The most powerful short-term contributor to greenhouse gas emissions might get short shrift in Baku, writes Rhys Talbot
Momentum on methane emissions reductions from the oil, gas and coal sectors might be dwindling as Azerbaijan, which holds the presidency of the UN Cop 29 summit in Baku next month, turns its focus on waste.
The Cop 28 talks in Dubai last year could have been a turning point for methane emissions. The conference saw the launch of the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, which was signed by more than 50 oil and gas companies. They represent 43pc of world oil output and aim at near-zero methane emissions from operations and zero routine flaring by 2030. The summit's final text called on countries to accelerate and cut "non-carbon dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030".
Methane emissions have long been an underexamined contributor to global warming because of difficulties in detecting and measuring often trace amounts of the powerful greenhouse gas (GHG). But Cop 26 put methane under the spotlight. The Global Methane Pledge (GMP) saw signatories, including the US, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, commit to reducing their overall methane emissions by 30pc by 2030. New countries joined in Dubai and more followed, including Azerbaijan, with the pledge counting 158 participants in March this year.
Individual states unveiled unilateral efforts, as the US and Canada presented regulations that could cut methane emissions from hydrocarbons by 75-80pc by the end of the decade. Egypt and Brazil — Cop 27 and 30 hosts, respectively — promised national action plans. But while the energy sector accounts for 36pc of man-made methane emissions, oil and gas producer Azerbaijan has turned its focus on waste, calling on parties to join its Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste in November. The programme will supplement the GMP, it says. Countries signing the commitment must agree to reduce methane emissions from organic waste in future nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — but it is unclear if this will include the next iteration of them. And, unlike the GMP, the new commitment does not include any concrete emissions-reduction goal.
Top trumps
The initiative could be seen as an attempt to skirt the biggest issues, and the most controversial ones. The waste sector accounted for only 20pc of human-generated methane emissions last year. Methane emissions from sectors other than hydrocarbons are undoubtedly a problem. Livestock account for 31pc of man-made methane emissions, a larger contribution than oil and gas combined, according to NGO Greenpeace. Agriculture accounted for 40pc of methane emissions last year. The pollutant's warming potential is most acute in the short term, so proven reduction techniques could be an effective win. Countries such as the UK have cut methane emissions from waste by 75pc since the 1990s, by reducing landfill waste and installing landfill methane capturing equipment.
Progress at Cop 29 might be iterative, with more countries joining the GMP and announcing cuts including methane in NDCs. But there is little scope for improvement on the latter, with 91pc of countries already including the gas in their plans. And some major emitters of methane remain outside the GMP. China, which on its own accounts for more than 15pc of global methane emissions, is not a member. Neither are the second and fourth-largest emitters India and Russia. China's recent guidelines to accelerate its energy transition did not provide any details on methane cuts. The country has yet to set firm methane-reduction targets, although it agreed in November 2023 to set goals to cover all GHGs. And in the US, regulations to restrict methane emissions are likely to be at risk if Donald Trump wins the presidential election next month.
