai included a nod to carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) and "low-carbon hydrogen" production — a first mention for both in Cop outcome texts and rare specificity. But these developing technologies have made little tangible progress since the conference, with few new commercial CCUS projects announced, while investment in hydrogen has slowed.

Hydrogen industry participants are not predicting immediate strides forward for the sector at Cop 29, scheduled to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November — industry association Hydrogen Europe is managing expectations for the event, and is already pinning hopes on next year's Cop 30, in Brazil. But it may benefit indirectly from the summit's higher-level initiatives, such as boosting energy transition finance and spurring bilateral carbon credit trading, they say.

Baku may struggle to meet the high bar set at last year's Cop, which was described as a "historical moment" by industry group the Hydrogen Council. Perhaps in tacit recognition that hydrogen will be out of the limelight in Azerbaijan — which lacks robust ambitions for the technology — Hydrogen Europe has its hopes pinned on broader initiatives to give the sector a leg-up.

Azerbaijan's aim to set up a climate fund bankrolled by fossil fuel companies and oil-producing country governments would be welcome, Hydrogen Europe chief executive Jorgo Chatzimarkakis says. Details of the potential fund are not clear, but it could back renewables, as well as supporting countries struggling to adapt to climate change.

Progress at Cop 29 in finalising the details of the Paris Agreement's Article 6 — which allows countries to transfer carbon credits earned from cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to help other countries meet their climate targets — would "benefit hydrogen big time", Chatzimarkakis adds. It could help to unlock projects in hydrogen-hopeful countries such as Namibia and Mauritania, which have plentiful sun, wind and space but lack straightforward access to finance, he says.

For African countries, securing finance is the "single most critical challenge" in sustainable development, the African Climate Foundation says. The continent receives less than 3pc of global renewables investment and its governments will make a "concerted push" for more access to financing at Cop 29, the foundation's energy access and transitions programme manager, Sahele Fekede, says.

Hydrogen's bubble deflating?

But access to finance is only part of the battle, as several hydrogen-focused investment funds were already established at previous Cops, and governments have earmarked generous subsidy schemes for the sector. The biggest bottleneck this year appears to be commercially viable projects with confirmed customers.

The industry has experienced sluggish progress over the past 12-18 months — far from the frenzy of projects and partnerships announced at Cop 27 in 2022, when hydrogen optimism ran high. Firms and governments have pulled back on hydrogen targets recently, but Cop 29 could see some new announcements. And a recent rise in hydrogen investment decisions in Europe, India and Canada, worth billions of dollars collectively, may mean the industry is turning a corner.

Cop 29 offers the chance for "material advancements" for hydrogen in global technical standards and certification solutions, Hydrogen Council chief executive Ivana Jemelkova says. But 39 governments pledged to support mutual recognition of hydrogen certificates at Cop 28, so it is doubtful if anything more could be presented on this front in Baku. Key governments also endorsed the first set of technical standards to measure the CO2 footprint of different hydrogen plants at Cop 28 — a vital step to underpin certification. But work to expand this CO2 methodology to cover the midstream section is not expected until 2025-26.

Implementing clear "demand drivers" must be the other "critical" talking point, Jemelkova says. Market participants see a lack of willingness to pay for clean hydrogen stifling investment decisions. In contrast, demand within the CCUS industry appears strong, with significant numbers of industrial emitters committing to capture CO2, and setting up pilot projects, while most oil and gas producers are diversifying to some extent into CO2 storage. But subsidy schemes are still under development in many countries and the sector's evolution is often hampered by logistical challenges — getting the capture, storage and transport elements ready simultaneously.

The vast majority of CCUS and carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities are at the planning stage, and many have not yet started construction. Of the almost 840 CCS facilities mapped by energy watchdog the IEA, just 51 are operational. Of these, 10 sequester the CO2 in dedicated storage, while the CO2 from a further six will be used. These 16 plants have announced a combined maximum capacity of 12.7mn t/yr CO2, IEA data show.

Carbon capture controversy

CCUS and CCS projects frequently attract criticism. They are used to justify continued fossil fuel use and delay action on cutting GHG emissions, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) say. The technology, while cautiously backed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's overarching climate science reports, is not fully proven at scale for climate purposes, and can be energy-intensive. Oil-producing countries often cite the technology at climate talks, arguing the need to reduce emissions from oil and gas use rather than removing the source of those emissions. The specific language on CCUS in the Cop 28 outcome text is likely to have been included to mollify fossil fuel-producing countries.

The EU was clear ahead of Cop 28, setting a firm position that CCS or CCUS should play a minor role in tackling climate change. Use of fossil fuels with CCUS should only be an option for "specific hard-to-abate sectors", EU climate commis sioner Wopke Hoekstra said. He doubled down during the summit, telling delegates that "we cannot CCS ourselves out of the space" to address climate change.

But the bloc has since released a proposed carbon management strategy that leans heavily on CCUS to hit ambitious climate goals — although work would have started on the plan well before Cop 28. The EU aims to map potential CO2 storage areas and wants carbon capture to cover all industrial process emissions by 2040.

Europe — including non-EU members Norway, Iceland and the UK — is by far the region furthest ahead, with significant CO2 storage potential and the resources to drive a nascent industry. The past year has seen some new CO2 storage licences awarded, and incremental progress on subsidy frameworks, but a lack of commercial agreements and concrete decisions persists, while start dates for existing developments have been pushed back.

Both CCUS and hydrogen are developing industries and need substantial investment — from the private sector, but also public funding to de-risk an emerging market. Just five jurisdictions — the US, EU, Canada, Norway and the Netherlands — are responsible for 95pc of public funding for CCS and "fossil hydrogen" to date, NGO Oil Change International says, putting subsidies for the technologies at $30bn in total. Finance will be the "centrepiece" of Cop 29, and given previous mention in a Cop text, CCUS and hydrogen are both well positioned to receive energy transition funding. But the industries also need mandates, subsidies and widely used regulatory frameworks to advance.

By Georgia Gratton, Pamela Machado and Aidan Lea