India proposes provisional s-PVC anti-dumping duties

India is proposing to implement anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on suspension polyvinyl chloride (s-PVC) imports originating from China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and the US.

These will apply to s-PVC imports with a k-value of between 55 and 77, excluding cross-linked PVC, chlorinated PVC, paste PVC, mass PVC, co-polymer PVC and blending resins.

Indian authorities are inviting interested parties to submit comments on the proposal within 30 days of publication in the Indian Gazette, which happened on 30 October. It is unclear when the ADDs will be implemented, with participants anticipating potential introduction towards the end of the fourth quarter for now.

These preliminary findings come after an initial anti-dumping investigation on s-PVC imports was initiated by three out of five Indian s-PVC producers on 26 March. Current findings show there is a significant disparity between domestic and import s-PVC prices in India, with margins by the investigated countries forming the basis of the proposed ADDs.

The investigation suggests these duties would provide a future level playing field between s-PVC exporters into India and local s-PVC producers, with the former having increased market share in India over recent years while the latter faced elevated inventories and poor margins.

ADDs on paste PVC and chlorinated PVC imports to India are already in place.

India set to become self-sufficient on supply

The Indian market is, and will likely remain, one of the largest PVC demand drivers globally for years to come. Indian demand for PVC is set to grow to 5mn t/yr by 2027, with imports surpassing 3.2mn t in 2023 and likely to replicate that this year.

The global market is long on PVC supply, and with Indian output at 1.6mn t/yr, local producers are willing to increase capacity and regain market share from imports.

Argus estimates India will increase domestic PVC capacity across various grades by 3.8mn t/yr by 2028, which would surpass current annual imports and provide additional selling opportunities for future demand growth.

ADDs on s-PVC imports are one way for this new PVC capacity to easily find a home among Indian plastic converters, many of which now import large amounts of more competitively priced s-PVC from northeast Asia and north America to fulfill their requirements.

Lower PVC production cash costs in these regions allowed exporters to gain favourable market share in India over recent years, but proposed ADDs will probably limit this growth in the long-term. Upcoming BIS quality restrictions will also contribute to a drop in imports, albeit to a lesser extent presuming regular exporters to India are certified by the date of implementation, since this would mainly target PVC grades produced from the carbide-route, which are already being imported less into India due to quality concerns.

All these factors are likely to create renewed import competition into the Indian market over the coming years, leading global participants to consider potential rationalisation of some PVC capacity, delays to new capacity projects and new demand outlets, should global supply remain above overall consumption.

By Michael Vitiello